Post

PCE print came out, short positions got wiped out. Microsoft earnings hit the wires, and market direction flipped entirely. This trade caught me off guard. My $SKHYNIX short was down -60.08%, taken out by a sharp spike. I entered around the 900 zone during consolidation. After sleeping through the session, price ripped straight to 1023 and stopped me out cleanly. It quickly sank in: the PCE release plus Microsoft commentary had completely reset the market’s core narrative. 🔍 What did the PCE data actually signal? June PCE fell -0.1% month-on-month, the first negative reading since 2020. Core PCE rose only 0.1% MoM, below the 0.2% consensus forecast. Inflation cooled visibly. Meanwhile Q2 GDP printed at 1.5%, well under the 2.1% expectation. The data mix is nuanced: inflation is easing, economic growth is slowing, yet consumer spending remains resilient with Q2 consumption growth hitting 3.2%. The market’s immediate takeaway: this is a risk-on catalyst. That spike on $SKHYNIX unfolded right under this shifting sentiment. 💻 The bigger wildcard: Microsoft’s capex cut triggered a violent reaction. The real market mover was Microsoft earnings. The company revised its FY2027 capital expenditure guidance down from $190B to $175B. Its stock surged more than 8% after hours. Why the euphoria? For months, investors feared AI capital burn would overwhelm big tech balance sheets. This signal carries layered meaning: The AI thesis remains intact, but the “spend at all costs for growth” logic is weakening. Markets are starting to reward disciplined cost control and returns over unrestrained capex expansion. For memory chips, this is a mixed signal. Near-term bullish: AI capex persists, just at a slower pace; demand is not collapsing outright. Long-term bearish risk: if other tech giants follow Microsoft’s lead and slash spending, memory demand expectations will face repric 🎯 Outlook on $SKHYNIX ahead Near-term bias leans upward. Cooler PCE, Microsoft’s positive surprise, plus oversold technical conditions support the bounce. 1023 may not mark the immediate top