"Essays 09 - Repeatedly"
1. Recently, my trades have resulted in more losses than gains, but I'm still engaged in small position trading. Today's realization is: when you make money, run away; don't hold onto fantasies.
Yesterday, a coin $stupid, I jumped in at a high point, made 20-30% and wanted to get in and out quickly, but I fantasized it would be the next $aura, and ended up losing money instead.
When everyone is fantasizing about the next $aura and still willing to jump in, it's time to give up that fantasy and leave. There aren't that many $aura out there.
2. A few days ago, when BTC suddenly dropped below 100,000, all the coins I held plummeted too, like #startup $KLED $PCULE. At that moment, #startup was profitable, so I quickly sold it off.
I was losing on $KLED $PCULE, and my thought at that moment was that I was afraid the market would continue to drop, and that these coins would be even deeper in the red tomorrow. I thought I shouldn't keep holding these coins anymore; I should cut losses if they break down, focusing on right-side trading, and I ended up selling almost at the lowest point. The next day and the day after, #Launchcoin led the way back to 120 million, 130 million, and several ecological coins quickly recovered to their highs.
If I hadn't sold at a loss and waited two days, I would have been in profit. So, did I make a mistake by cutting my losses?
I believe I absolutely made a mistake in cutting losses. The reasons are as follows:
(1) I have experienced countless BTC crashes that took down small coins over the years. My experience is that good coins will recover. I rarely cut losses during such times; why did I do it that day?
My thought at that time was that I wanted to transition from a companion-type trader to an aggressive trader, switching from left-side to right-side trading, and I cut losses out of fear of deeper drops. Looking back now, it seems quite ridiculous.
(2) I was holding coins I understood very well, including their fundamentals, profit models, development levels, etc. None of this changed, and even if the market was wrongfully punishing them, I shouldn't have cut losses even if I didn't add to my position.
An external reason is that the believe platform faced market speculation because Ben didn't provide the expected token flywheel, etc. LC also dropped below 100 million, but I recognize Ben's direction, which is to attract more excellent developers to issue tokens while establishing a reasonable token flywheel. Since I recognize it, why cut losses?
(3) There will continue to be buyers for the believe platform because there are no better options in the market. Compared to other projects, some coins in the believe ecosystem are still quite good. Even if web2 funds haven't brought much, the on-site funds will still choose. I held this view before cutting losses, not after the fact.
So, in the words of Duan Yongping:
If the points you are optimistic about haven't decreased, and the points you are pessimistic about haven't increased, don't pay too much attention to market prices. The mismatch between price and value is the opportunity.
If I had used the above standards to judge on the day of the crash, I wouldn't have cut losses. But at that moment, fear overcame me, and I won't make the same mistake next time; that's the greatest value of this loss.
3. Regarding patiently waiting for good opportunities, is doing nothing the right approach?
I believe this is suitable for mature investors who are completely clear about their strike zone. If you haven't reached that level yet, you still need to continue exploring. Being afraid of losses and doing nothing might be the biggest mistake.
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