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布伦特原油91美元。比2022年的120美元低了一大截。但你家楼下的柴油，已经涨到5.47美元一加仑了。距历史峰值只差6%。你不是在问：油价没到历史最高，为什么柴油快创纪录了？因为你盯错了价格。大多数人只盯着原油。但真正决定通胀走向的，是另一个数字——裂解价差。裂解价差是什么？大白话：炼厂把一桶原油变成柴油，能赚多少差价。去年全年，这个数字平均是24美元。本周一，102.2美元。正常水平的5倍。过去六个交易日，五个交易日刷新历史纪录。今年之前，这项指标从未超过89美元。2022年俄乌战争最凶的时候都没有。现在，三位数。这102美元意味着什么？意味着同样一桶油，炼厂赚的利润是正常水平的5倍。这笔钱谁出？开卡车的、种地的、送快递的、供暖的——每一个终端消费者。柴油不是你在加油站看到的那个数字。柴油是：卡车运到你餐桌上的每一斤菜收割机收下来的每一粒粮食工厂机器转动的每一度电冬天你家里的每一度暖柴油涨价，不是你去加油多花50块。是所有东西都涨价。为什么会这样？三重冲击同时砸下来。第一重：俄罗斯。乌克兰无人机持续袭击俄罗斯炼油厂，俄罗斯已经把柴油出口禁令延长到了明年1月。俄罗斯是全球最大精炼燃料出口国之一——这条管道断了。第二重：中东。美伊60天停火协议8月17日到期，特朗普拒绝延长。伊朗说要采取全面进攻战略。霍尔木兹海峡实际处于封锁状态。周一只有6艘大宗商品船通过，低于10日均值11艘，没有一艘超大型油轮。第三重：炼能。国际能源署数据显示，7月全球炼油厂原油加工量平均每天8090万桶，比去年同期骤降500万桶/日。原油不缺。缺的是能把原油变成柴油的工厂。而美国库存呢？截至8月7日，包括柴油和取暖油在内的馏分燃料库存1.071亿桶——1996年以来同期最低。 30年最低。现在最可怕的是什么？北半球正在进入收割季。农业机械对柴油的消耗马上暴涨。然后冬天来了，取暖油需求再涨一波。然后炼厂进入季节性检修，产能再少一波。三重需求叠加，供应缺口只会越来越大。更扎心的是——柴油的需求对价格几乎没反应。汽油贵了你可以少开车。柴油贵了？卡车不能不跑、收割机不能不开、工厂不能停工。没有替代方案。说回我们手里的东西。通胀预期一旦被柴油点燃，美债收益率就会上行。10年期美债收益率正在往5%的方向走。风险资产承压。但另一边—— 美元指数周一跌到了99.29，两个半月低点。美元走弱，在给比特币提供底部支撑。比特币现在6.4万美元上下。一边是通胀推高收益率的压力，一边是美元走弱的支撑。 BTC正卡在两股力量的中间。最后说句实在话。别只看WTI和布伦特。原油价格是情绪。裂解价差才是现实。 91美元的油价不会让你碗里的饭涨价。102美元的裂解价差会。这个数字已经创了历史。问题是——它会停在这里，还是继续往上？高盛说冬季前柴油短缺风险超过原油本身。美国银行说市场“几乎没有误差空间”地进入需求最强季。冬天还没来。收割季刚开始。 $BTC $BZ $CL

Today, the hardest-to-win new stock in A-share history, winning one lot earns 470,000 yuan Today, there is only one protagonist in the A-share market. Yushu Technology, 688836, STAR Market. Opened at 1100 yuan/share, surged 629.44%. Market cap directly hit 444.9 billion yuan. One lot is 500 shares, maximum profit 474,600 yuan. You read that right, 470,000 yuan. 75,000 yuan principal turned into 550,000 yuan at opening. This return rate silences even contract traders. But what's crazier is—you basically can't win. 9.7846 million people participated in the online subscription, breaking the STAR Market record. What’s the winning rate? 0.0181%. 1.8 per 10,000. Less than two winners out of ten thousand people. The abandonment rate is as low as 0.09%, a new low since the A-share registration system. Those who win absolutely won’t sell. This is the hardest new stock to win in A-share history, bar none. Issue P/E ratio is 219 times, while the industry average is only 38 times. Nearly 6 times more expensive. But the market doesn’t care—still snapped up at opening. Who got insanely rich? Wang Xingxing, born in 1990, founder of Yushu. Direct and indirect holdings about 30%, net worth over 108.8 billion yuan. The new richest post-90s. The previous richest post-90s had 20.2 billion yuan—directly 5 times less. Lei Jun, Shunwei Capital affiliate holds 16.106 million shares, unrealized gains over 15.2 billion yuan. Meituan group, three main entities combined hold shares, unrealized gains over 33.3 billion yuan. Liang Wenfeng, Deep Exploration + Magic Square Quant + Jiuzhang Asset allocated 1.19 million shares, unrealized gains over 1.1 billion yuan. Also, 23 Yushu employees hold shares through strategic placement, net worth directly over ten million yuan. The 1 yuan/share option agreement back then now has unrealized gains over 150 times. Who’s crying? DJI. Had the chance to participate in Yushu’s capital increase in 2018 but didn’t invest. If invested then, calculated at opening price—missed out on over 25 billion yuan. 25 billion yuan, how many drones could that buy? Here’s a painful truth. This wealth creation feast has nothing to do with most people. 9.78 million applied, fewer than 1,800 won. What you see is the 470,000 yuan winning profit, what you don’t see is 9.78 million people losing out. Some are counting money, some are jealous, some are cursing their bad luck. Did you win the new stock? Post a screenshot in the comments, let me see who the chosen one among the 0.018% is. If you didn’t win, don’t leave—give a like, catch some luck, next time it could be you. $ETH $BTC $SNDK