This might be a hot take, but I believe Bitcoin's security model is likely to fail in the coming years. And the answer is Cardano.
Here’s the thread: As block rewards continue to shrink, there’s a real risk the security model breaks down. Bitcoin's governance is either too rigid or non-existent to fix this fundamental issue.
Simply put: The halvings steadily lower the block reward. But a high BTC price could lead to lower transaction volume, meaning fees won't be enough to make up for the lost rewards. This creates a serious security budget problem. Eventually, it could become more profitable to attack the network than to secure it.
Cardano has a similar foundation: a fixed total supply and a predictable inflation schedule. And like any decentralized network, more participation leads to greater security.
But here's the key difference: If Cardano were to face a security model issue like the one threatening Bitcoin, it has the governance structure to rapidly change the protocol's direction.
For example, if rising native coin prices make transaction fees a burden on the network, the community can vote to adjust the base fees through governance. These values are called protocol parameters.
Bitcoin risks becoming obsolete because it can't properly react to major technological, economic, or social shifts. Cardano, however, is structurally designed to adapt and evolve through its governance system.
In the end, Cardano is the only chain that truly inherits the core values of Bitcoin and evolves them to the next level. In the long run, this makes Cardano more sustainable and gives it the structure to adapt and improve in response to external changes a structure Bitcoin lacks.
There’s no such thing as technology that stays the same forever. Tech isn’t a religion. And Bitcoin might already be on its way to becoming outdated.
$BTC is expected to collapse due to security issues within the next 7 to 11 years.
It seems like a sufficiently convincing argument... In summary, it goes like this:
---
The security model of BTC is collapsing.
- Bitcoin's security relies on miner rewards (block rewards + fees), but block rewards decrease every four years due to halving → the security budget continues to shrink.
- Fees need to replace this, but in reality, high fees are unsustainable.
- Most users will leave the network when fees spike.
- This will lead to a point where miner rewards become too low, making attacks advantageous.
In the end, there are only two choices.
- Break the 21M supply cap and allow inflation, or remain in a vulnerable security state and face double spending and censorship attacks...
- Either way, it undermines the intrinsic value of BTC and erodes market trust.
BTC can process about 7 transactions per second → very low throughput.
- When tens of millions of users attempt to withdraw simultaneously, the transaction queue can extend for months to years.
- Price crash + inability to escape + panic → vicious cycle → death spiral.
- Decrease in hash rate → block generation delays → chain slows down → greater panic → repeat.
BTC's governance is also centralized.
- The Bitcoin Core development team holds actual control, and most opposing voices were silenced during the block size controversy.
- 6 people hold GitHub commit rights = a structure close to technical dictatorship.
- This has created a system that cannot change or respond, losing crisis response capability in the long term.
BTC fundamentally has a failed structure and lacks a governance that can change.
Ultimately, within 7 to 11 years, we could see the depletion of the security budget + bank run + chain split + chaos occurring simultaneously.
Therefore, we need to escape from BTC and find other solutions...
11.07K
123
The content on this page is provided by third parties. Unless otherwise stated, OKX is not the author of the cited article(s) and does not claim any copyright in the materials. The content is provided for informational purposes only and does not represent the views of OKX. It is not intended to be an endorsement of any kind and should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell digital assets. To the extent generative AI is utilized to provide summaries or other information, such AI generated content may be inaccurate or inconsistent. Please read the linked article for more details and information. OKX is not responsible for content hosted on third party sites. Digital asset holdings, including stablecoins and NFTs, involve a high degree of risk and can fluctuate greatly. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.