Post

Valuation surged from 9 billion to 20 billion in 9 months, but Polymarket's nightmare is just beginning Last October, valuation was 9 billion. This April, valuation was 15 billion. Now, raising another 1 billion at a valuation exceeding 20 billion. In 9 months, a triple jump. From 9 billion to over 20 billion, more than doubled. What does this mean? This valuation is nearly catching up with Chobani and Perplexity. Worth more than all US-listed sports betting companies combined. A platform built on "gambling" is valued higher than legitimate publicly traded betting companies. Isn't that absurd? But don't rush to cheer. Look at some numbers: Polymarket's US platform launched six weeks ago, annualized revenue surpassed 1 billion USD. June update — annualized revenue has exceeded 1.2 billion USD. US daily trading volume soared from 50 million USD in mid-May to 200 million USD on June 20 — tripled in one month. During the World Cup, international platform trading volume hit a record high. Industry total trading volume: 51 billion USD for all of 2025, and 60 billion USD in just the first few months of 2026. Bernstein forecasts 240 billion USD for the full year, a 370% year-over-year increase. Impressive, right? But behind these impressive numbers lie three landmines. First landmine: No matter how fast you run, someone ahead is faster. Kalshi's valuation was already 22 billion USD in May. Even more painful — last month Kalshi's trading volume was three times that of Polymarket. You are at 20 billion, they are at 22 billion. You do 200 million a day, they do 600 million a day. You are second in the race, but valuation is only 10% behind. Capital markets never give generous premiums to the "number two." Second landmine: The regulatory sword hangs overhead. On June 27, CNBC revealed: CFTC is conducting a "continuous and extensive investigation" into Polymarket. What is involved? Misleading marketing — making content creators appear to have made money when they actually invested nothing. Senators Schiff and Curtis have jointly pressured the CFTC. This is not the first time. Polymarket was banned in 2022. After struggling to recover, now it’s being pulled back for review. A platform repeatedly scrutinized by regulators, valued at 20 billion? Are you sure this isn’t dancing on a razor’s edge? Third landmine: Giants have entered the field. Robinhood launched a prediction market earlier this year, already generating 350 million USD in annualized revenue. Coinbase has also launched, available to all users. DraftKings acquired Railbird. Bernstein analysts said: Kalshi and Polymarket could both become acquisition targets. Translation: You two run fast, but Robinhood and Coinbase have tens of millions of users. You have technology, they have traffic. Traffic is more valuable than technology. So here’s the question — Can prediction markets become a new growth point for the crypto industry? My judgment: Yes. But not necessarily for Polymarket. The industry is exploding — Bernstein forecasts trading volume to exceed 1 trillion USD by 2030. Sports, politics, macro hedging, corporate risk management — this is a track evolving from a "retail casino" to an "institutional tool." The pie is big enough. But who will get the biggest slice? Is it Polymarket, valued at 20 billion, repeatedly investigated by the CFTC, suppressed by Kalshi, and besieged by Robinhood and Coinbase? Or the big players holding tens of millions of users, fully compliant licenses, ready to flip the switch? $POL $COIN $BTC #Polymarket洽谈10亿美元融资，估值超200亿美元