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#LastNFPBeforeFOMC Friday’s August payroll report is the final major data release before the September 16 FOMC meeting. ADP private employment increased by only 38,000, below the 47,000 consensus and the weakest reading since January. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book also reported modest growth in ten of twelve districts alongside slower hiring. Nevertheless, markets still assign approximately a 62% probability to a 25-basis-point September rate hike because underlying inflation remains elevated. The payroll headline will matter, but wage growth, unemployment and revisions could be even more influential. Weak hiring combined with firm wages would leave the Fed facing both growth and inflation risks. My view is that a clearly soft report could reduce hike expectations, weaken the dollar and support gold, Bitcoin and equities. A stronger result could lift yields and pressure risk assets. Traders should avoid judging the release from one figure because conflicting details often produce an initial move followed by a sharp reversal.