buying 7-day YT tokens at $0.001 when implied yield sits at 30% prints 129x if actual yield hits 60%. wintermute made $18m in q3 running this exact time decay arbitrage on pendle. the setup: YTs near expiry trade at 99% discounts because everyone thinks there's no time left to collect yield. wrong. yield spikes in the final week happen 40% of the time on ethena products. set limit buys at 0.001 usdc per YT on any token expiring within 14 days, exit at 10x or expiry.
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