Decoding @Kalshi: A $2 Billion Prediction Unicorn
1. Platform Definition
Nature: The first CFTC (federal) regulated prediction market exchange in the United States.
Mechanism: Trading on the "yes/no" outcomes of events. Contract prices ($0.01-$0.99) represent probabilities. If the prediction is correct, each contract pays out $1; if incorrect, it becomes worthless.
Market: Sports (accounting for 75% of trading volume), politics, economics, weather, etc.
Data (2025): Valuation of $2 billion, approximately 2 million users, with a trading volume of $2 billion in the first half of the year.
2. Core Trading Strategy
High Probability Trading: Based on external data (polls, weather forecasts, etc.), buy high certainty events that are undervalued by the market (price >$0.80 or <$0.20).
Cross-Platform Arbitrage: Profit from price differences between platforms like @Kalshi and @Polymarket.
Statistics: Use data models to predict probabilities and identify deviations from market pricing.
3. Core Business Strategy
Regulatory Advantage (Core Barrier): Holds a CFTC federal license, allowing legal operation in all 50 states, bypassing state-level gambling license restrictions, and directly competing with rivals like DraftKings (legal in only 38 states).
Market Transformation: Successfully transitioned from a cyclical political market to a high-frequency, stable sports market (accounting for 75% of trading volume).
Low Fees: Trading fees are about 1-2%, significantly lower than traditional sports betting (5-10%).
API Support: Attracts quantitative traders and market makers, providing deep liquidity.
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