⚡️有人给我发这个,validatorqueue 数据显示,67.7万ETH排队退出质押队列,是不是代表以太坊稳不住了。
分析了一下,队列激增是多方面的原因——
1️⃣获利了结:ETH自4月低点反弹超过160%,从约1,500美元涨至3,800美元以上
很多早期质押者选择落袋为安。
2️⃣策略失效:7月16-21日,Aave借贷利率从3%暴涨到18%,导致LST/LRT循环策略收益倒挂,强制大规模赎回。
3️⃣孙哥出手:单人就从Lido和Aave中撤出6w ETH,巨鲸示范效应放大了市场情绪。
这些积压的ETH大约需要15天左右才能消化,短期内对流动性确实有冲击。不过不能只看到退出数据,流入数据也值得关注——
现在排队等待质押的 ETH 也有 24.5 万枚,强需求 + 机构慢慢扫货,这说明市场并不是全面出逃,反而有资金在抓准窗口换位进场。
而且从更大视角看,以太坊的质押结构正在进入一个更“主动调仓、更高流动性”的新阶段:
以前是锁死型 staking,现在是动态流转,追着收益率和策略跑。
这不是坏事,这就是成熟资产该有的样子。
所以我认为基本面其实并没有恶化,一旦技术性积压清理完毕,净质押ETH就会恢复增长趋势。
如果实在害怕,就赶紧把手上的三瓜俩枣卖了吧,市场肯定接得住,我愿意2888一枚低价回收!

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