ArkStream Alpha Daily | 06/24 Hotspot Selection 1. The situation in the Middle East is "cooling down," but risks are not cleared Despite the ceasefire framework announced by Israel, the U.S., and Iran, Iran's attacks on the U.S. military base in Qatar reveal that the conflict still has the potential to escalate. Currently, the U.S.-Iran-Israel situation has formed a "superficial balance": The U.S. fulfills its obligations to allies with symbolic airstrikes. Israel stabilizes its political situation and strengthens domestic control. Iran preemptively transfers key nuclear materials to gain a ceasefire window. However, at the same time, Iran attacked the U.S. military base in Qatar, exposing the essence of the situation as "ceasefire but not peace." Trump, despite claiming "complete and consistent peace," indicates that the events are more politically motivated. The market's short-term response is positive: crude oil fell by 15%, and gold corrected by 1%. But do not overlook the risk points: it is impossible to verify whether Iran's nuclear facilities have been destroyed, the suspected tacit cooperation in the U.S.-Iran "advance notice," and the unresolved structural geopolitical contradictions behind the ceasefire agreement. In the short term, it seems like a "win-win," but long-term uncertainty still needs to be monitored. 2. Payment giant Stripe, with a trading volume of $1.4T, is betting on stablecoins @stripe @starzqeth Stripe is not in a hurry to go public but has already heavily invested in stablecoins to seize the future payment landscape. In 2024, it will handle payment transactions worth $1.4 trillion. The global online payment market share reaches 17.15%. High penetration in the U.S. and European markets, with strong technological compatibility. 80% of the top 100 AI startups in a16z use Stripe. Invested $1.1 billion to acquire the stablecoin company Bridge. Sticking to a non-public route, focusing on profit and strategic flexibility. The trading volume of the stablecoin market reaches $15 trillion, but the proportion used for payments is relatively low. So, how big is the future of stablecoins? Stripe has already shown you the answer through its actions. 3. Celestia token has dropped over 90%, with OTC bad coins driving out good ones @celestia TIA is currently priced at $1.57, down from a peak of $21, a drop of over 90%. But the real drama is just beginning, as @0xCircusLover accuses: In October 2024, executives began unlocking chips at $6–8. Founder @musalbas Mustafa sold $25 million through OTC. At the same time, spending money on marketing, bringing in well-known KOLs like Bankless / Jon Charb / Andy to promote. Mustafa's response? "A halving in coin price is normal; our team still has $100 million, which can last for 6 years." In translation: the project won't run away, but the bag is self-aware. @RootDataCrypto also confirmed the OTC for Celestia in September 2024: valuation at $3.5 billion, selling 100 million TIA, which means buying at $3.5. Investment institutions include Bain, 1kx, Robot, etc. If they were strategic bulls at that time, they are now facing significant paper losses. Modularization was once the king of narratives. Now, Celestia has become a textbook case of "chronic selling + PR tactics." @theempirepod pointed out in a recent podcast that the OTC market is where bad coins drive out good ones, and pure bullish institutions may turn into the selling counterpart of projects with "more insider knowledge."