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CL_OKX
This week’s labor data feels more important than usual.
Warsh came out of Jackson Hole sounding pretty confident that the U.S. labor market is still healthy, even with slower job creation. Unemployment remains around 4.1%, and his view is that lower monthly payroll growth doesn’t automatically mean the economy is weakening.
Personally, this is exactly why I’m interested in the next jobs report.
If payrolls recover while unemployment stays stable, it strengthens Warsh’s argument that the Fed can keep its attention on inflation. But if hiring disappoints again and unemployment starts moving higher, the conversation could change pretty quickly.
The market is currently debating whether September could bring another rate hike, so one weak jobs report probably won’t decide everything but it could make that decision much more complicated.
For me, I’m watching unemployment and wage growth more closely than the headline payroll number. Those two may tell us more about whether the labor market is genuinely cracking or simply cooling.
Warsh says the labor market is still strong. Now the data gets a chance to prove him right or wrong.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh $BTC
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