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#SeptHikeOddsHit90% September hike odds reaching nearly 90% feels like a major shift in the conversation—but the inflation data still aren’t completely one-sided 👀 August PPI rose 5.4% YoY, above expectations. CPI increased 0.4% MoM, with core CPI up 0.3%. Yet the annual core rate eased to 2.4%, showing that shorter-term pressure and the broader trend are sending slightly different messages. What caught my attention is how calmly risk assets reacted. US equities and BTC remained relatively resilient even as markets moved sharply toward a 25bp hike 📊 That suggests the immediate decision may already be largely absorbed. The harder question is what comes afterward. TD Securities has raised the possibility of a new tightening cycle, which would be very different from a single precautionary move. To me, that distinction matters more than the September vote itself. The debate has shifted from “Will they hike?” to “Would one hike be enough?” September 16 may answer only the first part.