For the opening of $ff @FalconStable today, we need to see if Han is on board; if not, we can still look at 3b.
dwf's narrative space for stablecoins is limited, after all, it doesn't have the dominance of Tether, nor the DeFi nesting of USDE, and lacks the backing of a benefactor like USDH/USD1.
We can only work hard to push it up; there’s nothing particularly interesting like a "TVL value amplifier."
I believe stablecoins basically don’t have any vampire attacks... People use stablecoins for safety rather than high yields; high yield strategies are DeFi tactics, and DeFi tactics require various nesting, which $ff currently does not possess.
Regarding the $FF opening prediction analysis tonight👉
Analyst @ChloeTalk1 wrote an analysis about tonight's Falcon $FF, and 无畏 translated and shared it.
Falcon Finance will open at 9 PM tonight on BN, and the pre-market price on Whale market is 0.29, close to a market cap of 3B. So, is it worth getting in after the opening?
From the product form, we all know that $FALCON @FalconStable is a clone of $ENA @EthenaLabs. Currently, the issuance of $USDE for $ENA has reached 14B, while the issuance of $USDF for $FALCON is only 1.8B. In terms of stablecoin issuance scale, $USDF is only 12.8% of $USDE, which shows a significant gap.
The reasons for this large gap are as follows:
First, $ENA, as the project that first proposed the concept of "derivative synthetic stablecoins," has always been at the forefront of market development, attracting the most attention and liquidity in the derivative synthetic stablecoin space.
Second, the timing is different. $ENA entered the market at the peak of LSDfi, which provided $ENA with a large amount of LSD assets as collateral to mint a significant amount of $USDE.
Third, with the recovery of the $BTC market, perp trading volume and funding fees have continued to rise, bringing high returns to the first batch of users participating in $USDE staking, allowing $ENA to reap the early benefits of the bull market.
For Falcon Finance to break through and narrow the gap with $ENA, it needs to take a differentiated approach from the existing narrative.
First, although $FALCON is also a derivative synthetic stablecoin, it supports a wider variety of altcoin tokens, while $ENA currently only has core trading pairs of BTC, ETH, and SOL. $FALCON has expanded to include more asset categories. This aligns with the style of @DWF_Labs behind $FALCON, which has years of experience as a market maker in altcoin asset trading. As we know, the funding fees for altcoins are generally higher than those for BTC, ETH, and SOL, which means $USDF can provide higher returns for holders.
Second, when $ENA was developing, it chose LSD assets as the source of liquidity, which aligned with the main narrative of the previous cycle, maximizing the attraction of liquidity. Similarly, one of the core narratives this round is the Trump concept, so we also see $FALCON actively introducing $USD1 as collateral, which brings possibilities for $FALCON's future rapid growth. If Trump continues to govern for another three years, $USD1 will have a high growth period in the next three years, which will bring high liquidity to $FALCON.
Third, the circular lending model. The expansion of $ENA's $USDE relies on the circular lending combination of @aaveaave + @pendle_fi. Through Aave + Pendle, $ENA can link the funding fee spread of the perp market with the lending spread on-chain, stimulating a wave of DeFi users to use circular lending with $USDE for arbitrage, thus providing significant support for the rapid expansion of $USDE.
Currently, $FALCON's circular lending path has not been fully established, and the funding fees for altcoins will be even more exaggerated than those for BTC and ETH, which means that arbitrage has a higher interest spread, supporting higher leverage, further stimulating the growth of $USDF.
Fourth, through the vampire attack of $ASTER @asterxyz on $HYPE @HyperliquidX, market users are reminded once again of the immense power of liquidity mining and trading mining.
At this moment, with $FALCON's TGE behind and $ASTER's vampire attack on $HYPE in front, if $FALCON wants to quickly catch up with $ENA, a rapid surge after going live on BN is very much in the interest of the project team. Through vampire attacks + liquidity mining, they can quickly compete for the market.
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