Can you play when VCs get involved? The VC background, most of the time, is just another reason for people to FOMO. Those with a broader perspective will pump it up before dumping, while those without will not spend a penny and dump as soon as someone gets on board. Previously, there was an MVB project where the team launched it, dumped it, and even denied it was their own project. Many projects have VCs involved from the start. In this round, I haven’t seen any VCs with a broad perspective. In the last round on BSC and Sui, the VCs were quite strategic, and at least most people made money. Waiting for this wave of slightly more strategic VCs to make a move again. Can you follow the lead of influencers? Most of the time, you can’t chase right after so-called influencers enter. Their alt accounts are already fully loaded, and a bunch of followers will pile in afterward, leaving you to get dumped on. Similarly, when influencers call out a project, you can’t chase immediately because their friends, brothers, and close associates have already positioned themselves, waiting for you to take the bag. What I’m saying is, don’t chase at that very moment. But after they’ve entered, you can evaluate the narrative, token distribution, and sentiment. Calm down and decide whether to follow. Can you play when everyone is hyping it? Here, you need to assess the potential upside. When everyone is hyping it and you think the narrative is solid, check the current market cap. If it’s significantly higher than the current market leader’s cap, there’s not much reason to chase. After all, betting small to win big relies on potential upside. Can you enter when top addresses are selling? Many times, the dev’s known alt accounts are constantly selling. I’ve been scared off by this a few times, but they play a lot of games. Sometimes, top addresses selling is genuine, but other times, smaller addresses are buying while the top addresses sell. True selling often happens when the top addresses remain still, and many other addresses start selling. What can retail investors do? You can’t track everything. People often ask me, after analyzing and reviewing so much every day, have I made money? My current analysis and reviews are aimed at losing less money. Now, I’m losing less daily than before, which I consider decent progress. In this market, not making money doesn’t mean you’re failing. Pure retail investors rarely make money. In short, it’s all gambling.
30 SOL Challenge to 300 SOL - Summary of Insights: Currently, only 6 SOL left Right now, many secondary market players have no place to allocate their funds and are wandering around. Their buying behavior has a characteristic: compared to on-chain transactions, the amounts are relatively large, and they make single, lump-sum purchases. As a result, they often drive up the token price. Retail investors, who don't check wallet addresses, assume it's a whale entering the market, and their emotions rise, leading them to follow suit. The price goes up—does this mean a whale has arrived? Has the whale really entered? I've observed this several times. Once with $RFC and another time with $DARK. It's clear that the whales are still in the accumulation phase because the second and third largest holders of $DARK own too much and haven't split their holdings across multiple addresses. Moreover, the third-largest holder has been actively trading in and out. Therefore, the whales can't pump the price quickly at this stage. Every time the price hits 40M, it's actually group members pushing it up. These members invest tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars at the same time, causing other groups to shout about new highs and breakouts. In reality, it's just group members driving the price up, and it doesn't take long before the price is suppressed again. So, when participating in projects now, the key is to follow the whales, especially for projects with some scale and narrative, rather than purely speculative ones. However, whales are very clever these days. The actions they want you to notice are often not their true intentions. Should you participate in openly coordinated pump-and-dump schemes? For heavily coordinated pump-and-dump schemes, should you join? As I mentioned yesterday, you should. No matter what, try a small position early on to test the waters. Enter with a comfortable position size, one you can afford to lose entirely. However, be cautious about chasing high prices. If the entire network is talking about it and it's already taking off, you might want to wait. Refer to my previous strategy: I don't buy during full-network FOMO. If you miss it, there will always be another opportunity. Is listing on Moonshot the peak? From recent observations, most tokens see a price increase after listing on Moonshot. However, in many cases, this marks the peak. Even if it isn't the absolute peak, it's often a local high. After listing, prices tend to rise first and then fall. Whether they can recover later depends on the narrative, market sentiment, and the whales' actions. All these theoretical insights are subject to changes in market sentiment, environment, and capital flow. You need to develop your own trading system, continuously observe, and update your strategies. In summary, it's all a gamble.
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