#US10YearYieldBreaks5%

$BTC is facing a very different test this week. The Fed is expected to make its policy decision while oil prices have surged above $100 and Treasury yields have moved higher. That's not exactly the perfect environment for risk assets. And yet Bitcoin is still holding around the upper-$70K area. That's what I'm watching. Not whether someone predicts $80K or $70K. I want to see how BTC behaves when the macro environment becomes uncomfortable. If Bitcoin can absorb stronger yields, a stronger dollar and geopolitical pressure without completely losing its structure, that's meaningful. The reaction matters more than the headline. #US10YearYieldBreaks5% #RobinhoodTokenNewRights #US10YearYieldBreaks5%

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.01% on Sept 14, crossing 5% for the first time since Oct 2023 and reaching its highest intraday level since July 2007. It started the year near 4.15%. Nine months later, that is about +86bps. The pressure is not from one source: · Oil above $100 is keeping energy-driven inflation pressure alive · Headline CPI held at 3.4%, while core rose 0.3% MoM · Markets now price around 89%-90% odds of a 25bps Fed hike on Wednesday, the first hike since 2023 if delivered · Treasury supply remains heavy, while AI-driven corporate debt issuance is competing for capital · The NY Fed's ACM term premium model is back in positive territory, meaning investors are demanding extra return to hold long-duration paper · Markets are also pricing a possible BoJ hike to 1.25% this week, while the ECB remains hawkish The whole curve is repricing: 30-year yields are around 5.35%, while the 2-year sits near 4.66%. At 5% risk-free, the calculus shifts. Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage benchmark is at 6.76%. Equity models run with a higher discount rate. Corporate borrowing costs rise. Capital that once had to chase yield now has a simpler alternative. The interesting part is BTC. Around $77K-$78K today, it is roughly flat while equities fell. Gold also pulled back. That divergence is worth watching, but it still needs confirmation. The real event risk is not just the yield print. It is Wednesday's updated dot plot. June's median dot implied one hike for 2026. If September shows two, or if Chair Warsh signals higher-for-longer at the press conference, the 5% handle could get stickier. Is 5% a temporary pressure point for BTC, or the start of a new macro ceiling? #US10YearYieldBreaks5%

#SaudiOilPipelineDamaged Saudi Arabia's key oil pipeline struck September 10 — still offline, pump stations damaged, capacity out for weeks 🛢️💀 This isn't a minor disruption. The pipeline carries 2.6M-4.0M bpd and is the primary Hormuz bypass route for Red Sea crude. Yanbu port stocks cover only 5-7 days of exports. Up to 4% of global supply affected 📉 Then September 14: Houthi forces seized the Hanish Islands, raising shipping risk near Bab-el-Mandeb. Hormuz bypass damaged. Bab-el-Mandeb now threatened. Both major alternative routes under pressure simultaneously 👀 This is the energy supply shock scenario that was supposed to be the tail risk — and it's happening 🫠 Pipeline recovery timeline becomes the single most important variable for Saudi export capacity right now. Every week offline = more pressure on global crude pricing and inflation expectations 🔥 4% of global supply disrupted, both bypass routes compromised — how far does oil go from here, and does this force the Fed's hand on September rates? 👇

Crypto has a bigger problem than headlines right now: liquidity. Oil pushing higher, Treasury yields above 5%, and shifting Fed expectations are creating a tougher macro backdrop for risk assets. That makes the next crypto move more complicated. A bullish regulatory headline can lift sentiment, but sustained upside still needs supportive liquidity. I’m watching $BTC’s reaction to yields and oil because macro could overpower even strong crypto-specific catalysts. $BTC

#KCEXpressDaily 💭 The Sept 15-16 FOMC meeting just flipped from "maybe a hold" to "probably a hike." Polymarket and futures pricing now put the odds at 80-87%, with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan both revising forecasts to include it. Why: August core CPI came in hot, payrolls stayed resilient, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks leaned hawkish. Current fed funds range: 3.50-3.75%. Oil is adding fuel, literally. Brent is near $100/barrel, up ~20% since August, as US-Iran strikes disrupt Strait of Hormuz traffic — the route carrying ~1/5 of global oil supply. Diesel hit a record $5.85+/gallon. A hawkish Fed meeting a supply-driven energy shock at the same time isn't a coincidence risk markets can ignore — it's the exact combination that makes "transitory" arguments hardest to defend. 👀 #FOMC #Fed #Oil #Macro #KCEXpressDaily

BREAKING: US stocks slide as the 10-year Treasury yield hits 5% for the first time since 2023 and oil surges, with the Nasdaq down 1% as AI names lead the sell-off.

5% just became crypto’s most expensive number. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% for the first time since October 2023, while Brent trades near $107 and markets lean heavily toward a Fed hike Wednesday. When “risk-free” money pays 5%, capital has to fight harder for every dollar. Crypto’s next battle may be happening in the bond market, not on-chain. Image suggestion — separate: U.S. Treasury/bond-yield chart showing the 10-year crossing 5%, from today’s coverage #FOMCRateCallThisWeek

The 10-year Treasury yield rises to its highest since 2007 as Fed rate-hike expectations increase.

The 10-year Treasury yield just climbed to its highest level since 2007 - CNBC