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Tuesday’s CLARITY Act procedural vote is widely expected to fail. An unexpected pass would be a major bullish surprise, as bearish risks are already priced in. The real test is 2AM Thursday’s FOMC decision, with nearly 90% odds of a 25bp hike. Geopolitics and energy keep inflation sticky; a single hike is no shock. The critical factor is the dot‑plot. If it signals another December hike, it will reprice higher‑for‑longer rates and hit $BTC hard.