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Don't be fooled by the negative PCE! Core inflation still exceeds 3%, and U.S. domestic demand surged 3.9% — the September rate hike warning is not lifted Yesterday, the whole internet was shouting "inflation is cooling down." The PCE price index fell 0.1% month-over-month, the first monthly decline since 2020. GDP growth was only 1.5%, below the expected 2.1%. U.S. stocks rebounded, with the Nasdaq up 2.3%. Bitcoin is sideways at $64,500. Everyone breathed a sigh of relief. But please take a closer look — First layer of truth: Why is PCE negative? Because oil prices dropped. Energy prices plunged 5.9% month-over-month in June, gasoline prices fell 9.2%. Behind this is the temporary ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. But how fragile is the ceasefire? The core disputes between the U.S. and Iran remain unresolved, and oil prices can rebound at any time. Excluding food and energy, core PCE is up 3.3% year-over-year. What does 3.3% mean? It is 1.65 times the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This is already the sixth consecutive year that core PCE has exceeded the 2% target. A "negative value hammered out by falling oil prices," you call this inflation cooling? Second layer of truth: GDP is only 1.5%, but domestic demand exploded. GDP growth missed expectations, who is dragging it down? Net exports, inventories, government spending. These fluctuate greatly quarterly and have nothing to do with real demand. The real indicator reflecting how much Americans spend and how much businesses invest is — Domestic private final sales. What was this number in Q2? 3.9%. The fastest growth rate since early 2023. Consumer spending grew 3.2%, and AI-driven business investment continues to grow strongly. Federal Reserve Chair Powell's exact words: The U.S. economy's resilience is "impressive." The economy does not need rate cuts to stimulate; it can even continue raising rates to suppress demand. So here comes the question — What is the probability of a rate hike in September? CME FedWatch shows: 63.4%. Two-thirds chance of another rate hike in September. And don't forget — at the July FOMC meeting, 3 out of 12 members voted against, advocating for an immediate rate hike. This is the first time since 2016 that 3 officials voted in opposition in the same direction. The Federal Reserve is already anxious. What does this mean for the crypto circle? Bitcoin is now sideways at $64,500. What is the market betting on? Betting that "negative PCE = inflation is completely cooled = Fed will cut rates soon." But this logic is fragile. July PCE data will be released on August 26 — if oil prices rebound and core inflation rises again, the probability of a September rate hike will instantly jump. 63.4% is not the end, it is the starting point. My judgment is simple: Don't chase longs at this level. Wait for the July data to land. The real right-side opportunity is when the Fed clearly says the word "stop" — Not when the market is guessing. With a 63% rate hike probability hanging overhead, how far can BTC's rebound go? $BTC $BZ $CL #PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5%