Today’s market buzz

US June PCE fell 0.1% month over month, its first negative monthly print since 2020, with the annual rate easing from 4.1% to 3.7% and core PCE at 3.3%, in line with expectations. Same day, advance Q2 GDP grew 1.5% annualized versus 2.1% expected, yet real final sales to private domestic buyers rose 3.9%, the highest since early 2023. Cooling inflation eases hike urgency while strong demand backs the hawks. The ~63% September hike odds now face a reset. July data settles trend versus oil blip.