Don't worry, next week I'll share the July auctions for 1-year, 10-year, and 30-year U.S. Treasuries. Let's see if there's a significant increase in the issuance of U.S. Treasuries!
我跟肉桂平时沟通交流比较多，其实大家都非常知道对方在说啥。这次我觉得是头部形态除了前面说的利好出尽那些原因。还有一个非常核心的论点是美债流动性问题。大漂亮法案通过之后最重要的一个点就是提高了5万亿美债上限，按照之前每年增加2万多亿的速度看这些钱够花两年，债也会陆续发出来。
那么在TGA账户余额不断减少，美联储还没有放水的当下，新的美债一旦发行并推向市场必然会导致流动性匮乏，原有的市场蓄水池（币圈也是这个蓄水池的一部分）会被不停地抽水直到美联储降息放水。市场在这个间隔期就非常脆弱，很容易因为一些突发事件短期快速闪崩。
所以在价格相对比较高的位置，我觉得低倍做空更有性价比，等到市场风险彻底出清再低价反手多进来岂不美哉。
看看这TGA账户不断减少的余额，后续卖债回补是必然。天下水共一石，美债独占八斗，美股占一斗，币圈跟别的标的物共分一斗还尚且时不时被黑山老妖拿去吸血，所以说现在币圈哪有自己脱离基本面独涨的客观条件呢？
美债收益率随着大漂亮法案的推动也开始反弹，后续美债侵占流动性的信号非常明显了
近期市场需消化额外的 数千亿美元的短期票据，虽然景顺固定收益（Invesco Fixed Income）的北美投资级信贷主管Matt Brill认为市场上高达7万亿美元的货币市场基金正在提供支撑，但这7万亿里面有多少是币圈的钱，又有多少原本可能是准备买大饼的钱呢？如果这些钱被抽去买美债，币圈还有钱上涨吗？
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