Tariffs are playing havoc with economic behaviors & data, triggering the mother of all front-running cycles.
- Imports soared in the first quarter, as companies scrambled to get ahead of tariffs, which when combined with weak exports, caused the largest jump..
The challenge is that those shifts will be occurring, even as the cumulative effects of earlier curbs on federal employment & grant freezes hit the ecosystems of some of economies across the country.
The @AtlantaFed has estimated that the collateral damage…
That is hard as it could create a floor under Treasury bond yields - the compensation needed for investors to lend us long.
We still see the economy averting a recession but growth is below potential and that will nudge the unemployment rate higher.
It just doesn’t rise fast enough to be considered an “official” recession.
2026 looks better as long as the Fed can begin rate cuts to provide an additional lift to activity.
That said, if it walks like a 🦆 & quacks like a 🦆, it’s a 🦆.
Could be a bumpy second half of 2025.
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