🧵 Macro Monday: The Frenzy Returns
1) Equities defy shutdown → Dow, S&P, & Russell 2000 at record highs
➤ BTC +12%, crosses $125K ATH
➤ #Gold +45% YTD, best run since ’79
➤ But shutdown drags on, labor softens, & services sector stagnates
2) Market Overview
➤ Fresh AI + chip stock rally lifts equities to new highs
➤ Small caps join record run (RUT ATH)
➤ Nasdaq lags on profit-taking
➤ $BTC demand +$1.6B on-chain since shutdown began
➤ Gold hits $3,916/oz, driven by CB buying & #ETF flows
3) Sentiment
➤ Risk appetite turning “manic”
– @Bloomberg equity sentiment indicator surging
– Low put/call ratio = crowded bullish bets
– % of S&P 500 hitting highs ↑
– But junk vs IG spread flashing caution
4) Pharma Policy
➤ #Trump launches “TrumpRx” website → discounted drug access
➤ Pfizer deal: avoids tariffs in exchange for avg. 50%+ price cuts
➤ New parity pricing for Medicaid & EU-style benchmarks
➤ Pharma spared tariffs, consumers see relief
5) US Macro: Shutdown Day 6
➤ Dems holding out for ACA credits; GOP pushing temp CR
➤ Agencies suspending ops → no jobs report, no CPI print
➤ Risks to #GDP if prolonged; inflation-linked markets lack data
➤ Market largely shrugs… for now
6) Labor Market
➤ ADP payrolls -32k in Sept → hiring slowdown
➤ Job market “frozen”: sluggish hiring, modest wage gains, few layoffs
➤ Weakness adds to Fed cut expectations
➤ @GoldmanSachs' Solomon: long-term acceleration likely via tech + stimulus
7) Services PMI
➤ #ISM services falls to 50.0 (vs 52.0 Aug), surprise stagnation
➤ Business activity index contracts for 1st time since 2020
➤ Manufacturing also in contraction (though moderating)
➤ Weaker demand + hiring delays weigh on services
8) Tariff Stimulus?
➤ #Trump weighing $10B+ farm aid, esp. soybeans (prices down 5% YoY)
➤ Farmers losing ~$100/acre amid trade war costs
➤ Xi-Trump meeting in Korea may shape farm relief path
➤ Floats $1k-$2k “tariff rebate” checks to households → pro-growth but inflationary
9) Crypto
➤ Swift building blockchain to rival stablecoins (partners: BofA, Citi, NatWest)
➤ @coinbase applying for Nat’l Trust Charter → expand custody & payments
➤ #Tether pushing $200M tokenized gold initiative (XAUt ~$1.5B cap) → physical vaults + redeemable bars
10) Summary
➤ Equity + #crypto euphoria continues despite shutdown & slowing data
➤ Gold’s historic run signals hedging + de-dollarization
➤ Policy shifts (TrumpRx, tariff rebates) add volatility
➤ Mania climbing higher, but cracks in #macro widening
11) Stay tuned for next week’s Macro Monday!
Markets are euphoric now, but can they stay immune to weakening data?
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