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🚨 55%+ ODDS OF AN OCTOBER FED HIKE — BUT DON’T MISTAKE PROBABILITY FOR DESTINY. I’m watching the mid-term picture, and the market is clearly shifting. The narrative is moving from “September hike, then pause” to “what if tightening continues into October?” Three things matter most from here: 🛢️ Oil prices — does Brent keep climbing? 🔥 Core CPI — does inflation stay sticky? 👷 Jobs — does the labor market remain surprisingly strong #DailyOrbit