now the kids are asleep, have a ≈6000 word rough draft that unpacks this
The Ethereum and Solana theses that all/most of internet finance will settle/execute on one hub have been proven false, in my opinion.
This is partly why we are seeing so much outrage and cope from both camps over the Circle + Stripe decisions.
The Celestia thesis that there will be 10,000x more demand for high performance/verifiable/cheap/customizable blockspace is just starting to be tested (the jury is still out, but the odds of success will become much clearer over the next 3-12 months).
Although I think both ETH and SOL can still become trillion-dollar assets without becoming all-encompassing hubs (i.e., still do a 2x and 10x from here), it’s clear to me that TIA is a far more interesting asymmetric bet at this stage (sitting at around a $2bn market cap, and down more than 90% from ATHs; if the thesis plays out, you could potentially be sitting on a 50-100x over the next few years — though bear in mind this is far from a given, in my personal and highly subjective opinion, I would put the odds of success at close to 50%).
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