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Robinhood closed at 91.43 the day after releasing its earnings report, down 3.3% from 94.56 the previous day. Since last April, this marks the seventh consecutive time the stock closed lower the day after earnings.
The opening was even worse, with a direct drop of 5.6%, opening at 89.23. It then gradually recovered, closing 2.5% higher than the opening price. The options bet on a roughly 10% move up or down, but the actual drop was only 3.3%, much smaller than the bet.
Both predictions in the outlook were correct. Earnings per share came in at 0.51, below the expected 0.555, and the stock also closed lower the next day. The 4 cents difference from my estimate of 0.55 was due to taxes; the unrealized loss on RVI didn’t offset the tax much.
Both 'No' bets won: the beat expectation averaged 18.4 cents, and the next day’s rise was 67 cents per share.Exhausted, the Federal Reserve's October meeting results are out, just as I said before: no rate hike in October, rate hike in December.
Interest rates remain unchanged at 3.75%-4%, with a 10:2 vote. Cook and Hammack voted against, requesting an additional 25 basis points hike. The Fed's statement: strong economic growth, stable unemployment rate, consumption still robust, but inflation remains high. Coupled with geopolitical uncertainties, they continue to stick to the 2% target. The overall tone is hawkish, indeed leaving room for a rate hike in December, which the market has basically priced in.
The initial crypto reaction is very muted, Bitcoin is still fluctuating above 80,000 (around 81,000), with leverage pressure unchanged. Short-term negative factors are exhausted, no need to worry too much, but the "hawkish overhang" in December plus the midterm election results are the real variables ahead. As I always say: zero leverage, slowly accumulate spot, don't get shaken out by volatility. I originally planned to stay up late to trade crypto tonight, but BTC is performing very calmly… $BTC $ETH $ZEC The oil pot has just been taken off the heat, yet the valve at the Strait of Hormuz is still being pressed down by a military boot—Brent at $109.74/barrel, WTI at $99.50/barrel, this ladle is far from a light broth. Iran's Supreme Leader has set conditions for a ceasefire, and warnings are coming from the Gulf direction; the kitchen is like it’s simultaneously on fire and ventilating: on one side skimming off diplomatic foam, on the other side guarding against military chili oil splashing the pot. This price level is not cheap fare; the broth still has oil floating on top. The market treats the “willingness to end the war” as a salt reduction, but Trump has yet to make a final decision, so shipping and energy security at Hormuz remain uncertain; shipping fees are like the food delivery channel—if the rhythm of serving the whole table is disrupted, supply disturbances are like the stove’s gas flame—if it flickers, all pots need to be re-seasoned. Whether oil prices can continue to fall depends on whether this broth is just skimming foam or changing the soup entirely. Geopolitical news is like extra spicy chili—adding a little enhances the aroma, but too much burns the stomach.
XMETA, this tokenized US stock offering, is not a lonely dessert. On the surface, it’s a tech main course, but underneath it’s drenched in macro oil sauce: high oil prices stoke inflation expectations and interest rate heat, and growth stock valuations fear the stove temperature fluctuating wildly; shipping and energy costs act like invisible thickeners, sticking to risk appetite. A drop in oil prices gives risk assets a spicy breath of relief, but with military risks still burning, safe-haven funds act like cold water poured on a hot pot—no matter how resilient XMETA is, it depends on the heat. On the menu, this dish’s top notes are a tech story, the mid-notes are the advertising cycle, and the base notes are interest rates and energy costs; a change in the oil price’s spiciness can suppress even the most fragrant top notes. The portfolio mix has always been: mainstream coins as the main course, altcoins as seasoning, and leveraged contracts as extra spicy chili—when the oil price ladle pours chili oil, no matter how fragrant the seasoning, it can’t cover up the stomach’s turmoil. XMETA’s linkage isn’t about watching a single headline dish, but whether the three pots of Hormuz valve, shipping fees, and inflation expectations are all stable simultaneously. Diplomatic hope is the foam skimmed off, military risk is the hidden fire; skimming off foam doesn’t mean the broth isn’t boiling. This pot of soup is still one fire short of clarity, and XMETA’s dish can only follow the stove’s temperament. #oilfallsamidiranrisks☀️ 大叔早报｜10.29（周四） 🌍 一句话总结 微软 Azure 增长48%，盘后一度涨超5%；谷歌云增长103%，Alphabet 却因利润大幅不及预期而下跌。同样押注AI，市场开始区别对待：增长很重要，增长能否兑现成利润更重要。 美联储维持利率在3.75%—4.00%，但两票反对、主张本次加息。A股昨天放量反弹，今天要验证的不是能不能高开，而是能不能续涨。 🪙 Crypto｜81K附近震荡，等待方向 BTC约81,290美元，ETH约2,360美元（盘前参考价）。 大叔观察： 美联储决议落地，不代表宏观风险解除。关注82K附近能否站稳，别把反弹直接当反转。 🇺🇸 美股隔夜｜AI开始接受利润审判 道指+0.19%，标普+0.28%，纳指+0.27%。 微软： Azure增长48%，下一季度增速指引继续加快，盘后一度涨超5%。 Alphabet： 营收增长25%，Google Cloud增长103%，但每股收益2.12美元，远低于市场预期，股价盘后下跌。 大叔观察： 谷歌云增长103%，股价仍然下跌——市场不是不相信AI，而是开始追问投入何时转化成利润和现金流。微软得到奖励Google has released its earnings report, and the drop is unbearable to watch.
Earnings per share were 2.12, while Wall Street estimated 3.02. The miss was expected, but the surprise was how sharply the stock price fell.
On Wednesday, Google closed at 324.89, and after hours it dropped to a low of 287.57. By 8 PM Eastern Time, it was at 292.47, down 10%, breaking through the 6% drop that options had bet on.
In my outlook, I listed several numbers that could prove me wrong. Cloud revenue was 30.7 billion, surpassing the 30.5 billion threshold, and capital expenditures for 2026 did not increase further. Only the backlog was 561 billion, not reaching 650 billion. Most of the good numbers were there, yet the stock price still fell. Revenue was roughly as expected; the news cited the reasons as earnings per share missing estimates and spending being too high. The CFO also said capital expenditures will significantly increase in 2027.
What surprised me most was the orders on OKX perpetual contracts. I thought longs would close positions after the drop, but the long-to-short ratio rose from 6.3 last night to as high as 8.5 before 8 AM. Positions increased from 58,000 shares to 108,000 shares, nearly doubling—buying more as the price fell.
The No chosen for exceeding expectations won. The No chosen for the next day’s rise will have to wait until tonight’s US market close.
Alright, these are all my personal views and actual positions, not investment advice. First, to pour some cold water, when I see this kind of judgment "price will rise once uncertainty fades," I tend to look for which link is missing inside. My view is cautious: price resilience means toughness, but directly translating it into upward momentum might be overreading the market.
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that ETF net inflows have been close to zero year-to-date this year, yet Bitcoin has only dropped 7%. Based on this, he speculates that the possibility of large-scale selling by veteran whales or miners is low, and expects bullish momentum to return after midterm election uncertainty fades and ETF inflows resume. I think there are two key points here: net inflow close to zero is just a net figure and cannot alone confirm that selling pressure has cleared; fading election uncertainty does not necessarily mean ETF funds will definitely flow back. The former is a supply judgment, the latter a demand assumption—missing either link cannot support a complete bullish logic.
Of course, he might be right. The ability to hold up under weak demand itself should not be underestimated. If ETF net inflows continue afterward and $BTC price strengthens accordingly, rather than funds coming in without price rising, I will adjust my bearish view. For now, I want to focus on whether funds and price can mutually validate each other, and not rush to price in a condition that has yet to be realized. October 29 Crypto Market Analysis
BTC around $81,245, ETH around $2,360. The Fed's "hawkish pause" was implemented; the decision itself did not trigger a sell-off, but the internal 10:2 vote included two dissenting votes advocating for a rate hike, pushing the December rate hike expectations above 85%.
BTC: Neutral to cautious. ETF holders' average cost is about $81,500, and the current price is battling near this level. Continued closing below it may trigger redemption pressure. The resistance above $87,000 has twice suppressed rebounds this year and caused at least a 25% pullback. Short-term support at $81,000 maintains consolidation, with a lower probability of a sharp drop compared to a gradual decline.
ETH: Weak. It has broken below the daily ascending channel lower boundary since June (around $2,400). The futures active buy/sell ratio of 0.973 is the lowest since the June sell-off. October ETF outflows total about $1.26–1.32 billion, approaching a monthly record and about six times the BTC outflow scale. The $2,310–2,328 range is a dense area of on-chain cost, 200-day EMA, and large holder cost; losing this level sets the next target at $2,256.
Core changes: The decision was moderately implemented but with a tough tone, which suppresses BTC's rebound height rather than causing a sharp drop; ETH's technical breakdown combined with continuous ETF outflows results in higher short-term risk than BTC. $BTC $ETH Microsoft has reported earnings, and a big bullish candlestick has appeared. Azure rose 48%, which is one point higher than the 47% line in the buyers' minds. In the earnings call, the CFO gave next quarter's Azure guidance at a constant currency growth of 49% to 50%, even faster than this quarter.
In my preview, I wrote that if Azure reaches above 48% and the next quarter's guidance is also raised, and the stock closes higher the next day, then I would be wrong. Now the first two conditions have been met. On Wednesday, Microsoft closed at 531.01, and after hours it surged to around 568, up 7%. By 8 PM Eastern Time, it was 546.50, up another 2.9%. On OKX, MSFT perpetual futures were at 547.5 by 8 AM Beijing time, roughly the same as after-hours.
Earnings per share were no surprise, reported at 4.92, adjusted 4.89, while Wall Street estimated 4.71. The "Yes" choice for beating expectations won, the "No" choice for next day rise lost; let's see what happens tomorrow.
The only chance for a turnaround is the pattern I mentioned in the preview: in the past 8 times, 7 times the stock closed lower than it opened the next day. After the US market opens tonight, we'll see if it can open high and hold.
These are all my personal views and actual positions, not investment advice. The Federal Reserve held steady overnight, keeping rates at 3.75% to 4%, with a 10-2 vote; Cook and Harker were the two votes for a rate hike, while in September it was a unanimous 12-0 vote.
The statement changed the economy description from solid expansion to strong expansion. The previous phrase about rate hikes helping inflation return to 2% faster was removed. The Wash press conference gave no forward guidance.
CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hike in December exceeding 85%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield peaked at 5.025%.
$BTC was around 80800 when the decision came out, rose to 81100 during the press conference, surged to 81768 at 4 a.m. but was pushed back, now hovering around 81130, with a funding rate of 0.01%.
Holding steady does not mean easing; the two votes for a rate hike are clear, the December rate hike threat still hangs, and yields are so high. I consider this rally a bounce from the boots dropping, not a trend.
Short-term support is between 80950 and 81000; the lower shadows on several hourly candles overnight are around here. Cut losses if it breaks below 80950.
The first resistance is at 81450; if the long upper shadow at 81770 cannot be surpassed, do not chase.
Set stop loss below 80700, target first at 81770, keep position size small as usual #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $BTC $HYPE
One of the core participants in the ecosystem, HyperLabs, applied to redeem nearly 180,000 HYPE, equivalent to 14.49 million USD. Whose holdings wouldn't shake a bit with that?
So what happened? HYPE's current price is 80.5, down 1% in 24 hours, hitting a low of 79.5 before bouncing back. With such a large redemption request on-chain, this is the market's reaction.
There are two interpretations. One is that the chip structure is indeed solid: over 1.7 million tokens traded in 24 hours, so 180,000 is about two to three hours' volume, and the buyers aren't panicking. The other is that no one really cares—you redeem yours, I trade mine.
I lean towards the former but don't intend to bet on it. I've always thought HYPE's valuation is somewhat story-driven; a real on-chain redemption knocking on the door, and the price not moving doesn't mean nothing's happening, maybe the time just hasn't come.
Wait for this real sale to complete, then see if the market shows respect.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Integrating Bitcoin into a multi-asset portfolio is essentially like adding a modular steel structure annex to an existing reinforced concrete framework—not a rebuild, but a reinforced expansion. VanEck's WBMO launched on October 27, supported by four pillars: stocks, bonds, gold, and BTC. The BTC allocation benchmark is 2%, adjustable between 1%-5%, operating through a spot ETP channel. To me, this is a "tuned damper design": it’s not expected to be the main load-bearing wall, but it can absorb shear waves when an earthquake hits.
Franklin Templeton’s FBEQ and FIBT are more straightforward, starting with about 95% US stocks and 5% BTC, then continuously increasing BTC through dividend reinvestment. Translated into construction terms: using operational cash flow to reinforce the foundation, converting the dividend drainage pipe into a prestressed anchor cable. The design logic is clear, but the construction sequence matters—pour the main structure first, then tension; reversing the order causes stress concentration.
The real highlight isn’t the allocation numbers but the shift in the structural system. Previously, BTC was an irregular building on an independent plot—striking in shape but isolated. Now, asset managers have made it a prefabricated component with standard floor height and load, embedded into the beam-column joints of traditional portfolios. A 2% allocation sounds like decorative reinforcement, but an adjustable range up to 5% means this joint design reserves capacity for seismic grade upgrades. From dividend reinvestment to multi-asset portfolios, what asset managers are doing is reclassifying BTC from a "landscape structure" to a "structural component."
This triggers a chain reaction in engineering terms: when BTC enters mainstream portfolios at single-digit percentages, its volatility characteristics are diluted by the portfolio’s inertia, but the portfolio’s drawdown path is reshaped by it. The correlation depth with the US stock token $xSPY is essentially a seismic wave transmission issue between two adjacent buildings on the same foundation slab—once resonance frequencies align, whether the seismic gap is wide enough becomes a matter of life and death.
I’ve seen too many projects fail due to construction quality—not because the blueprints were bad, but because the reinforcement ratio and concrete grade didn’t match. The adjustable BTC allocation from 1% to 5% tests not the design institute’s imagination but the asset manager’s on-site management capabilities—rebalancing frequency, tax frictions, custody chain—all hidden engineering challenges. The path of dividend reinvestment to increase BTC is compound interest on paper but continuous prestressing in engineering; overtensioning leads to brittle fracture.
The white paper is the design drawing, the ETF is the construction permit, but what determines whether this building can withstand the next cycle is the redundancy of the underlying architecture and the ductility of the joints. The 2% allocation is evolving from an experimental component to a standard practice, and the structural significance of this trend far exceeds the number itself.
A building with insufficient reinforcement ratio cannot withstand a shear wave no matter how beautiful the curtain wall is. #vaneckfranklinbtcetfsShort-term Key Variables and Observation Points
In the coming weeks, the direction of the crypto market is likely to be driven by the following events:
1. Federal Reserve FOMC Statement Wording: The October rate hike is fully priced in; the real signal lies in the strength of guidance on a December rate hike in the statement and press conference. If hawkish, the $80,000 support will be tested again; if flexibility is maintained, a brief respite may be possible.
2. Tech Giants' Earnings and AI Narrative: Capital expenditure guidance from Microsoft, Google, and Amazon will influence overall risk appetite. AI spending has a "diversion effect" on crypto funds—if tech stocks regain favor, marginal buying in the crypto market may further weaken.
3. Technical Significance of $80,000: Bitcoin has been oscillating between $80,000 and $82,500 for three weeks. A clear weekly close below $80,000 points to the next support near $76,000; reclaiming $82,500 is needed for short-term momentum improvement.
Summary: The current difficulties in the crypto market are not due to structural collapse within the industry but rather the combined effect of tightening macro liquidity expectations and shrinking risk appetite. Until inflation data shows substantial cooling or the Fed's rate path expectations shift, sustained upward momentum is unlikely. The $80,000 level is a key window to observe whether short-term sentiment slides from "neutral to slightly weak" toward "panic." $BTC $BTC
Once the midterm elections are settled, BTC can resume its upward trend — I half believe what the founder of CryptoQuant said.
The other half I leave to the market to decide. The real price is 81160, fluctuating between 80350 and 81786 in 24 hours, with a neutral 0.01% fee rate; neither bulls nor bears have secretly increased their positions. I trust the real money on the market over verbal judgments.
However, there is one set of data I am closely watching: the short-term holders' cost basis is 76,500. This group is still in profit and cannot be shaken out; only if it truly falls near that level will stop-loss selling flood in. So before this line breaks, I don't think there's any one-sided trade to make.
Also, a guy named Grant Cardone has made a million-dollar bet that BTC will reach 126,000 within two years. Betting is betting, but that's two years from now and has nothing to do with the current daily candle in front of me.
My stance: during these weeks of election hype, BTC is in this box range. Either wait for a pullback to 76,500 to see if it holds, or wait for it to break out with volume on its own. Around 81,000, I stay out and watch.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 A super low-pressure system with a central valuation approaching two trillion dollars is completing its numbering on the Nasdaq surface. The formation document submitted on October 26 was just its initial disturbance; what truly alerted the watch room was the sounding profile: precipitation in the first half of the year—i.e., revenue—was 16.3 billion, a fourteenfold year-on-year increase, yet the eyewall simultaneously carried a net loss of 80.7 billion, of which 72.4 billion was non-cash valuation adjustments, not a single drop reaching the ground. Excluding this part, the actual business loss was 693 million.
This vertical structure is called an elevated thunderstorm in meteorology: the cloud tops surge very high, radar echoes are dazzlingly bright, but the dry layer at the bottom is too thick, resulting in extremely low precipitation efficiency. The market only focuses on the bright temperature at the cloud top and assumes a heavy rainstorm is coming.
Looking at its water vapor flux commitment—the long-term computing power expenditure cap is 750 billion. This is the convergence budget for the next decade, equivalent to staking all the water vapor in the entire monsoon trough. The problem has never been how high the clouds can grow, but whether the precipitation efficiency can keep up. A fourteenfold increase is a typical feature of a strong convective outbreak period, but the outbreak period will not last forever. Once the stratification turns stable, the revenue curve will quickly flatten, while computing power expenditure is a rigid downdraft. The pressure gradient between the two will sooner or later tear open a front.
On the November 16 window, if priced between 1.5 trillion and 2 trillion, it will surpass the previous listing record of 1.77 trillion, becoming the strongest landing ever observed. But historical data repeatedly remind us: the lower the central pressure, the more frequent the eyewall replacement before landing, and the greater the path deviation. The linkage logic of tokenized US stock targets is very simple—it is not a weather forecast, it is a barometer; the wind has not arrived, but the mercury column moves first; volatility will react before valuation, and price spreads will precede volume expansion.
The watch room's current judgment: this is an explosive deepening process, with a complete warm-core structure, but the upper-level divergence conditions are still unclear, and numerical models still show huge divergence in its path. What really needs monitoring is not the 2 trillion central pressure reading, but the actual precipitation in the second half of next year—whether revenue can continue convection or will prematurely hit the inversion layer, locking all the water vapor at the cloud base.
Eyewall replacement has already begun; before the next sounding data comes out, any judgment on rain or shine is a gamble. #anthropicipofiled[The Federal Reserve Targets South Korea, AI Still a Hot Topic]
Wachtel specifically emphasized that his concern for the South Korean economy "exceeds your imagination," and there is a very direct reason behind this: South Korea is providing key components for the U.S. AI boom. Chip $SKHY exports and semiconductor equipment investments are upstream thermometers for the expansion of U.S. AI infrastructure. South Korea's Q3 GDP grew 1% quarter-on-quarter, higher than the market expectation of 0.7%, with semiconductors estimated to contribute about half of the economic growth.
No matter how attractive AI returns are, they cannot escape interest rates. Rising financing costs will affect data center construction, computing power procurement, and corporate capital expenditures; if demand for Korean chips cools, the investment chain of U.S. tech companies may also come under pressure. Wachtel has previously made it clear that AI investment is not an "immune zone" for monetary policy.
Wachtel's focus on South Korea is not a sudden interest in the Asian economy but an observation of whether AI demand can continue to transmit to the U.S. Currently, South Korean exports and equipment investments remain strong, but private consumption has already declined 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, so the economy is not fully booming. For the market, what really needs to be watched next is whether chip orders and corporate investments are slowing down; once this chain weakens, the pressure on AI concept stocks may be more tangible than one or two Federal Reserve statements.$FIL filcoin project, what is the total real income of the entire network per day now?
Conclusion first: Filecoin's entire network "real income" depends on how you define it; different metrics differ by several orders of magnitude. Below are separate calculations.
1. On-chain total fees / protocol revenue (most commonly used metric)
According to DefiLlama data on 2026-10-27:
Chain Fees (24h): $19,083
Chain Revenue (24h): $19,083
Details "actual user paid fees": about $21,815/day
Sector Alpha aggregated 30-day fees up to 2026-10-23 are $83.9K, averaging about $2,800/day, roughly the same scale as the latest value above (with recent fluctuations).
This layer of income mainly includes Gas fees, Base Fee burns, penalties, and other on-chain economic activities, not the money from storage orders themselves.
2. External customers' "real cash paid storage fees"
This is the strictly defined "real business income," and the numbers are very small:
Onchain Cloud (new paid warm storage service) from 2025-11 to 2026-08 totaled only $1,676
Annualized: about $2,000/day or less (daily average ~$5.5)
Old storage market from 2025-05 to 2026-08, out of over 17 million transactions, only 21,000 involved payments, total paid 0.0488 FIL
Filecoin Pay transactions $53,932, of which $51,140 came from the same wallet to the same address, so it cannot be counted as decentralized real demand
In other words, external customers' real storage payment averages at the "thousand-dollar level or even lower" per day.
3. Block rewards (not counted as real income but often mixed in)
The entire network mints about 56,000–60,000 FIL daily
At FIL ≈ $0.9–1.1, nominal value is $50,000–66,000/day
Essentially inflation subsidies, not income; after the Solstice upgrade, this part will gradually link to "bringing paying customers"
Summary comparison
Metric
Estimated daily income
Notes
On-chain total fees/protocol revenue
About $19,000–22,000
Gas + burns + penalties
External customer storage payments
Thousand-dollar level (<$1,000)
Real business cash flow
Block rewards (nominal)
$50,000–66,000
Inflation subsidy, not income
So the question "What is Filecoin's entire network real income per day now?":
Answer by on-chain metric: about $20,000/day
Answer by "actual money customers pay for storing data": less than $1,000/day, possibly only a few to tens of dollars on some low-activity days
This is why the market often says FIL is "narrative far greater than cash flow"—the storage infrastructure is running, but paying demand has not yet picked up.
Do you want to continue to see income trends, miner net income, or compare income with Arweave and Storj? 【Market Real-Time Quotes】$BTC $81,290 (+0.51%), $ETH $2,360 (+0.45%), $SOL $103 (+1.31%), $BNB $757 (+1.57%)【Market Real-Time Quotes】. Fear and Greed Index at 51, neutral. On the surface, this looks like a typical "bad news turning into good news" scenario. 👇 But breaking down the structure, what truly deserves attention today are three mutually contradictory signals: 🏦 Fed's Rift: Interest rates remain at 3.75%–4.00%, as expected. However, the vote changed from 12:0 last round to 10:2, with Harker and Cook dissenting. The market is unsure whether these two votes oppose tightening or loosening; consensus is starting to loosen. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in December has risen to 86%. 💥 Shorts Are Being Squeezed: In the past 24 hours, about $132 million in liquidations occurred network-wide, with short liquidations at $94.24 million, accounting for 71.31%, which is 2.5 times the long liquidations. $BTC short liquidations account for **78%**, $ETH 69%. Prices are moving up, and those shorting are being consumed in reverse. 📉 Retail Trading Engine Cooling Down: Robinhood's Q3 crypto trading revenue was $120 million, a year-over-year plunge of 55%; crypto trading volume was $50 billion, down 38% year-over-year. Meanwhile, its prediction market (event contracts) revenue reached $173 million, soaring over 6 times year-over-year, already surpassing crypto revenue. Market reaction to this earnings report isETH does not have a unified “whale standard”; thresholds vary across different platforms, and it is distinguished from BTC (≥1000 BTC) criteria: The two most commonly used classifications in the community (Santiment / Glassnode) 1. Super Whales: ≥100,000 ETH Very few addresses, ranging from several dozen to over sixty. ⚠️ The majority here are: Beacon Chain staking contracts, exchange custody wallets, ETF custody addresses; genuine individual whales are very rare. 2. Standard Whales: ≥10,000 ETH (the tier most closely watched) Approximately 800 to 1100 addresses; this tier represents the whales commonly referred to who actively trade and influence the market, including funds, large holders, and institutional self-custody wallets. 3. Large Holders/Sharks: ≥1,000 ETH This tier has many more addresses, numbering in the thousands, including many mid-sized funds, staking service providers, and DeFi treasuries. The most important misconception (same as BTC) Address ≠ real independent person - Beacon Chain deposit contracts, Lido, Coinbase staking pools, and major exchange cold wallets are all counted as whale addresses; - One whale can split assets into dozens of wallets; one wallet can hold tens of thousands of retail investors’ funds (custody). Therefore, on-chain data can only count wallet addresses and cannot accurately determine how many real independent “people” are whales. A simple comparison with the BTC you just asked about - BTC whale standard: ≥1000 BTC,CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju expressed the view that as the U.S. midterm elections gradually approach, the market continues to price in the regulatory and fiscal policy uncertainties brought by the elections. Once the elections conclude and uncertainties dissipate, Bitcoin is expected to enter a new round of upward momentum. He analyzed the current market situation, pointing out that although Bitcoin ETF inflows have nearly stalled this year, Bitcoin's price has only slightly retreated by 7%, showing price resilience beyond expectations. This phenomenon indirectly indicates that large-scale sell-offs by market whales and miners have basically ended, and market selling pressure has been fully released, laying the groundwork for subsequent market movements. Reviewing historical market trends, excluding the very early stages when the market size was minimal, Bitcoin has averaged gains of over 50% within 12 months after several past U.S. midterm elections. The conclusion of midterm elections and clearer policy expectations are often important triggers for risk assets to start rising. However, analysts also caution that elections are just one of many influencing factors. Whether Bitcoin can truly start an uptrend ultimately depends on Federal Reserve monetary policy, U.S. Treasury yield trends, and whether spot ETF inflows can resume. If the high interest rate environment persists, relying solely on election expectations will hardly support Bitcoin in sustaining a large-scale bull market. There are also divergent views within the market. Some institutional research reports suggest that even if the election results are finalized, if a divided Congress emerges, legislation related to crypto assets will still be deadlocked, and regulatory uncertainties will not completely disappear, potentially causing the market to[Microsoft Earns Cash Back Through AI, While Google Is Scared by Burn Rate and Drops]
Both are investing heavily in AI, but Microsoft $MSFT is clearly more favored by the market this time. Quarterly revenue reached $92.3 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase, with Azure growth hitting 48%, and it expects to accelerate further to 49%–50% next quarter. Commercial order backlog reached $677 billion, indicating customers are indeed continuing to pay.
What reassures investors even more is the cash flow: Microsoft’s free cash flow reached $18.6 billion, far exceeding the market expectation of about $8.5 billion; capital expenditures were $45.2 billion, also below the previous expectation of about $50 billion. After-hours stock price rose over 4%, as the market finally sees that AI investment is not just burning money but also generating revenue and cash.
Of course, part of the reduced spending this time is due to delays in third-party computing power delivery, so it can’t all be counted as efficiency improvement. Microsoft’s real advantage is that while Azure accelerates growth, cash flow remains strong. The AI arms race continues; going forward, it’s not about who spends more, but who can convert computing power into cash faster—that’s who will have the confidence to keep investing.
#微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？ Dogecoin (DOGE) Whale (Mega Whale) Classification Standards (Market Common Criteria) - 🐬 Dolphin: 1 million to 10 million DOGE - 🦈 Shark: 10 million to 100 million DOGE - 🐳 Whale: ≥100 million DOGE (can significantly influence the market) - 🦑 Super Mega Whale: ≥1 billion DOGE (institutional/exchange level) Quantity and Chip Situation According to Santiment statistics: there are about 140 wallets holding ≥100 million DOGE, these addresses collectively hold over 108 billion DOGE, with chip concentration far higher than BTC and ETH. Key Big Pitfall: The top on-chain rich list is not a single whale, but Robinhood's custody cold wallet (about 27.2 billion DOGE, nearly 17.5% of circulating supply), which contains coins from hundreds of thousands of retail investors, not one person; second is Upbit, third is Binance, both are exchange custody wallets, representing user asset custody, not private mega whales. The legendary super address that once held nearly 30% of DOGE was split by the end of 2021 and is no longer a single large holder. Characteristics (Compared to BTC/ETH Whales) 1. DOGE is a meme coin with thinner liquidity; a large private whale's big transfer or dump causes much more violent market fluctuations than BTC or ETH, easily triggering panic and chain liquidations. 2. High chip concentration: the top 10 addresses together account for the circulating supplyWhen I see news about this type of institution entering the market, I usually hold back my excitement first. I don't play with high leverage; I hold spot positions long-term. When reading news, I'm more concerned about what it changes rather than how long it can keep the market lively.
According to Bitcoin Treasuries, Germany's fourth-largest asset management company, DekaBank, disclosed for the first time that it bought 104,921 shares of the Bitcoin treasury company Strategy, valued at about $15.2 million. I would highlight "disclosed for the first time" because it doesn't mean we already know the full buying process.
My judgment is that this is a small signal of traditional asset management getting involved with Bitcoin-related assets, but it's not strong enough evidence to consider it a long-term value indicator. They bought company stock, not Bitcoin directly, so this amount can't be counted as new spot buying; stocks are also affected by company operations and financing arrangements, so they can't be equated with holding coins. The data also doesn't show what proportion this holding is of their portfolio. Just looking at the amount, it's hard to judge how much the institution values it.
As for me, I hold without moving and am more interested in whether there will be continuous disclosures later, rather than imagining a trend from a single piece of news. Taking it slow is fine; don't treat the news of institutions buying stocks as a reason to increase your own leverage. For friends holding long-term, will you see this disclosure as a signal of allocation trends, or will you wait for changes in holdings before making a judgment?$ETH big money is quietly making big moves.
In 11 days, 1,847 BTC were sold, then all smashed into ETH at an average price of 2,400, directly lifting 63,000 ETH out.
On the other side, the company Bitmine's holdings are almost 5% of the entire network, and in a single week, they bought over 10,000 ETH against the market trend despite the sell-off.
Exchanges had a net outflow of 160,000 ETH in a single day, with all chips moving into wallets.
Paper chips are flying everywhere, but on-chain spot is all locked up. The market looks soft at this position, but underneath, all the hard assets are being accumulated.
#ETH
$ETH
👇What’s truly worth the crypto community’s attention in Microsoft’s earnings report isn’t the revenue, but that $170 billion.
Capital expenditures exceeded $50 billion in Q2, with a full-year capital expenditure guidance of about $170 billion, accelerating further in the second half of fiscal 2027. Revenue guidance is $96 billion to $97.1 billion, with Azure growth expected at 49%. After the earnings release, the stock jumped 6% in after-hours trading. A company worth trillions of dollars is maintaining positive cash flow while investing its profits aggressively.
This indicates the AI arms race hasn’t slowed down; it’s actually speeding up. Computing power is the ammunition, and no one dares to back off first because doing so means handing customers over to competitors. Therefore, the capital expenditure curve is much steeper than the revenue curve, and the after-hours price surge is the market’s vote.
The transmission to the crypto market isn’t through servers but through liquidity. The world’s wealthiest companies continuously converting cash into computing power assets means risk appetite hasn’t waned. What Bitcoin fears most has never been negative news but the lack of incremental funds coming in. This scale of spending itself is a signal of new capital.
There is a cost. The more expensive computing power becomes, the greater the pressure on miners’ electricity bills and hardware depreciation. Computing power continues to concentrate in low-cost regions and large mining farms, squeezing out space for small and medium miners, with no short-term reversal expected.
So, in the short term, rising computing power costs are bad news for miners; in the medium term, loose liquidity is good news for holders. The bottom for $BTC and $ETH depends on whether capital is willing to pay a premium for the future.
Don’t chase the highs; wait for a pullback confirmation. Today, let's first look at the capital inflow, but we can't rush to judge a reversal yet.
BTC spot and futures are flowing in simultaneously, ETH mainly sees leveraged funds replenishing, while SOL has spot buying support but futures continue to retreat. These three capital structures represent three different strengths and weaknesses.
BTC spot net inflow in 4 hours is $63.39 million, futures net inflow is $9.02 million. Over 24 hours, spot net inflow is $229 million, futures net inflow is $139 million. However, over 30 days, spot still has a net outflow of $724 million, and futures a net outflow of $6.63 billion. Short-term funds have indeed returned, but mid-term deleveraging is not over yet.
ETH spot net outflow in 4 hours is $1.52 million, but futures net inflow is $39.74 million. Over 24 hours, spot net inflow is $32.01 million, futures net inflow is $228 million. The intensity of futures inflow is clearly stronger than spot, indicating this round of replenishment relies more on leverage. Over 30 days, spot net outflow is $3.07 billion, futures net outflow is $7.33 billion, so the mid-term structure remains weak.
SOL spot net inflow in 4 hours is $220,000, futures net outflow is $19.98 million; over 24 hours, spot net inflow is $39.02 million, futures net outflow is $27.9 million. Over 30 days, spot still has a net inflow of $39.6 million. But futures have a cumulative net outflow of $1.83 billion, indicating spot is being supported by buyers, but leveraged funds are still withdrawing.
Currently, BTC has the best structure, SOL has spot support, ETH has the greatest short-term elasticity but also the highest leverage risk. 🐋 Whale's triple short positions show unrealized losses but remain calm: funding fees become "lifeline cash flow"
On-chain big player activity spotted again: the same whale shorts BTC, ETH, and SOL simultaneously on perpetual contracts. All three positions show unrealized losses, but the whale relies on continuous funding fee income to hold the positions, a typical "fee-eating long-term short" strategy.
📊 Position breakdown:
✅ $BTC | 5x full position short, 2,613.29 contracts, market value 210 million U
Opened at 76,343.5 U, unrealized loss 10.5955 million U, funding fees collected 3.1767 million U, liquidation price 137,300.27.
✅ $ETH | 5x full position short, 106,400 contracts, market value 250 million U
Opened at 2,322.74 U, unrealized loss 1.5599 million U, funding fees collected 4.302 million U, liquidation price 3,723.54.
✅ $SOL | 7x full position short, 719,900 contracts, market value 72.6776 million U
Opened at 94.3199 U, unrealized loss 4.7799 million U, funding fees collected 3.8379 million U.
Combined unrealized loss across three positions is about 16.9353 million U, total funding fees collected 11.3166 million U, net unrealized loss after offset is 5.6187 million U; total margin exceeds 102 million U, liquidation prices are far from current prices, so short-term forced liquidation pressure is low.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元
$SKHYNIX's revenue has hit a new high again, and operating profit also reached a new peak.
The stock price has risen from the previous low of around 850 to about 1100 currently.
However, relatively disappointing is the decline in net profit, which fell short of market expectations, but fortunately it is not an operational loss.
The main cause is exchange losses (11.6 trillion KRW).
Due to the appreciation of the Korean won against the US dollar during the reporting period, there was a book loss when converting its foreign currency assets back into Korean won.
Secondly, there was an investment asset valuation loss (22.9 trillion KRW), mainly from the fair value revaluation of investment assets such as Kioxia.
However, Hynix expects the tight memory supply and demand to continue until 2030.
Fortunately, more than half of the capacity for 2027-2028 is already covered by long-term agreements, and investment in 2027 is expected to increase significantly. Observing AI investments and profit margins, it seems that investments are slowing down and profit margins are declining 🤔 Watch out for risks!$ETH Big bro Maji is walking the tightrope again.
Added 40 ETH from unrealized profits, long position piled up to 272 ETH. This time not a single cent was added, all relying on unrealized profits to roll hard, $22,000 margin holding a $645,000 position, actual leverage close to 29x.
The liquidation price has been pushed up all the way to 2,334, current price is only $35 away from the liquidation line.
Just $35 short, let's see if he quickly tops up or just sets off fireworks.Institutional Holdings in This Game: More Coins Locked Up, But No New Money Following
Let's talk some hard numbers. Globally, publicly listed companies (excluding mining firms) collectively hold 1,167,845 BTC, accounting for 5.8% of the circulating market cap, valued at about $93.6 billion; just last week, net purchases totaled $510 million, with Strive alone spending $510 million at an average price of 82,732 to buy 6,182 BTC. Sounds impressive, but breaking it down: Strategy didn't buy that week, nor did Metaplanet. In other words, buying is shifting from "one dominant player" to "several sharing the load," and a new round of collective surge hasn't formed yet. Additionally, the approximately 328,000 BTC held by the U.S. government are confiscated reserves—they won't be actively sold or newly purchased—so the circulating supply is actually being slowly locked up. From a long-term perspective, this is a base position logic; from a short-term view, without new capital inflow, locked holdings can't push the price up. Uptober This year is basically a total bust
Here's a harsh truth: Bitcoin is very likely to close October down this year. As of October 25, it has already dropped 4.2% this month; October 2025 was -3.8%, while the average gain for October from 2020 to 2025 is 22.5%. The mystical "October must rise" theory has been proven wrong two years in a row. The reasons are not mystical: weak US spot demand, AI stocks sucking up money, and interest rates still rising. CryptoQuant's bull market score index also fell from 90 to 60. I actually think this is a phase favored by veterans—retail investors no longer talk about the "October surge" story, leverage is decreasing, and the selling pressure of old coins on-chain is also weakening. The bottom is never shouted out; it is slowly ground out when no one talks about it anymore.#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
【Cloud Business Doubles, But Stock Price Drops Nearly 10%】
Google $GOOGL is growing its business bigger and bigger, yet shareholders are the first to get scared away. Q3 revenue reached $127.6 billion, a 25% year-over-year increase; Google Cloud revenue hit $30.7 billion, doubling directly, with operating profit also up 30%. AI computing power is indeed being paid for, and the cloud business has started turning demand into real cash.
The investment is just too aggressive, a bit hard to sustain. Google’s single-quarter capital expenditure was $51.4 billion, free cash flow turned negative $9.1 billion, and full-year capital expenditure is still expected to reach $195 billion to $205 billion. Management also forecasted a significant increase in investment continuing through 2027. Meanwhile, net profit fell 25% year-over-year, mainly dragged down by about $8.7 billion in equity investment losses, not a sudden slowdown in core business.
The market worries that AI revenue is growing too fast, while the bills for building data centers, buying chips, and power supply are also rising quickly. Cloud business backlog orders have reached $561 billion, indicating strong demand, but order fulfillment and investment returns both require time.
The nearly 10% drop after hours is not because the market doesn’t see AI growth, but because it wants to know when this money-burning race will truly pay off. What Google needs to prove next is that revenue growth can outpace capital expenditure; otherwise, the hotter the cloud business gets, the more shareholders have to pay upfront for the future.Brothers, the pain point list has been updated again, with big changes compared to a few hours ago.
BTC gravity is biased upward at 65%, with 38.99 million short orders stacked above 81869. This is similar to before; the short orders above are still heavier, so the market maker will most likely pull up a bit more to sweep the shorts.
But ETH's pattern has changed — previously biased upward at 68%, now biased downward at 62%. ETH dropped to 2359, with 22.56 million long orders stacked below 2332 and 21.46 million short orders stacked above 2402. The long orders below have already exceeded the short orders above. This means if ETH drops further, it will first trigger the batch of long orders at 2332.
SOL also shifted from biased upward 55% to biased downward 66%, with 4.34 million long orders stacked below 101.16. Once SOL breaks below 101, the long orders will cascade explode.
BNB is the strongest, biased upward 86%, with the heaviest short order pain point above 775. ZEC is biased upward 67%, XRP biased upward 62%.
I think the current situation is very subtle — BTC is still sweeping shorts upward, but ETH and SOL have already started to look downward to trigger long orders. This indicates funds are concentrating from altcoins back to BTC.
If tonight's PCE turns hawkish, ETH and SOL will most likely fall first, while BTC will be relatively resistant to the drop. Don't open longs on all coins simultaneously; funds now only recognize BTC.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Can the storage sector usher in a new round of rebound? SK Hynix has already delivered an answer.
SK Hynix's latest earnings report is indeed strong: revenue of 104 trillion KRW, operating profit margin as high as 80%, and DRAM average selling price up nearly 30% quarter-on-quarter. This indicates that the current price increase in storage is still supported by performance, and demand for high-end products is also improving.
What is even more noteworthy are the long-term contract orders. The number of customers increased from about 10 to 14, and over half of the capacity for 2027–2028 is already covered by agreements. The volume and price negotiations for HBM customers in 2027 have also been completed. For storage companies, the higher the order visibility, the more support there is for profits in the coming quarters.
This earnings report is also a positive signal for SanDisk $SNDK. Improved enterprise SSD demand and stronger NAND prices at least indicate that industry demand has not yet shown signs of a comprehensive downturn. What I look forward to more is how much of these price increases will ultimately convert into SanDisk's gross profit and cash flow.
Next, the focus is on Samsung and SanDisk. If Samsung continues its strong performance, the market's profit expectations for the storage industry may continue to be revised upward, providing more fundamental support for the sector's rebound.
However, SK Hynix's expansion into high-end NAND and enterprise SSD layouts may also become competitive pressure for SanDisk in the future. An upward industry trend is a common benefit, but after capacity expansion, the market will ultimately compare whose profit growth is faster.
In the short term, watch price increases; in the medium term, watch profit realization; in the long term, watch supply and demand patterns.
#SK海力士Q3營收首破100萬億韓元 The U.S. Treasury Secretary's remarks should be seriously listened to by long-term holders
At the Swell conference in New York on October 27, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen made it very clear: USD stablecoins are not speculative toys; they are infrastructure to maintain the dollar's reserve status. Currently, over 90% of stablecoins are pegged to the dollar, and the GENIUS Act requires issuers to hold cash or U.S. Treasuries 1:1. The logic is simple: for every expansion of stablecoins, there is one more buyer of U.S. Treasuries. She also took a jab at the CLARITY Act—which failed in the Senate in September by a 49:50 vote, missing by 11 votes. This is indirectly positive for BTC: the smoother the compliance channels, the less awkward institutional entry becomes. But don't get excited in the short term; legislation takes time to implement, and price reactions depend on real cash ETFs and earnings reports, not just a speech to pump the market.The wall above 87,000 is not something that can be broken through by emotion alone.
Some analysts using Glassnode data say that above $87,000 there is a large amount of trapped chips. Historically, every time the price touches that area, it is often followed by a 25% or even deeper pullback. Looking further down at support: between 80,000 and 81,500 is the average holding cost of spot ETFs and the buy order book zone. So the current pattern is very clear — there is a position to unwind above, a support position below, and 80,000 fluctuates in the middle. On Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 within the year is only 17%, which is a completely different world from the six-figure calls at the beginning of the year. I don't see this as despair; rather, it indicates the bubble has been mostly squeezed out. In trading, don't chase; wait for it to either break 87,000 with volume or pull back to 78,500–80,000 to be supported by funds before making a move.Strategy stopped buying, and this is more important than the earnings report
Latest disclosure from Strategy: As of October 25, it holds 848,517 BTC with an average cost of about $75,446, and still has $5.1 billion in cash. But note, from October 19 to 25, it didn’t buy a single coin, nor did it issue ATM stock to raise funds. So where did the money go? $205 million was used to repurchase STRC preferred shares. Looking ahead, in Q3 it recorded $21 billion in digital asset gains from coin price revaluation, its first profit in four quarters, yet the amount spent on repurchasing its own preferred shares during the same period was eight to nine times the amount spent on buying coins. Seller hasn’t called it quits, but he eased off the gas. For the crypto world, the biggest “infinite buy order” has hit pause, and you need to note this signal in your trading notes. Tonight it will release the Q3 earnings report, which will be the next trigger point.My first reaction upon seeing this message was to calculate the profit first, not to rush into the AI hype. The real accounting is how much profit remains after deducting costs when the business scales up.
Alphabet's Q3 revenue was $127.6 billion, a 25% year-over-year increase; Google Cloud revenue was $30.7 billion, a 103% year-over-year increase. Operating margin was 31.8%, meaning $31.8 operating profit per $100 revenue. However, earnings per share dropped from $2.87 last year to $2.12, which is also an important figure not to overlook.
My judgment is that cloud business growth is substantial but cannot be directly regarded as a positive for on-chain AI projects. Cloud revenue is actual business, which is different from hype around concepts; operating profit growth did not translate into synchronized earnings per share growth, indicating that focusing solely on growth rate can overlook risks.
I would choose a more stable approach: focus on whether demand can be sustained, and not take the big companies' results as endorsement for all AI projects. When facing such doubling growth news, do you wait for more solid profitability performance, or are you willing to take the risk and bet on the spread of the AI narrative?Looking at the ETF accounts this week, I feel a bit disheartened
Data from SoSoValue: On October 27th Eastern Time, the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $176 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone taking in $151 million. Sounds pretty good, right? But if you zoom out—the first three weeks of October looked like this: Week 1 +$241 million, Week 2 -$681 million, Week 3 -$229 million, Week 4 rebounded with +$443 million. Calculated for the whole month, it's still a net outflow of about $175 million. September had a full-month net inflow of $2.6 billion, and August $3.5 billion. In other words, buying is coming back, but it hasn't yet filled this month's gap. Even more disheartening is that Coinbase's premium has been negative for 33 consecutive days, currently at -0.15%, showing that domestic spot buying in the U.S. is weak. For the price to really move, we need to see the ETF not just heat up for a day, but stay green for three to five consecutive days.Why "no rate hike" hasn't pushed the crypto price up
Many people wonder: the interest rate hasn't changed, so why hasn't BTC skyrocketed? Let me break it down for you. First, the September CPI year-on-year is 3.7%, core CPI 2.6%, both higher than last month, with energy as the driving force; second, the University of Michigan's long-term inflation expectations rose to 3.5%, and the one-year expectation to 4.7%, both the highest since May. Inflation isn't coming down, so interest rates remain high or may even rise. Bitcoin is tightly linked to tech stocks—by mid-October, its correlation with the US stock market was the highest since the end of May. So the current "good news" is just that things aren't worse, not that they've improved. If you want to bottom-fish, wait for signals: either the 10-year US Treasury yield turns back from around 5.01%, or ETFs buy real money continuously for several days.The message from early morning, those who understand it are all watching December
The Federal Reserve maintained the rate at 3.75%–4% with a 10:2 vote early this morning, as expected, no surprises. But what really kept traders awake were the two dissenting votes—Cook and Harker both wanted a 25 basis point hike. Chairman Powell's exact words were even tougher: inflation is high, fighting inflation is the Fed's responsibility, and he explicitly said no forward guidance. CME pricing now shows a 78.4% probability of a 25 basis point hike in December, and only 21.6% chance of no change. In plain language: this "pause" is not good news, it's a "hawkish pause." Bitcoin's reaction to this environment is very direct—money is more expensive, and non-yielding assets fall out of favor. Don't rush in just because you hear "no rate hike"—that's the inertia thinking from the first hike in September.#微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？ The most vulnerable thing is actually not that WLD fell below 0.487, but that even the "user growth" card can't move its price anymore. The altcoins in your hands—are they moving to the rhythm of the FOMC, or following their own story? I watched these three targets all night, and the more I look, the more I feel the capital preference has changed. WLD is currently priced at 0.487, World App's user count is still climbing, but the token completely fails to keep up. This divergence is more alarming than the price itself. The narrative of iris-based identity sounds grand, but the controversy over biometric privacy remains unresolved, regulatory signals are vague, and capital clearly discounts assets that "have users but no cash flow." Tomorrow morning when the FOMC decision lands, coins without interest rate narratives can only sway with the broader market, making heavy overnight positions less cost-effective. OKB slid from 114 to around 110 and has been sideways for almost a week. The logic of fee discounts, new project lotteries, and monthly burns remains intact; the fact it doesn't fall means someone is buying, and the fact it doesn't rise means no one is rushing in. This low-volume sideways movement looks more like waiting for direction rather than choosing one. It reflects the capital attitude toward platform tokens: willing to hold, but unwilling to chase. HYPE had a small rebound at 77.6, quarterly protocol fee dividends are progressing, but contract positions haven't followed. This tells me the rise is based on expectations, not new money entering. Without incremental positions supporting before dividend realization, a spike is likely to turn into a sell-off. Using leverage on high-volatility assets before the FOMC is like handing over the rhythm to others. The more bullish path is: after the FOMC decision, risk appetite warms up, assets with real income or dividend support recover first, including OKB and HYPE.Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: The announcement will be made at 2:00 AM Beijing time on October 29. The market expects rates to remain unchanged, but if the tone is hawkish, it may pressure risk assets.
Tech Stocks Correlation: Strong earnings from semiconductor companies like SK Hynix have driven AI concept stocks higher, indirectly boosting Bitcoin sentiment, but beware of a pullback risk after the "good news is fully priced in."
Options Expiry: About $11 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire tonight, potentially causing short-term price volatility, especially near concentrated strike prices (such as 81,000 and 82,000).
Trading Suggestions for $BTC
Short-term Traders: Monitor the 81,820 breakout; if it breaks out with volume, consider light positions with a stop loss below 81,000; if it fails to break and falls below 80,500, consider short positions.
Mid-term Investors: It is recommended to wait for the Fed decision before making directional judgments. Stay on the sidelines within the current range to avoid heavy bets before major events.
Risk Control: Regardless of long or short positions, always set stop losses. Given the current high market volatility, single losses should not exceed 2%-3% of total capital.My first reaction is: changing the growth story does not equal changing the odds. Whether institutional business can fill the gap left by the retreat of speculation will determine if this transformation has a positive expected value.
According to Bloomberg, Solana is seeking to shift from relying on Meme coins and speculative trading to stablecoins and tokenized assets, aiming for adoption by Wall Street; JPMorgan Chase, Visa, and others have already started related businesses on the network. However, its on-chain perpetual contract trading volume share has dropped from 17% to 6%, and the US-listed spot and staked SOL ETFs have seen net outflows of about $50 million for two consecutive weeks this month.
I tend to view this as a positive long-term signal rather than a short-term reversal indicator. Institutional entry reduces the risk of application failure, but business implementation does not equal token value capture. The transformation is worth looking forward to only if payments and asset settlements can continuously contribute fees; if it’s just big name recognition with little actual use, I wouldn’t assign a high valuation to the story.
Facing this kind of transformation, do people value the probability of business realization more, or the odds of betting in advance?看完微软这季财报和电话会，只能说妥妥的优等生。Azure的增长速度比上季更快，企业AI的使用也在加深。前期投入开始产生更多收入，这一点已经能从报表里看到。但如果据此认为资本开支的压力已经过去，结论就下得太早了。 今夜凌晨微软公布2027财年第一季度业绩，对应2026年7月至9月： 营收922.79亿美元，同比增长19%；营业利润459.15亿美元，增长21%；剔除OpenAI投资损益后的每股收益4.89美元，增长18%。Azure收入增长48%，下一季度固定汇率增长指引进一步提高到49%至50%。 部分新增产能延迟交付，Azure仍在加速；经营现金流增加，自由现金流却同比下降。现有基础设施正在产生更多收入，现金资本支出的增量仍然超过经营现金流的增量。后续财报需要回答，这个差距能否逐步缩小。 1、Azure加速增长 工程优化提供了额外支撑 Azure本季收入331.65亿美元，比上年同期增加107.81亿美元。按重列后的可比口径计算，Azure贡献了微软集团收入同比增量的约74%。 一个单季收入超过330亿美元的业务，还能从上季42%的增速加快到48%，对整个公司的影响已经很大。 过去分$BTC is at 81,212, up 0.68% in 24 hours, $ETH up 0.48%, $SOL up 1.2%, with all major coins in the green. However, the total crypto market cap fell by 2.13%, now at 2.74 trillion, as money withdraws from altcoins. On the losers list, GRASS dropped 9.16%, VVV down 7.3%, both mid-cap coins, showing a broad decline.
BTC dominance is 59.48%, with a turnover rate of only 1.58%, this modest gain is supported by capital parking. The Fed did not move in October, and CICC expects another rate hike in December, so macro conditions offer no support.
The only sector with heat is meme coins. $PEPE rose 11.05%, turnover at 39.29%, many trades but little holding. On the contract side, BLUR funding rate is -0.52%, shorts pay high fees but do not exit; such a structure often leads to further price declines.
In the next 72 hours, BTC dominance will continue to rise, with altcoins underperforming majors. Rotation only begins when dominance falls below 59% and total market cap turns positive; if BTC falls below 80,000, the majors’ resilience ends. Last night, I really got stopped out on my short position by BTC! Although I had said a few days ago not to chase shorts near BTC at 80,000, to watch out for a rebound shakeout, and I reminded again yesterday that no rate hike doesn't mean easing. But I still wanted to follow the bearish bias and lightly try a short. As a result, ETH surged straight to 2391, hitting my short stop loss set at 2375. Fortunately, I locked in some profits early and still ended up making a profit! Looking at the Fed, rates remain at 3.75%–4.00%, with a 10 to 2 vote, and two even advocating for a hike, so it's definitely hawkish! But the dollar and US Treasury yields rising together, which I worried about last night, didn't happen; the dollar actually fell back, the 2-year yield dropped, and only the 10-year yield continued to rise. The bearish news came, but the market didn't crash as expected! This morning, BTC peaked at 81,787, then returned near 81,300; ETH touched 2391, then retreated to 2360. The resistance levels I watched at 81,280 and 2370 were both broken through, and the 4-hour chart is above the short-term moving average. This rebound is indeed stronger than yesterday; the short squeeze I worried about really came! My judgment remains cautiously bullish in the short term, but the overall direction is still bearish! If BTC can't hold 81,800–82,000 and ETH 2390–2400, I still prefer to wait for the rebound to be resisted before shorting, rather than chasing near support!麻吉大哥空单全摊在明处：BTC空了2613枚，开仓在76343，浮亏1203万；ETH空了10.64万枚，浮亏336万；SOL空了71.99万枚，浮亏551万。两千多万浮亏，全网都等着看他被抬走。 先泼盆冷水：靠强平抬不动。三笔全是全仓，BTC的爆仓价在135031，ETH在3671，SOL在293，保证金一笔就垫了四五千万美元。价再磨上去一截，伤的是面子，不是仓位。 而且他是收钱的那一方：三笔空单的资金费已经收了1140多万，浮亏两千多万，等于磨一天回一天血。区间里耗着，着急的不是收租的人。 他真正的风险不在杠杆，在数据。决议刚落地，票数十比二、两张反对票主张加息；GDP和PCE今晚才出，数据热一点，空单直接翻身，数据软一点，才轮得到多头谈逼空。赌他割肉，就是赌数据站哪边。 还有个细节，他空的只有BTC、ETH、SOL，没碰ZEC。ZEC这轮走独立行情，拥挤的也不在空头那边，他没去惹它，算他清醒。 我的看法：别等他平仓点火，燃料论得先有突破才成立。我只盯两样，价带量站稳区间上沿、长线仓回补。不到齐，他就还是收租状态，我不替他着急。$KORU: Feels like KORU is a bit lagging behind. The main heavyweight stocks, Hynix and Samsung, have both rebounded well, but where is the 3x rebound in KORU? It seems to be only about 1x in sync, which is quite strange 😂Three "rises," three different market languages
$BEAT's rise is the most eye-catching: up 19.1% in 24 hours, at 0.08616. But in the six-hour stats, open interest increased by about 5.1%, and expanded exposure does not equal more bulls. The price still sharply retraced above 0.08, and the position expansion did not bring a smoother path. Behind the daily rise is a period of high volatility; you can't just look at the result.
$ETH is at 2333.24, up 0.8% in 24 hours. In the previous four hours, it oscillated around 2315 with a trading volume of about 65.81 million USDT, up about 42% from before, but the price basically closed flat—volume first corresponds to divergence and has not yet turned into price lifting. The subsequent quote rose to 2333, which is a change in the new phase and should be recognized separately; the volume increase without moving far should be viewed separately from the newer price lift.
$SUI is at 0.9209, up 0.9%. After rebounding from 0.9011, the pullback mostly stopped near 0.909, and the low did not continue to expand downward, which is a more substantial improvement than the daily rise. The local low point has been raised, but 0.9312 has not yet been surpassed, so it is still one step away from a smooth rise.
BEAT is position expansion amid volatility, ETH is a new price lift after volume increase, and SUI is a pullback with a rising center of gravity. The three "rises" are not of the same nature.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布