$SWC: Updated thoughts
The more I comprehend and model today’s announcement, the more undeniably bullish I am on $SWC. It’s honestly hard to overstate just how transformative this Subscription Agreement could be for the company.
One of the main pushbacks on $SWC’s strategy had been whether they could consistently raise capital at progressively higher prices, especially from institutional investors. This new mechanism removes a huge amount of pressure on that front. While I expect there will still be follow-on raises as institutional interest grows, the control, flexibility, and efficiency this structure provides is a total game-changer.
The 21m share Subscription Agreement gives me serious déjà vu of when Strategy ($MSTR) launched its 21/21 Plan in Q4 2024. They announced a $21B ATM equity program through 2027 — not only did the stock rise the next day (despite the dilution), they ended up using the full allocation within six months, then followed it with the even larger 42/42 Plan. $SWC is currently up 17% despite an implied 9.5% dilution (21m/220m shs outstanding).
Looking at where $SWC’s mNAV premium is today, and the opportunity for hugely accretive dilution (i.e. selling shares well above NAV to buy more Bitcoin and increase Bitcoin per Share), I genuinely believe they could place the entire 21m shares within a very quick time frame and I would not be surprised to see them reload this facility when complete (as MSTR did with the 42/42 plan). Note the daily volume cap of 20% shouldn't be a constraint given the recent uptick in liquidity on the London line.
I’m still working through the AQSE rules on whether there's a formal limit on share issuance (as a % of total outstanding) without a shareholder vote, but even if one were required, it’s reasonable to assume it would pass — the shareholder base is highly aligned and strategically motivated.
Bottom line: this is a massive unlock for $SWC. The ATM-like function enhances their ability to scale their Bitcoin treasury without the friction of traditional capital raises, and it aligns perfectly with the playbook used by the most successful public Bitcoin treasuries globally (Strategy and Metaplanet). It’s genuinely hard to quantify just how bullish this is.
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