每一轮熊牛交易后,都有一段持续4-5个月的大单边上涨行情。这段行情如果抓住了,并且是用中等杠杆币本位去做多的,基本都能发财,达到四两拨千斤的效果。这段行情一结束,此后基本就全部是震荡上行,短线合约上的风险增多不少,看似后面btc价格会越来越高,但对于合约而言再多本金都不大可能实现单边上涨趋势里同等的收益,因为震荡是一定会有磨损或损耗的。所以每轮大周期里比特币减半日一过,就不太适合币本位做多,因为短中线上价格下行时,币本位做多也相当于双倍亏损。
以前很多交易员都讲做好4年一轮熊牛大周期就可以财务自由。其实,不需要4年,4年太久了,会非常疲劳。真正抓住那最重要的几个月单边行情,就足够了,它在整个4年里占据相当重要的位置。
2022年12月-2025年11月这轮进场较晚以及整体收获不大的币友,不要放弃,保存实力,静待下一轮赚钱效应最大的大单边上涨周期。明年如果是下轮熊市,明年上半年就要提前做准备了,因为你如果不在接近最低点买入足够多的现货作为币本位的筹码,那么下一个大单边上涨行情里只做u本位的话,同比收获就会比币本位要少一倍以上。最大化的收益一定是低价现货+单边上涨趋势中币本位做多这个组合拳去实现达成的。
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