Publikovat

This replaces my usual Sunday update, as I’ll be on vacation for a few days. Right now, I believe two things: 1. The bear market is over. 2. The next 4 weeks could be absolute hell to trade. And both can be true at the same time. As I mentioned on Friday, $ETH was the asset to watch - potentially the leading horse. Today, ETH printed a bullish CHOCH on the daily. To me, that’s the first major heads-up that higher-timeframe market structure has shifted and the bear market may be behind us. But I do NOT expect price to simply go straight up from here. $BTC and $ETH are currently showing an SMT divergence, while both are trading into major HVNs acting as resistance. That makes me believe we could be approaching a temporary ceiling. So what happens next? I don’t think the entire 4-day rally gets immediately sold off. Instead, my base case is several weeks of frustrating chop: -> Sideways pa -> Violent rotations -> Failed breakouts Both bulls and bears getting punished. The Single Prints (SP) below are the key support I’m watching. If they hold, I can see Bitcoin building what will eventually look like a large “Bart” pattern before one final aggressive flush lower. For BTC, the $64K–$67K region is the key area I’m watching as a potential Last Point of Support (LPS). In my view, that could become the final shakeout needed to complete the larger Wyckoff accumulation. If that happens, the move lower won’t be as bearish as it looks. My bigger-picture expectation for Q4 remains extremely bullish. I believe that final shakeout could set the stage for a massive expansion higher - with Bitcoin eventually reclaiming 100K+. Bear market over. Maximum frustration first. Then expansion.