Orange Evening Analysis 5.20 GENIUS Stablecoin Act advances further in the Senate! Crypto market is boiling, #RWA #Stablecoin sectors are taking off, with a potential capital exposure of up to $2 trillion. Dollar hegemony + new play for U.S. Treasury bonds—could this signal an altcoin bull run? The biggest news last night was that the GENIUS Stablecoin Act passed the Senate's second procedural motion vote. While this doesn’t mean the bill is passed, it’s a significant step forward compared to the bearish news on May 8, when the procedural vote failed due to the Democratic Party withdrawing support (concerns over anti-money laundering and Trump-related conflicts of interest). Essentially, this marks a restart for the bill. The next steps include Senate debates and amendments, a final Senate vote, House review, bicameral coordination, and presidential signing. Although the road to final legislation is still long—earliest completion expected by August—the impact of this stablecoin bill on crypto is immense. Even crypto czar David Sacks tweeted that this procedural approval is a major victory for the cryptocurrency sector. Coinbase CEO also stated that if the bill passes, it would be a huge win for on-chain innovation. White House digital asset advisor Bo Hines believes the GENIUS Act will solidify the dollar’s dominance and position U.S. asset innovation as a global leader. Many people might still be unclear about the specific benefits this bill brings to crypto. Firstly, it opens up massive capital exposure. The stablecoins we currently use, like USDC and USDT, are still considered niche assets by Wall Street, with compliance and regulation being the main barriers to large-scale institutional entry. If the stablecoin bill passes, institutions will have no more concerns. Elizabeth Warren even estimated that this bill could expand the stablecoin market size from $200 billion to $2 trillion, which is close to Canada’s GDP. Imagine this scale of capital entering the crypto market—wouldn’t everything skyrocket? Altcoin bull runs wouldn’t be a concern anymore. Secondly, the global status of the dollar would be safeguarded. On-chain stablecoins and investments would become new reservoirs for U.S. Treasury bonds. Whether the new stablecoin is USD1 or USD2, the underlying asset will ultimately be U.S. Treasury bonds. Trump’s push for this stablecoin bill, even personally promoting it, is essentially aimed at weakening the dollar while ensuring its global influence. This requires enhancing the utility of U.S. Treasury bonds. Currently, Tether’s holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds are already among the top globally, surpassing Germany’s reserves as of last night’s news. If dozens or hundreds more Tethers are created in the future, U.S. Treasury bonds might not even be sufficient. This way, the U.S. debt crisis could be controlled. Trump’s earlier statement about relying on crypto to solve the U.S. debt problem might ultimately hinge on the stablecoin plan. With the current $37 trillion U.S. Treasury bond market, the capital influx into on-chain and crypto markets would be even larger. Therefore, if this bill passes, it would undoubtedly be a super bullish event, surpassing Bitcoin spot ETFs or even national strategic reserve-level benefits. Because of this bill, today’s #RWA #Stablecoin sectors have surged. Let’s start with RWA. Since stablecoins are pegged to U.S. Treasury bonds or dollar-equivalent assets, they essentially qualify as real-world assets (RWA). Moreover, if the dollar can go on-chain, other physical and financial assets can also go on-chain. The method for on-chain integration would likely rely on existing infrastructure. Thus, #RWA is bound to be a super sector for a long time. Today, almost all RWA-related projects have surged, especially the new RWA stars on-chain like $collat, $kta, $token, $mpl, etc., with gains exceeding 30%. Leading projects like $ondo, $link, $mkr, $syrup, $om also showed strong performance, with single-day gains exceeding 5%. Next is stablecoin protocols. Although there’s been much discussion today suggesting that the stablecoin bill is actually bearish for existing decentralized stablecoin protocols—since the future market will likely only recognize stablecoins collateralized by the dollar—the current stablecoin protocols were designed to counter centralized fiat currencies. They’ve implemented various mechanisms to optimize fiat currencies. However, Luna’s collapse has shown the limitations of pure algorithmic stablecoins. Over-collateralized or semi-algorithmic models either suffer from low capital efficiency or are prone to de-pegging, making it difficult to sustain large-scale operations. Theoretically, if hundreds more USDTs are created, decentralized stablecoins might struggle to find a foothold. Nonetheless, there’s still short-term speculative potential. Last night, $aave, $fxs, $ena, $pendle, $crv all saw gains of 10-20%, indicating that centralized exchanges (CEXs) currently have no other options but to play this concept. As for on-chain meme coins, there wasn’t much action last night. I mentioned in a previous article that the “believe” strategy has diverted too much in-market capital to traditional Web2, causing a drop in retail investor confidence and sentiment. This marks a short-term peak. The next trend might return to mainstream narratives like RWA, AI, DeFi, PayFi, and L1. However, a true altcoin bull run will only happen after Bitcoin officially reaches ATH. This round of altcoin bull runs might occur after Bitcoin hits $120k, so everyone should patiently wait.