When a chicken stands on a lawn, people will first see and describe it as "there's a chicken on the lawn." Human attention bias makes the "chicken" stand out against the "lawn," and people will be more concerned about what the chicken looks like and what it is doing. Who is becoming that chicken, and who is just a blade of grass in this lawn? How do we choose who to become? This might be the next topic for infofi.
后半夜应酬完简单写两句。从 @KaitoAI 举起了 InfoFi 的大旗也不过半年时间,却已然恍如隔世,深刻改变了推特信息流和币圈 marketing 格局。
但我始终觉得我对于 InfoFi 的理解和 @Punk9277 有些出入,因此对于各种嘴撸始终若即若离,觉得不够有意思。
下面写点碎碎念,不构成理财投资建议:
- Kaito 核心做的是分发(目前 slogan 也讲“Distribution layer”),是好的 Broker 生意。
- 但核心在于,Broker 做不了定价,本质上没有流量池子,也没有资沉。这和 @cyrilxuq 讲的“web2 媒介做不了定价,平台可以”是一个道理。
- 所以除了开质押、做多平台以外,一定会顺势做 launchpad,试着做一下资产发射。因此在这个点位看多 $kaito 是没有逻辑问题的。
- 但是之前的 @stayloudio 等等是很失败的尝试,本身发射和操盘其实还行,但最大的问题是给发射台做了一个心理硬顶,不是件好事情。Yuhu 老师被群众里面的坏人当枪使了。
- InfoFi 的核心是给信息做定价,如果信息本身能影响其他标的价格的话。后半句挺重要的,因为一堆AI生成,熵近乎于0的信息根本就不值得定价。更多的是项目方给钱,Kaito 作为指挥棒让KOL转,中腰部以下人群嘴撸的虚假繁荣。
- 为什么对 InfoFi 感兴趣,以及这个事情急迫,是因为 ████████████████████████。东西正在做,和币圈没啥关系,干中学不如行胜于言,合适的时间会讲。
- 这个东西思考起来是很有意味的,而且不会是上几轮周期的简单押韵,核心在于:
1. 人类和信息的交互方式,相较于搜索引擎和推荐系统来讲,即将产生根本性变革。
2. 人类生产和传播 disinformation 的边际成本在快速趋近于零。
3. 大部分标的边际买者(Marginal buyer, inspired by @primitivecrypto)的决策方式发生行为金融学意义上的根本改变。
相较于理性人假设渐行渐远,专注时间急剧下降,决策更加短平快,娱乐和投资的界限会越来越模糊。
果子烂了,就此烂下去,世界会越来越乱糟糟的。火中取栗和火上浇油都是一种选择,我们总是选择更难的一种。
最后以一段与友人的对话结尾:

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