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babala又赚钱了
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#海力士推进NAND扩产,存储供给预期上升 $SKHYNIX $SNDK $MU
海力士今天开盘后一路拉升,我的空单也止损了。
这波并不是单纯的技术反弹。昨夜美股存储链已经集体走强:海力士ADR涨4.70%、闪迪涨2.68%、希捷涨2.44%、美光涨0.87%,同期纳指却下跌0.60%,说明资金在独立回流存储板块。
今早又叠加海力士关联公司持有铠侠14.19%股份的消息,市场将其解读为海力士间接成为铠侠第一大股东,进一步强化了海力士在NAND领域的想象空间。
韩股现货实际开盘涨约2.18%,短暂回踩后承接非常强,盘中涨幅迅速扩大至6%以上。SKHX突破1055—1060后,又触发了一轮空头止损和回补,最终形成加速上涨。
所以这次上涨是“存储板块共振+公司利好+空头回补”共同推动的。止损没有问题,真正值得复盘的是:现金市场开盘前的技术结构,遇到新增利好重新定价时,参考价值会明显下降。
$MU $SNDK $SKHYNIX
Storage opens tonight: most stocks turn green, but it cannot yet be defined as a reversal
After the U.S. stock market opened tonight, the storage sector did not continue to collectively plunge but showed a clear differentiated recovery.
✔ SK Hynix ADR rose about 2.9%
✔ SanDisk rose about 1.2%
✔ Western Digital and Seagate both rose about 0.8%
✔ Micron fell about 0.8%
✔ Nvidia rose about 0.9%
On the surface, most stocks turned green, but the sector is not consistent internally.
SanDisk received a buy rating with a target price of $1600, combined with last week's continuous sharp decline, driving an oversold rebound in NAND and HDD directions; SK Hynix ADR performed the strongest, indicating that the HBM and undervaluation logic still have capital support.
But the real focus remains on Micron.
Micron once surged to 877.5 after the open, then quickly fell back to around 845, and has not yet stood back above the previous closing price. This indicates that capital is willing to bottom-fish flash memory and SK Hynix but is still cashing out high-position chips in Micron.
✔ Key prices tonight
Micron: 845 support, 870–878 resistance
SanDisk: 1230 support, 1285 resistance
Western Digital: 432 support, 448–450 resistance
SK Hynix ADR: 135–136 support, 140–141 resistance
For the storage sector to upgrade from "oversold recovery" to "trend reversal," Micron first needs to firmly stand above 870–878, while SanDisk and SK Hynix ADR break through their opening highs.
For SK Hynix contracts, tonight's ADR rise will bring short-term rebound pressure, so I will not chase shorts near 1000.
If the rebound is blocked again at 1015–1030, consider adding positions; 1045–1055 remains a more ideal strong resistance zone. On the downside, only breaking below 980–970 will reopen 950; if 950 continues to fail, the final target looks at 930.
✔ Trading iron rule
Never bet on the first candlestick of the open, because the win rate could be zero.
Tonight's open has again proven: prices can first surge, then plunge sharply, and then continue to rebound. Let the first round of long-short clearing end, then decide based on resistance and support.
My judgment remains unchanged: tonight is an oversold recovery, not a trend reversal. The rebound only provides position, it does not mean the overall direction has changed.
Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more
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