🗒️ 📺 Notes from my segment on @AsharqBusiness with Mohamed Al Salti
1️⃣ What happened so far in Q4 2025 on Crypto markets?: The Great Leverage Reset
-Structural flows remained solid. Market flushed leverage, not holders
-BTC open interest crashed from $65B → $35B – DeFi Perp OI held firmer than CEX averages
-Institutions didn't panic-sell; this was purely a derivatives flush.
2️⃣ The "Utility Phase" Shift
-We are moving from price speculation to economic integration.
-The "4-Year Cycle" is broken; retail is quiet/distracted by memes, while ETH positions for RWA/Tokenization.
-Crypto is becoming central to the real economy (e.g., potential tokenized gold), not just a wealth creation story.
3️⃣ The Macro Spring
-Business indicators suggest a V-shaped recovery is imminent.
-ISM Manufacturing index below 50 for 36 months—historical signal for a massive rebound and liquidity injection in 2026.
-ETH leads stablecoins, tokenization, DeFi onboarding
-Prediction: ETH bottoming now for a run to $5k-$6k by Q1 2026.
-Traditional equity markets are joining the blockchain revolution and getting tokenized.
4️⃣Gold outperformed Bitcoin in 2025 (+55% vs flat); looking ahead to 2026 divergence.
-“First-Line Refuge" Dynamic (Why Gold Won 2025)
In acute panic, capital flows to history before it flows to technology.
-Central Bank Bid: Central banks bought >1,000 tonnes of gold in 2025 (record pace), providing a price floor that Bitcoin lacked.
-The "Crisis Playbook": During 2025’s geopolitical shocks (tariffs/conflicts), Gold acted as the immediate safe haven; Bitcoin behaved like a risk asset (tech stock), selling off initially before stabilizing.
5️⃣2026 is when the liquidity tap turns back on for digital assets.
-The Liquidity Lag: Gold rallies anticipating rate cuts (2025); Bitcoin rallies after liquidity actually hits the system (2026).
-2026 Forecast: As Fed rate cuts materialize and real yields drop, Bitcoin is projected to act as "Gold with leverage," potentially outperforming on a percentage basis as risk appetite returns.
#️⃣ We also, off camera touch on Arabian Crypto - UAE, the Book
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