I'd love for prediction markets to either be denominated in rETH/stETH/etc. and/or use the locked up capital to generate yield in DeFi.
I don't want to give up ETH exposure over longer durations. I suppose that's also why some highly unlikely outcomes don't make sense. Because who would bet on a 97% outcome over x months when USDC gives more APY?
The cost of locking up capital skews these markets.
5% chance aliens land on earth within 1 year?
That's because a 5% payout on the NO side is the minimum anyone would be willing to bet on this, as it competes with the APY for the capital at stake.
More integrated DeFi solves this and also (that's my thesis) massively increases participation in these markets.
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