Orbit: Crypto Community Feed

Yesterday, I briefly discussed the geopolitical aspects of South Korea and Japan, and just one day later, both countries simultaneously intervened in the market. Everyone knows about the sharp rise in SK Hynix, but the yen exchange rate, which is closely watched less by the stock and crypto circles, also experienced intense fluctuations. After last year's tariff war, the yen exchange rate surged from 140 towards 160+, recently reaching a high near 164. I remember a couple of years ago, I even bet with Ni Da @PhyrexNi on whether the yen exchange rate in October 2024 would be closer to 160 or 130. However, back then Japan still had some strength, and the yen was still fluctuating widely, which is completely different from the current one-sided depreciation trend. The core issue for South Korea and Japan now is that their industrial chains are being dismantled by China and the US. Especially many of Japan's originally advantageous industries have been caught up by China, which has suppressed profit margins. Without external profits to exchange for dollars to replenish their own currency, combined with dual-use export bans aimed at breaking Japan's national fortune, the future outlook is bleak, and depreciation expectations are high. Many say that the recent major stock market turmoil in South Korea is because money was taken by the US and technology was taken by China. While not entirely accurate, there is some truth to this. First, the money was indeed taken. Despite the flight ban not being implemented, the rebound's strength mainly came from foreign capital. Data shows that today set a record for the largest single-day net foreign capital inflow, with SK Hynix at 3.59 trillion and Samsung at 2.10 trillion. After this bottom-fishing, local Korean capital control may further decline. In contrast, in the previous four trading days (24th-29th), foreign capital was a net seller of 11.95 trillion. They smashed first and then pulled back, striking decisively, leaving the Korean people with a lifetime of huge debts that are hard to repay, which is truly lamentable. Technology itself is not directly taken away, but the severe damage to the "Three Seas" (Samsung, SK Hynix, and others) combined with repeated US demands to relocate factories objectively gave Chinese capital more time to catch up. With the stock prices of the "Three Seas" falling and Changxin rising, a capital cost scissors gap has formed. The essence of the capital expenditure competition is decided by whose capital is cheaper, and this scissors gap daily prices the speed of "catch-up time" transfer. The collapse of salaries and morale caused by the stock price plunge will accelerate engineers moving to Chinese capital. South Korea and China are geographically and culturally close, and China's visa-free policy for Koreans provides convenience. Engineers can even interview in Suzhou or Hefei without paperwork. In reality, cases of technology leaks by Korean prosecutors have never stopped. From the perspective of the US dollar tide, there are few countries large enough to absorb and compensate for the US deficit, and China certainly will not rescue Japan. At least before Changxin conquers HBM, South Korea still belongs to the united front target of both pulling and fighting, so the injury might be lighter. In summary, in this stock market crash, the US took away financing rights, pricing rights, major client orders, and increasing claims on future profits; China took away industrial profit margins and time to catch up technologically. South Korea and Japan still have factories, engineers, and core technologies but bear the highest capital expenditures, exchange rate volatility, and geopolitical costs. The intense fluctuations in the Korean stock market and the yen exchange rate reveal this truth. #韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%，创历史最大单日涨幅 #日韩同日抛售美元护汇 $SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU