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#PCEToJacksonHole July core PCE came in exactly as expected: 3.3% YoY and 0.2% MoM. Inflation didn’t accelerate, but it also didn’t give the Fed much reason to relax 😮‍💨 At the same time, Q2 GDP growth held at just 1.5% annualized. That combination feels awkward—price pressures remain above target while growth is already losing momentum. What caught my attention is that September hike odds still edged higher. The data itself wasn’t especially hawkish, but without a clearer policy framework, markets seem to be treating uncertainty as a reason for caution 📊 That makes Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks on Friday more important than usual. I’m less interested in whether he sounds “hawkish” or “dovish” and more interested in how he weighs inflation against weaker growth and jobs. Right now, the numbers support patience—but they don’t make the decision easy.