المنشور

Yes — the historical pattern supports the idea that ETH may be getting closer to a major bottom, but it does not confirm that the bottom is already in. One important correction: ETH’s historical drawdowns were roughly 94% in 2018 and 79% in 2022. Current data shows the 2025–26 drawdown around ~62–68%, depending on the data source and exact peak/trough used. So your core idea is reasonable: 🔻 2018: ~94% 🔻 2022: ~79% 🔻 Current: ~62–68% so far 📉 If the current cycle eventually reaches ~70–75%, that would suggest another ~5–13 percentage points of downside from the current drawdown. But drawdown percentages alone aren't enough to call the bottom. ETH could bottom before 70–75%, or overshoot it. Recent analysis has also pointed to the possibility of further downside before a durable recovery. Bottom line: 🧐 ETH may be entering a late-stage capitulation zone, but confirmation should come from price structure, volume, and a sustained reclaim of important resistance—not simply the historical percentage pattern.