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趋势研究员| Advisor @ambergroup_io｜产业洞察 | Crypto・AI・具身智能・美股代币化・预测市场等｜Previously：@peckshield | DMs for Collab

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最近和几个玩链上资深的朋友深度交流后，对当前周期的生存法则达成高度共识。市场已经从“听故事、炒预期”彻底转向“看现金流、验证落地”。以下分享若干炒币心法（仅供参考）： 1）优先考虑具备真实价值捕获能力的标的。牛市里市场愿意为故事和预期买单，熊市只认真实现金流和回购销毁记录。本周期真正的“免死金牌”，是协议能持续产生费用，并把这些费用通过回购、销毁或分红等形式直接反馈给代币持有者。比如，最近涨的不错的发射台概念币， $UNI 、 $PUMP、 $PONS 等，以及本周期的回购王 $HYPE； 2）只选PMF已落地且形成完整闭环的项目。因为下个周期不出意外只有“资产代币化”和“Agentic Economy”关联的两大叙事（Perps、预测、稳定币、Payment），市场会从偏好技术叙事延展路线转变为实用性落地验证路线，比如，没有真实用户、真实交易闭环、真实收入的项目，都会被快速过滤；顺着这个思路的概念币有： $ONDO、 $VVV、 $VIRTUAL 等，会重点看实际AUM交易量，以及费用产生能力等数据指标； 3）选择有强“共识”的资产。不得不承认，加密行业几轮周期下来唯一能经得起考验的只有俩字：“共识”。请注意，这里的共识是市场自然发酵且有跨周期能力的共识，千万不要以为xxx回复了一个推文，xxx工业化流水线炒作出来的所谓“共识”。真正有潜力的是那种新人完全看不懂，却始终流动性不错、且还活得不错的老资产。比如，老的Cult MEME代币， $DOGE、 $PEPE、 $PEOPLE 等，或者各大细分赛道的龙头资产， $ZEC、 $TAO 等，他们历经多轮牛熊，社区自发生命力强，容易被主力资金盯上反复换手操盘； 4）尽量不要碰纯VC币。如果我说山寨币已死，你可能还会用金融有周期反复来反驳一下，但如果说VC币已死，基本上没人有异议了。因为高FDV、低流通、持续大额解锁的VC币，注定只能靠TGE前后的空投预期拉热度，项目若无价值捕获能力的话，必然存在后续发展动能不足，解锁即砸盘的尴尬处境。这是本周期“牛不疯，熊的深”的根本原因，大量嗷嗷待哺的VC等着解锁砸盘，试问散户咋敢碰这种代币？ Note：以上仅为个人与朋友交流总结，且提到的代币仅为示例，不构成投资建议。

来聊一聊被吵翻天的以太坊最新提案EIP-8363: 1) 这个提案的出发点固然是好的，可以在未来某个临界点，具体在全网质押率超过50%后，共识层的发行奖励会被彻底“烧光”，仅靠执行层的真实收入MEV、小费等奖励来激励质押者。这样做对以太坊Holder一定是功载千秋的，毕竟降低了ETH的持续增发，也能变相倒逼市场做大经济活力去造血，而非纯依赖吸血Holder共同利益来维持网络安全预算； 2）提案短期内遭到抵制是必然，因为它触犯了既得利益者的利益，甚至会扰乱当前DeFi市场的平衡。比方说Lido、etherFi等LST协议的收益能力会被影响，因为它们现在给Staking Holder的奖励大部分靠的是共识层发行奖励大约2.6%，而MEV等费用只占0.2%，这个提案等于阉割了它们未来的生息能力；像AAVE等老DeFi的借贷以及循环贷有一大部分利息也是靠这部分发行奖励，一旦被阉割，影响是类似的。像 @fundstrat 等为代表的机构财库更是如此，一旦剥夺掉这部分原生质押收益，让他们零生息靠信仰持币简直痴人说梦； 3）但客观说这些短期抵制声音可以视为“噪音”，原因上述说了，他们愤怒更多是担心自己的业务做不下去了，但忽略了这份提案只是在公开讨论，一来质押率50%还没达成，提案的存在可以避免市场单纯的靠质押收益来吸血（阻挡50%质押率的达成），二来提案的落地也会有长达18个月的过渡期，并不会一夜之间阉割掉收益，给足了市场来自主调整。而且，通过提案把ETH无限增发补贴的开关关上，逼着以太坊走向靠真实经济活动给养自己的路径，何乐而不为。大凡这些人思考一下提案的初衷，也不会一边倒地反对了。 4）回归到提案的提出契机上，也不得不说作者阵容尤其是包括 @drakefjustin 在内的研究人员“象牙塔”味道浓了一些，因为他们写了很多质押reward的短期伤害，却忽略了用长期收益怎么落地给生态参与者画饼提振信心。往宽泛了说，降低通胀是所有ETH Holder的共同利益，也包括那些抵制提案的人，但不说明未来靠执行层收入如何激励网络的事，恐怕很难让生态贡献者不恐慌。 @VitalikButerin 5） @Solana_zh 其实也有类似的提案，比如SIMD-0550/0228，直接降低通胀率，减少Staking收益，但Solana的通胀基数起点高，做一些参数化的设计再加上执行落地曲线，市场接受程度会高一些。以太坊这次提案的初衷甚至未来这样做的必要性肯定有，毕竟没有任何一个网络要靠持续的高发行补贴来维系，但就看怎么平衡短期和长期利益了，无论怎么说，绝不只是发个提案那么简单的事儿。

I guess I should say something about the token Look. I worked my ass off to the point I got a frozen shoulder and severe health issues from overworking and typing, and it was never enough We built cool shit but it was completely ignored because number down It felt like the things I cared about were completely unappreciated by all but a small group who were drowned out by endless complaining, endlessly calling me a scammer and hating on everything Burwick sued us and we settled with a group of holders for the rest of the treasury and all the money we had. Their claim was ridiculous, but we didn’t have the capital to legally fight it so we settled on giving them the rest of what we had. I never sold my ai16z, never made money other than a modest salary, making as much as our other engineers from essentially a day job. Through all I said we’d keep building Eliza. I’m living on savings, building Eliza. We made some versions of Eliza like Milady, people tokenized, we got some fees, those went back into Eliza. Along the way we tried to make money and make things people told us they wanted. Those things were incredibly hard to build, with developers quitting to launch tokens, getting addicted to drugs, getting in fights with each other, building their own projects on our payroll and then leaving to make their own startup, I mean I’ve seen it all. I wanted collaborators with high agency, I didn’t want to be a manager, and I leaned a lot of lessons the hard way in human alignment. My mission has always been the same, unwavering, toward a personal and social agent who could help us do all the things we didn’t want to do, to put the A in DAOs, to enable the internet itself to generate value through open source coordination. The most expensive thing I own is my MacBook. I don’t own a car, I live in a small bedroom in SF with my wife, I write code and work almost all day every day. I don’t desire luxuries or wealth, and if I had more money I’d put it all back into Eliza and funding other developers. Not to virtue signal, but to give you some perspective— if I am a scammer then I am the dumbest and worst scammer ever, because I had $25m in my wallet and I coulda dumped on all of you and I ran it to to 0. And now as I post cool free things that I made just to make, just show off with no benefit to myself except some social likes, it’s just hate, pressure, cynicism and complaining dominating the comments. A bunch of people will surely take this opportunity to point out some hypocrisy or some small grievance, but it all boils down to a culture of people who don’t take responsibility for their gambling habits. You cannot appease the mob. So I won’t. The token is dead. Completely. The foundation is winding down. I am starting over, since I own the IP, and I am never letting a token come close to Eliza again maybe I’ll farm some fees from a 24 hour shitter to feed my team because 5k is 5k but as long as the casino is a bunch of entitled cry babies I’m never going to support an Eliza token. If you have some, you should either sell or get a cabal to crime it up, but there’s no foundation and no supply coming to save you, there’s no money for buybacks, it’s completely ngmi. A bunch of cry babies killed whatever hope there was left by giving Burwick their name to rape yet another project. The smart traders sold on the heads of the losers and exited long ago, rotating into Trump and such, just leaving the scooters of the world who’s entire business is to complain on the internet about how it’s everyone’s fault but theirs that they lost money. So yeah it’s done. I don’t own any tokens. I don’t support any of it. I love the technology and I’ll come back one day when the culture has grown past this point. But right now there is nothing in it for me busy wasted time, pressure to do dumb shit, people trying to scam me or get me to help scam others, etc. it’s trash. Absolute trash. I suggest you buy a token with real fundamentals, like Ansem’s coin. I’m sure he’ll give you the 10x I couldn’t. We’re still building Eliza and the underlying OS, faster and better than ever, unburdened by all the bullshit and sidequests and pressure to launch launchpad #83837. If that’s not enough for you… I don’t owe you anything. Feel free to complain so I can block you. We’re still gonna be here in 10 years, pushing at the edge of what agents can do and going where the big corps won’t go. We’ll make sure that local, private, crypto-enabled agents are available for everyone, and if Eliza gets outrun by another open source OS project we’ll probably merge into them and help them. But right now we’re out in front. Blockchain is a beautiful technology and I hope the industry can move away from the casino and obvious coordination failures and build real stuff instead of larping harder into chasing someone else’s prediction market market and memecoin success. But I just see more of that, even from the institutional companies, so I’m bearish. AI has none of these problems. People are optimistic, empowered, building the future instead of cutting everyone down. Those are my people. And the audience for what we’re building isn’t on here. The people who need this tech the most have no idea what a token is, either kind of token. So yeah. Gonna keep building no matter what, every single day, and I’m not gonna stop until we live in a world where we each own our own data and we don’t have to pay to be smart. That’s the mission. Eliza is dead. Long live Eliza.

发现最近推特上弥漫着焦虑的情绪，问题大家一吐槽一个准，什么山寨币批量归零，头部交易所无作为，AI和美股把人才和资本吸的干干净净，但造成这种原因的深层次原因是什么？我来谈三点看法： 1）这一周期技术概念严重臃肿，infra和应用层存在结构化失衡。太多开发者和项目方搞新链、做layer2、跨链桥，还有做DA、做ZK、做并行EVM，技术栈被堆的越来越高，融资估值也越来越离谱，但到了真正的应用端，几乎是一片空白。回想上个加密周期，还有DeFi、NFT、GameFI等infra层、社区层、应用层的板块交替轮动，而这一周期清一色的做链、做更快的链、真正能拉来增量的社区和应用几乎消失，或者说MEME可能短暂承载了这类效用，但MEME天然存在的无基本面，投机性和高度收割属性，决定了它无法填补应用层的空白，反倒会造成短暂情绪性波动和长期流动性被抽干； 2）既得利益者的短视，搞崩了行业内在价值传导机制。与其说头部交易所没有责任和担当，倒不如认清交易所的“券商”属性。按理说，面对优质项目的缺失和上币即倾销的困境，交易所应该选择挖掘、筛选并引导真正有价值的项目，但恰恰相反，他们选择了拥抱暗黑发币集团，把MEME的闸门彻底放开了。于是大量毫无基本面、纯靠情绪和收割设计的meme被批量送上台，无底线地抽干市场流动性。原本靠链上到小中大交易所一层层价值和流动性传导的筛选机制就荡然无存了。短期看，交易所确实获得了交易量和手续费，也有了短期Fomo社区的支持，但长期看却造成价值项目被排挤到了边缘，而最终造成了无币可上，靠美股续命的份上，老早就说了，这其实是话语权和定价权的让位，对于原生加密行业而言其实是一种自我阉割。 3）Crypto社区的凝结力不再，行业创新生命力面临枯竭。回想上个周期最让人着迷的地方是链上始终活跃的创造力和板块轮动，资金从技术infra侧到应用，再到重社区运维的游戏、社交板块等等。撸毛、做开源贡献、挖掘小众赛道，DeGen交易等等，总之在某个领域的深耕总能在某一天获得意想不到的回报。反观这一周期呢，技术叙事高度同质化内卷，一级市场VC找不到退出路径，不再投资，大量的开发者和社区在链上投入得不到积极回馈。长此以往，曾经赖以为傲的Crypto链上创新实验和活力就找不到滋养，最终大量的优秀开发者只能顺势被AI领域一点点抽走。虽说，大家都抱怨是AI削弱了加密的吸引力，但真正原因是加密行业的内部创新力枯竭导致。

都盯着长鑫科技上市第一天创下3.3万亿市值的神话，但深扒一下，资金狂热背后的几层逻辑更值得讨论下： 1）长鑫科技真正被资本市场定价的并非单纯的“国产替代故事”。本质上是它打破了三星、SK海力士、美光长达数十年近乎垄断的格局，形成了全球DRAM市场的第四极。此前三巨头合计市占长期超过90%，定价权高度集中，周期涨跌几乎由它们产能节奏与库存策略主导。而长鑫科技从零起步到到2026年一季度全球份额已升至约7.7%–8%，且三巨头把最先进产能大规模转向高毛利HBM后，通用DRAM（手机、电脑、普通服务器）供给被系统性挤压，长鑫恰好填补了这一结构性缺口。叠加中国市场已经具备改变供需和价格弹性的能力，长鑫第四极的出现可以压缩三巨头的联合控价空间，这才是资本市场真正给长鑫科技定价的底层逻辑； 2）都在传合肥国资十年投资产业回报胜过十年卖地的佳话，但意义更大的是，合肥国资的成功投资样本可能会改写A股半导体的资本估值和入场吸引力。此前科创板存储板块长期“有设计、无制造龙头”，机构（养老金、指数基金、外资）缺少可按全球框架配置的大市值锚点。长鑫的样本效应在于向市场证明了，A股硬科技板块并非只有高波动小市值的故事，也可能孕育出长鑫这样与全球同业对标的制造龙头。这无疑降低了后续大项目的融资难度，让以散户与题材驱动为主的A股科创板更加向机构化和业绩驱动倾斜，多少让后续A股科创板块的投资机会滋生不少，吸引更多长线资金持续入场； 3）当然，也有人担心长鑫科技短期夸张的估值会不会像历史上的中石油、中芯一样，造成持续的吸血冲击。毕竟 @SpaceX 给整个美股AI科技板块造成的冲击余威还让人胆寒。但是，长鑫首日流通盘仅约6.7%（约45亿股），超九成锁定，叠加前五日无涨跌幅限制，极小的可交易筹码被巨量资金追逐，天然形成高溢价“稀缺资产”定价。作为此前享受长鑫溢价的兆易创新今天暴跌，就说明了，市场预期开始从“概念”转向“真实制造龙头”。这短期对场内更偏概念的老标的一定会形成吸血，但长期看资金从故事转向有真实产能的制造龙头并非坏事，没准在新的结构性再定价趋势下，会有一批有真实产能和供应链需求的价值标的会被重新发掘。