Recently, the Circle has finally rebounded a bit and collapsed back into the 180 range.
After looking at it, Mizuho, Japan's third-largest brokerage, also issued a bearish rating report, which is similar to JPMorgan Chase's previous bearish views.
They all believe that the upcoming interest rate cut will lead to a decrease in Circle's interest income, and at the same time, a large amount of income needs to be subsidized to partners to maintain market share, and profit margins will decline rapidly.
At the same time, Mizuho also pointed out that USDC's market capitalization has remained at $62 billion since April this year, with no significant growth.
According to CMC, USDC's market capitalization has increased by about 105.7 million in the past month, but the leading USDT has increased by about 402 million, which is a huge gap.
Good guys, JPMorgan Chase & Co. has issued a bearish rating on Circle across the board, with a price target of 80 u (now 182), with a similar view to the previously mentioned bearish tweet:
· Circle is currently heavily reliant on interest single income (97%), and every time the Fed cuts rates, the company's income shrinks significantly.
· In order to allow the exchange channel to push USDC, 60-70% of the interest income should be allocated to the partner.
· There are more and more stablecoin counterparts trying to seize the market with higher yields or usage scenarios, which will cause a share of USDC.
· If the U.S. stablecoin bill is implemented as expected, it will force Circle, like a bank, to increase its own capital and put it on the books, resulting in diluted returns.
· In addition to stablecoin counterparts, many income products, such as tokenized market funds, are also Circle's main competitors.
At present, JPMorgan Chase & Co. believes that to see whether Circle can become a stablecoin version of Swift, it needs to focus on Circle's progress in serving e-commerce, cross-border payments in Southeast Asia, and making traditional payments such as Visa and Mastercard also rely on USDC.
Otherwise, Circle can only be the one among the many ordinary stablecoin issuers that is sensitive to business and has weak price rights due to compliance (which seems to imply compliance with success and compliance, and compliance with defeat and restriction).
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