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DL_W59
DL_W59
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海力士 #SKHY 167,可惜 154就走了。 #SPCX 确实站上140了。不过前面 143左右走了,毕竟马上下周20日又有解禁潮,博弈性就很大。先出观察一下 $CL 就只剩下油价 #WTI 空单子啦。晚上 PPI数据都低于预期,截止发文前9月加息预期继续被打消,约35%以下。但还是有点高 虽然有个别官员再喊加息,但都是预期管理,还在博弈,尤其是这个月的通胀数据,得9月才出来,所以这个月的油价也至关重要。 目前美伊也只在外交层面的强硬,也并没有升级军事行动 而且晚间油价还一度跌破80美金 但市场的耐心也慢慢消散,得快速解决地缘或者让霍尔木兹海峡通航,对于通胀下行,对于将加息预期继续打消到20%以下才是积极的 不然这个加息博弈会一直让市场担忧,也会一直压着风险市场,美股或许因为财报,产品利好炒作,流动性好一点会走势乐观些 但大饼就很无聊的行情了。 所以我个人也是美股现货先出来看看。再找机会。 DYOR
DL_W59
DL_W59
The announcement was made, all as expected, with mild inflation. This further dispels expectations of a rate hike in September. However, CME shows about a 38% chance of a rate hike in September. Although it's below 50%, it still makes the market uneasy, especially since oil prices remain above 80 (actually, event information is still needed to further reduce this rate hike probability). Personally, I think a rate hike in September is still unlikely. US stock market opened with the S&P index rebounding, #SKHY also rose above 150, and I'm still waiting to see if #SPCX can break above 140. If it does, I'll prepare to exit. After all, there is another unlocking next week. Although this data is good, the market is still worried about geopolitics and oil prices. I'm going to watch the official news live broadcast and the official commentators' interpretations. Recently, geopolitical escalation is unlikely, and the US may return to economic sanctions. Trump might also be frustrated because he can't strike and wants a quick victory, but Iran is stubborn. The market's patience is running thin, and oil prices have not continued to fall. But with the midterm elections approaching and inflation conditions, Trump definitely doesn't want to see increased rate hike expectations before the midterms (November). So the goal is to reduce inflation, which means de-escalating geopolitics, easing tensions, making peace talks, and lowering oil prices. Trump really doesn't have much time left. At least both sides hope to negotiate because there are no further military actions. This is also why, although recently there have been many short-term users causing unfriendly fees (recently around 0.03, previously always 0), I still hold short positions. If given another chance, I will really close them. I've held for over a month and experienced several rollercoaster rides. DYOR

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