The announcement was made, all as expected, with mild inflation. This further dispels expectations of a rate hike in September.
However, CME shows about a 38% chance of a rate hike in September. Although it's below 50%, it still makes the market uneasy, especially since oil prices remain above 80 (actually, event information is still needed to further reduce this rate hike probability).
Personally, I think a rate hike in September is still unlikely.
US stock market opened with the S&P index rebounding, #SKHY also rose above 150, and I'm still waiting to see if #SPCX can break above 140. If it does, I'll prepare to exit. After all, there is another unlocking next week.
Although this data is good, the market is still worried about geopolitics and oil prices.
I'm going to watch the official news live broadcast and the official commentators' interpretations. Recently, geopolitical escalation is unlikely, and the US may return to economic sanctions. Trump might also be frustrated because he can't strike and wants a quick victory, but Iran is stubborn. The market's patience is running thin, and oil prices have not continued to fall.
But with the midterm elections approaching and inflation conditions, Trump definitely doesn't want to see increased rate hike expectations before the midterms (November).
So the goal is to reduce inflation, which means de-escalating geopolitics, easing tensions, making peace talks, and lowering oil prices.
Trump really doesn't have much time left. At least both sides hope to negotiate because there are no further military actions.
This is also why, although recently there have been many short-term users causing unfriendly fees (recently around 0.03, previously always 0), I still hold short positions. If given another chance, I will really close them. I've held for over a month and experienced several rollercoaster rides.
DYOR
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