Orbit Post Sitemap
The Federal Reserve did not cut interest rates; surprisingly, there were two votes in favor of a rate hike! What should FIL and DOGE watch out for?
On October 28, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.75%–4.00%, passing the decision with a 10 to 2 vote. The two dissenters did not call for a rate cut but advocated for a 25 basis point increase.
I believe this is the detail that altcoins need to be wary of. The statement noted that U.S. economic activity remains strong and employment is generally stable, but inflation is still elevated. "Maintaining the rate" should not be directly interpreted as "imminent easing," nor does it mean altcoins are about to take off.
Next, I will focus on three signals:
① Whether U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar continue to strengthen, affecting market risk appetite;
② Whether BTC can maintain its trend after the news settles, rather than just a brief spike;
③ Whether FIL and DOGE show sustained trading volume and capital support during their rise.
There is also a distinction that must be made clear: two votes supporting a rate hike do not mean the next meeting will definitely raise rates; an unchanged policy rate does not mean liquidity remains completely unchanged.
The Fed's schedule shows that the minutes of this meeting will be released on November 18, and the next rate meeting is scheduled for December 8–9. My strategy is to guess less about news and focus more on capital verification.
Do you think FIL and DOGE need a rate cut or new capital the most for their next rally?
#BTC #FIL #DOGE #FOMC
Not investment advice.Firedancer collects vulnerability reports, now requiring burning 1 SOL upfront, regardless of whether the report is useful or not, this 1 SOL is non-refundable. The rules were updated on October 26, triggered by an audit competition held this spring.
The competition ran from April 9 to May 9, with a prize pool of 1 million USD. 162 researchers submitted 809 reports, averaging 5 reports per person. Jump judged that almost every report involved AI. Only 127 independent findings were considered valid, about half of which were duplicates, and the audit backlog peaked at 299 reports. If this rule had been applied then, burning 809 SOL for 809 reports would have cost about 80,000 USD.
The competition did uncover serious issues, including a scheduling vulnerability that could alter the transaction execution order, causing consensus divergence among validator nodes. Someone at Jump wrote that AI makes finding vulnerabilities cheap, but verifying the correctness of a report remains expensive.
In the previous competition, each report cost 100 USD, and a person could submit only one report per day. Now it’s changed to burning tokens; at 100 USD per token, the threshold is basically unchanged, but token price fluctuations will affect the threshold accordingly. The highest reward for a serious vulnerability related to Alpenglow is 300,000 USD. Burned SOL is permanently removed from circulation, but even with many reports, it has basically no impact on the total supply. $SOL The outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting on October 28 was leaked in advance: a 90% probability of maintaining the 3.75%–4.00% rate unchanged, and the result was exactly as predicted. DOGE applauded along—bouncing from 0.078 to 0.080, then retracting to 0.0797 as the applause faded. My assessment: this is not a reaction, but a courtesy.
Whether holding steady counts as good news depends on whether there was a surprise. This meeting had no surprises and was actually a "hawkish enhanced version": the dissenting votes were from those who thought it wasn’t hawkish enough, the economic description was upgraded from "solid" to "strong," and the probability of a rate hike in December was 70-80%—translated into plain language, it’s not that there won’t be a hike, just that there won’t be one this time. A meeting whose script can be recited verbatim cannot provide the surprises needed for good news.
What’s more interesting is DOGE’s composure. After dropping nearly 90% from its peak, the chips scared off by the rate hike have long fled, leaving holders who watch Bitcoin’s mood, community enthusiasm, and ecosystem progress. No matter how loud the Fed’s voice is, it only registers as white noise in this dog’s ears—the marginal effect of macro narratives diminishes like this.
So the real information from this event is not what was said in Washington, but what $DOGE did not do. Going forward, what’s worth watching is whether inflation data will throw out lines beyond the script, and the activity on the dog’s own chain. ETF has seen inflows for two consecutive days, but the $11 billion options expiry tomorrow looms large, with the biggest pain point directly targeting $78,000. Slow money supporting the bottom struggles against fast-paced battles; the options gravity during the expiry week is the main driver.
$BTC 79,897.2. IBIT attracted $151 million in a single day, indicating demand is indeed recovering. However, with expiry imminent, about 70% of Gamma is concentrated between 75,000 and 82,000, with the biggest pain point at 78,000 acting like a magnet for price. ETF support and options battles make it difficult to find direction before the $80,000 level is settled.
$ETH 2,308.1. BlackRock saw an outflow of $93.3 million, while Fidelity launched staking, causing capital divergence. Although chips have been absorbed, the $776 million options expiry is approaching, with the biggest pain point far above 2,500, so the current price can only passively bear the pressure.
$SOL 99.79. ETF has lost funds for three consecutive days, and $100 has shifted from support to resistance. Due to its high beta nature, the expiry week is prone to triggering liquidations, making its short-term situation the most fragile.
Summary
ETF inflows act as a slow remedy, while options expiry is a fast blade. The 78,000 pain point is imminent, and the probability of a double-sided kill this week is greater than a trend start. Wait for the expiry to settle; the true direction will only be seen next week.
#ETF连续回流，BTC迎110亿美元期权交割 Seeing the Sony brand, my heart skipped a beat 😰. The more news there is about big companies entering the space, the more I fear mistaking "expectation" for "certainty." Spare money shouldn't be treated as money that won't lose.
Sony announced the launch of a global on-chain entertainment incubation program, supporting creators and startups to develop products and services based on Soneium, providing technical, marketing, and financing support. Previously, two rounds have supported 43 projects. The new program application period is from October to December 2026, with selection expected to continue until March 2027.
I think this is good news for developers, but it shouldn't be taken directly as a market signal. The supporting resources can help teams lower the entry barrier, but that doesn't mean the products will definitely have users; the selection process still takes time, and the actual implementation results need verification. If attention runs ahead of the products, I worry the gap in expectations will amplify volatility. I won't chase hype just because of a big company's name; I'll stick to my spare money budget and slowly see if the products can retain users.$ETH is shouted every day to have its Ether exchange rate drop to zero.
But ETH against BTC stubbornly held at 0.02915, a low point even higher than the 2019 cycle.
Bears recently simply can't break through this level, and whenever BTC consolidates a bit, the exchange rate pulls up.
When the square was cursing the loudest, the market had actually long stopped being able to push it down.
#ETH
$ETH
👇📉 In-depth Analysis of ZEC: Massive Capital Withdrawal, Is the Curse of Long Consolidation Leading to a Drop About to Come True?
At 2:30 PM, the ZEC market remains stagnant. But if you only look at the price, it's easy to be fooled by the main players' "boiling the frog slowly" tactic. Combining the just-updated latest on-chain data, beneath this stagnant surface, there are extremely turbulent undercurrents. Here's a breakdown of the latest market logic along with some operational suggestions.
---
📊 1. Latest Data Hardcore Analysis
1. Macro Hawkish Bias: Although the FOMC did not raise rates last night, there was a "hawkish split" with 2 votes calling for a rate hike, significantly reducing market expectations for a rate cut in December. Risk assets are generally under pressure, and Bitcoin (BTC) is also shaky around 81,000.
2. ZEC Fundamentals Are "Conflicted": The Zcash spot ETF (ZCSH) still saw net inflows yesterday (over $2 million), with institutions buying on dips; however, the futures market faced heavy whale sell-offs, with some closing long positions and even opening $1.38 million in shorts. Long-term institutions are accumulating, while short-term speculators are dumping, so short-term moves should follow the direction of the speculators' sell-offs.
Long consolidation leads to a drop, with a 70% probability of a second bottom test.
Capital withdrawal plus breaking below the consolidation zone is a very typical "downtrend continuation." Once the US stock market opens tonight and Bitcoin falls below 80,000, ZEC is highly likely to test the morning low of 1230, possibly even dipping to around 1220.
Market data and technical analysis are for learning and reference only and do not constitute investment advice.【RWA Two Sides in One Day: Tokenized Government Bonds Surge One Day, Tokenized Money Market Funds Shrink the Next】
On October 28, Theo Network's thBill (tokenized government bond product) TVL rose by 21.1%; on October 29, Sygnum Bank's FIUSD liquidity fund (tokenized money market fund) TVL dropped by 16.4% to $15.3 million. These opposite movements perfectly cooled down the heated RWA narrative by half a degree.
The essence of tokenized funds is securities accounts packaged on-chain, backed by real subscriptions and redemptions. When institutions rebalance between cash management (money market funds) and yield assets (government bonds, notes), the numbers fluctuate in both directions—just like traditional money market funds experience large daily subscriptions and redemptions, but without daily on-chain leaderboards to observe. Interpreting single-day TVL as a "sector trend" is like mistaking a thermometer for the climate.
To judge the true state of RWA products, look at two slow variables: whether the underlying asset scale is continuously growing (how many government bonds or certificates of deposit the issuer actually bought, which determines the product's real size), and the number and structure of holders (allocation funds hold long-term, arbitrage funds move in and out with spreads). Both variables growing in the same direction indicates real sector expansion; if only TVL numbers move, it is mostly funds shifting between similar products.
Beyond short-term leaderboard noise, the structural trend of RWA remains worth tracking: Eurozone banks just admitted in an official survey that retail deposits are flowing into crypto assets, and tokenized money market funds are one product form that captures this demand. When funds enter or exit on a given day is noise; why funds move in or out is the signal.📊 $PUMP Chip Movement: Signs of Major Accumulation Worth Watching!
In the past two days, the $PUMP chip structure has changed, with large funds seemingly gradually positioning at low levels. Although the price has fallen about 36% from the 90-day high, there has been no obvious strong rally during the decline, indicating that market chips may still be redistributing.
If today's gains can hold steady, the subsequent pullback range is expected to narrow further. The short-term structure is temporarily bullish, but the so-called "major accumulation" still needs to be verified with trading volume, position changes, and capital flow.
Key observations: Whether the proportion of large funds can continue to increase, and whether the price can stabilize and rebound with volume support. Don't just focus on the decline; chip changes are equally important, but don't treat speculation as a certainty.
Additional info: According to reports, Pump.fun continues to advance the PUMP buyback and burn mechanism, but recent platform revenue and buyback scale have declined; meanwhile, news of whale purchases and large transfers into exchanges coexist, showing divergent capital movements.
Therefore, short-term cautious optimism is reasonable, but whether strength can be sustained depends on buyback intensity, trading volume, and overall SOL trend.The ETF funds have all returned, so why is $BTC falling instead of rising?
Although the trading volume has increased to $391 million, it's clearly just a turnover of funds, so the price can't go up and can only show a pattern of volume increase with price stagnation.
Moreover, the bulls' pain points are quite close; there are still two tall bars at 79,115 and 82,547, so the market will definitely have sharp spikes up and down to trigger liquidations and collect profits. 82,500 might be close to MA30 and hard to break through, but 79,000 is the lower boundary of the 30-day consolidation, so it's easier to touch.
This week, $XRP's performance is actually good. The spot ETF attracted 11.31 million against the trend, and Standard Chartered even said: XRP ETF could see nearly 5 billion in net inflows. XRP's advantage is regulatory certainty, making it a safe haven chosen by institutions.
Also, $UNI, relying on its leading position, has created a new play. In the cumulative trading volume of global tokenized stocks, $2 billion has already been routed through partners like Uniswap. Today it surged with volume, breaking above MA7 (7.029), and next is to adjust around MA20 (7.244)."General operating funds," these few words woke me up: Bitcoin in market groups is like the vast starry sea, but in the company's finance department, it has to face the soul-searching question of "can it be used to pay the utility bills." Ruihe Digital Intelligence sold 38.76 bitcoins, and the proceeds are intended for general operations. 😂
My judgment: this looks more like a corporate cash management message, and interpreting it directly as bearish on $BTC lacks sufficient evidence. Operations need cash, but holding coins means bearing price volatility; the two have different use cases. The announcement gave the purpose but did not disclose what proportion of holdings this sale represents, so you can't automatically translate "sold some" into "full retreat." I'm more concerned about how the company balances holding coins and daily cash needs rather than adding bullish or bearish commentary to a single sale.
Where do you stand: is this a normal fund allocation, or a signal of weakened willingness to hold coins? Does the finance department this time count as opening a utility bill for "faith"?More than the "AI discovering vulnerabilities," I am more concerned that the affected nodes are Bitcoin nodes on Windows and Mac: the decentralized foundation still relies on individual computers to support it. My judgment is that this news has more practical significance for node operators than for the narrative around the coin price.
According to CoinDesk, language models scanning found three vulnerabilities that can cause node crashes on these two types of systems, which have been disclosed according to Core's new rules for easily discoverable vulnerabilities. I would not directly translate "node crash" as "$BTC is insecure": interruption of operation, asset theft, and total network failure are issues of different levels, and the material does not provide evidence for the latter two.
But it should not be dismissed as a minor issue just because coin loss is not mentioned. Nodes undertake validation work, and availability is inherently part of security. My speculation is that if the vulnerabilities are easily triggered, the related operators may bear more costs for troubleshooting and maintenance; decentralization is not just a slogan, it also has daily maintenance bills.
When I see this kind of news, I fear being misled by eye-catching headlines. Next, I will focus on the scope of impact, triggering conditions, and repair information, and will not interpret "already disclosed" as "already resolved" on my own.Bitcoin is slightly weak in the short term, and rebounds are more easily sold off, so don't rush to mistake a pullback for a reversal. Ethereum is just consolidating in the short term; there is buying support, but the price hasn't stabilized, so it's not advisable to chase the rally. If you find this analysis helpful, remember to follow and like; your support is my greatest motivation to keep updating. Bitcoin's low in the past 12 hours was 79,709.50, and the high was 81,797.50. The most striking thing about BTC is that despite strong bullish sentiment, trading volume is skewed towards selling, and the price has slipped to the lower edge of the recent range. Public bullishness hasn't translated into buying pressure; selling actions like reducing longs, switching from long to short, and adding shorts outweigh buying. Does a large number of bulls mean a bottom? No, the price has already voted with a pullback. Sticking to the lower edge, if the rebound can't reach the middle of the range, it is still likely to be sold; to truly stop the decline, we need to see sellers withdraw and buyers step in. If sellers continue to press, the rebound will only give them better positions. No matter how loud the bullish voices are, they can't be mistaken for buying pressure. Ethereum's low in the past 12 hours was 2,293.93, and the high was 2,391.94. ETH lacks comparable public opinions; buying volume exceeds selling, which is the opposite of BTC's selling pressure. There are buyers willing to step in below, but the price has fallen back from the upper edge of the range and is now near the lower edge; buying hasn't lifted the price yet. Does having buyers mean stability? Not yet, the price hasn't held; buyers just haven't retreated. Next, watch if it can hold the lower edge and return to the middle of the range; if it just moves sideways without rising, it's consolidation and repair, not a reversal. If the lower edge is broken, the support needs to be reassessed. Watch whether BTC sellers can withdraw and whether ETH can hold the lower edge; if sellers don't retreat and the lower..."Bad news doesn't cause a drop; the shorts get 'worn down' first" (￣▽￣)
The Fed didn't move this time, but the shorts acted like they heard the starting gun and rushed to add shorts. After 24 hours, liquidations reached $259 million: $156 million in shorts, $103 million in longs; BTC shorts liquidated $43.33 million, ETH shorts liquidated $33.6 million. Yet BTC only rose 0.5%, ETH touched 2350 without a violent surge, and the shorts were slowly worn down by the volatility (╯﹏╰).
The most painful logic is: all the bad news is out, but it doesn't fall; the Fed leans hawkish, but it doesn't crash; high-leverage shorts wait for a crash, but what comes is their margin being eaten away bit by bit. The probability of a rate hike in December is 82.6%, the macro outlook looks bearish, but short-term shorts are being pressed and rubbed down (¬_¬). This market cures the "I think it should fall" mindset.
Are you still holding shorts? Are you going to tough it out, or get worn down by this slow knife market? Share your thoughts in the comments.
The above is compiled from on-chain data and does not constitute trading advice.
$BTC $ETH
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 I saw $NEAR on the gainers list this morning, up just 0.4% in 24 hours, hardly enough to call it a spike—now it's back on the losers list, down 4.49%, dropping 4 points.
Tossing and turning all day, pure capital flipping back and forth.
If you talk about a real story for NEAR, it's not nonexistent—an established public chain project, with some AI narrative touched on, but this wave has nothing to do with that, it's just the rankings switching sides. Down 10 points on the seven-day chart, with volume about the same as usual, 0.9 times, no one is really dumping, and no one is really buying.
A reminder: it has more than doubled from the bottom in the past six months, still halfway up the mountain. Don’t get itchy just because it "rose many times," the halfway point is the most unstable when it falls. $NEAR $CORE is a 'public chain' with a TVL of 3.82 million and a daily transaction volume of 900 USD, ranked in the top 200 by market capitalization.
A set of data with a strong sense of disconnection is presented: the circulating market cap still firmly ranks within the top 200 cryptocurrencies, but the native DeFi locked assets on the Core chain have shrunk to 3.82 million USD, and the on-chain DEX daily transaction volume is only 900 USD. This huge contrast is the most realistic portrait of CORE today. Many people confuse two layers of data: the BTC staking assets supporting the market cap narrative, and the Core chain's DeFi funds, which are completely separate systems. The BTC used to support the BTCFi story is locked in the Bitcoin mainnet through CLTV time locks to participate in consensus staking; these assets have not entered Core chain DeFi contracts. The 3.82 million TVL and 900 USD daily transaction volume represent the true activity level of the Core chain's internal DeFi ecosystem. This data exposes the core contradiction: the token still maintains a decent market cap ranking, but the on-chain application layer funds have almost completely fled, causing huge slippage and liquidity exhaustion. Ordinary users are unwilling to conduct trading or lending activities on the Core chain, on-chain fee income is nearly depleted, and the foundation's envisioned value flywheel of fee buybacks for the token is difficult to realize❌. However, it cannot be directly concluded that the project is completely worthless: the BTC staking narrative at the Satoshi Plus consensus layer still exists, and institutional BTC yield products are still advancing. Relying solely on consensus layer staking data to support market cap while the on-chain DeFi ecosystem is in shock is itself a very high-risk signal. This is compounded by the continuous withdrawal of independent validators.Capital inflow ≠ reversal, first look at structural differentiation
Today's capital inflow is worth noting but not enough to confirm a reversal. Short-term warming runs parallel with mid-term deleveraging; the market seems more like it's repairing rather than fully turning around.
🔸$BTC currently has the most stable structure. Both spot and futures show synchronized net inflows: $63.39 million spot inflow and $9.02 million futures inflow over 4 hours, reaching $229 million and $139 million respectively over 24 hours. However, over 30 days, spot still has a net outflow of $724 million and futures a net outflow of $6.63 billion, indicating short-term capital return but mid-term leverage clearing is not yet complete.
🔸$ETH clearly relies on leverage replenishment. Spot shows a slight outflow of $1.52 million over 4 hours, while futures have an inflow of $39.74 million; over 24 hours, futures inflow is $228 million, stronger than spot's $32.01 million. This structure has high short-term elasticity but also the highest leverage dependence, so if replenishment slows, volatility risk will increase.
🔸$SOL shows a different strength and weakness: spot is supported while futures are still withdrawing. Over 24 hours, spot net inflow is $39.02 million, futures net outflow is $27.9 million; over 30 days, futures have a cumulative net outflow of $1.83 billion. Some are taking positions, but leverage funds have not yet returned.
Overall, BTC has the best structure, SOL has spot support, ETH has the strongest short-term elasticity but the highest leverage risk. Capital inflow is only the first step; reversal requires mid-term outflow contraction to confirm.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $ZEC was right to be bullish yesterday, the mistake was chasing the highs! Today, holding steady at 1240 actually makes it more stable.
Yesterday, ZEC strongly broke through 1300 driven by Grayscale ETF fund inflows and macroeconomic positives, reaching up to 1332. However, due to selling pressure from trapped positions above 1368 and internal disputes among project leaders causing uncertainty, the main force followed the trend to dump and wash out positions, pulling back to around 1248. This sharp drop is essentially a technical correction after the positive news was priced in, aimed at clearing out floating chips.
Currently, only 29% of positions are profitable, meaning 70% of chips are trapped, with an average cost near 1274. Below 1240 is a dense support zone of profitable chips and the last defense line for bulls. As long as 1240 can hold effectively today, it indicates strong support below, signaling the washout is nearing its end and bullish rebound bets can continue. The first short-term target is 1280, and the second target is the 1300 round number.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $ZEC vs $SOL
Shorts are sitting comfortably on both, but I'm seeing two different setups.
SOL still looks weak. Sellers have the upper hand, and I don't see much reason to fight them yet.
ZEC is more interesting. Buyers are starting to show up while shorts remain heavily positioned. If that buying continues, we could get a decent squeeze.
I'd rather watch ZEC for a bounce than try catching the bottom on SOL.A guy on Bitcointalk drew this in Excel in 2013 when bitcoin was $25. He never touched it again. It’s still 100% right ,let's see what it predicts... On the 13th Feb 2013 a user called dacoinminster dumps whatever price history he can find into a spreadsheet, lets Excel fit a power trendline, and writes it down: Price = 4.42 × 10⁻¹⁷ × (days since Jan 3, 2009)^5.6 He wasn’t building a theory of money. He was arguing 2011 had been the bubble and 2013 wasn’t. The line said about $27 that week. Pric#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Brothers, the liquidation data chart is here!!
From last night to this morning's market, honestly, it was a liquidation of shorts followed by longs
$BTC in the early morning first exploded the shorts, at 4:57 AM in that hour shorts liquidated 50.57 million, BTC touched 81442, looked like it was going to break through, many chased in, but it turned out to be a fake breakout, everyone got trapped!!
Then in the morning, two sharp hits at 9 and 10 o'clock, a smooth drop, longs liquidated 148 million, price directly smashed down to 79887, the group chat was full of curses……
I added up the hourly data, from midnight to noon total liquidations reached 274 million, longs accounted for nearly 70%. BTC open interest also shrank from 47 billion to 46.4 billion, funding rates dropped, positions clearly lighter.
The current situation is shorts taking profits, longs liquidating, and it's time for a new round of game theory #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 #微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 $ETH $ZEC Simply not raising interest rates can only bring a small increase because the market will not pay for what has already happened. It only pays for what is going to happen, so last night the main focus was on the Fed's speech tone.
This recent drop was clearly aimed at triggering the short positions at 79919; after triggering, the price bounced back.
Actually, BTC's trading volume also gave a signal: yesterday the volume rose 50% to $391 million, but the price only increased by 0.44%. It was just a turnover with no new capital inflow.
$ETH is dreadful. It broke below MA7 (2345), moving further away from MA20 (2417), MA30 (2490), and MA60 (2521), but getting closer to the 30-day bottom price of 2282.
@八佰哥爱理财 Still optimistic for the long term. The low position is an opportunity to enter. Slowly build your position and wait for the opportunity.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $BTC now, for me, is no longer about whether BTC can hold the so-called 78000 level. What I am focusing on now is whether the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates tomorrow. We all know that in recent years there has been a pattern called the yen carry trade, where some capital borrows yen from Japan at almost no interest, then converts it to dollars to buy US stocks and crypto assets. But if the yen interest rate rises, these capital holders will need to sell their US stocks and crypto to buy yen in Japan to repay their debts. So, the key focus next is whether the Bank of Japan will raise rates tomorrow. If they do, it will be a devastating blow to the entire capital market. Judging by today's drop, it seems some people already knew the result in advance. Therefore, at such a critical moment, we should try to stay out of positions and wait.ETF just bought $176 million, but BTC fell back below 80,000 — it's not that institutions stopped buying, it's that the hawkish Fed suppressed the buying pressure.
$BTC: $80,049. On the 28th, spot ETF net inflow was $176 million, with BlackRock IBIT alone accounting for $151 million. However, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, two voting members advocated for a rate hike, the probability of a December hike remains at 78.4%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly returned above 5%, putting pressure on risk assets. The 80,000 level was repeatedly breached, with 79,000 as the last short-term defense line.
$ETH: $2,314. In October, ETFs saw a cumulative outflow exceeding $1.26 billion, staking yields are below the risk-free rate, and institutional allocation willingness continues to weaken. Below $2,286, there is $676 million in long liquidation risk; breaking below will accelerate deleveraging.
$SOL: $100.08. October SOL ETF net outflow was $99.62 million, marking the worst monthly performance since listing. $100 is a key neckline; daily close below it confirms a head and shoulders pattern, targeting $80.
Summary: ETF buying is localized support, not a trend reversal. In a hawkish rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding crypto assets continues to rise. If 80,000 and $100 cannot hold, it will be the starting point for the next round of liquidations.
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 BTC
Yesterday the Federal Reserve held steady, no rate cut benefits, the market was directly hammered, bottoming at 79,800, now hovering around the 80,000 mark.
Tomorrow $11 billion in options expire, most chips are stuck between 75,000-82,000, short-term volatility is inevitable.
The weekly chart has been falling continuously, the overall trend is still weak, don't rush to bottom fish, wait until it stabilizes above 82,000 before talking about a reversal.
ETH
Weaker than BTC, now grinding around 2,300. ETF has seen net outflows for four consecutive weeks, institutions are continuously withdrawing.
Although there is news of a joint venture joining Ethlabs, the market has no reaction, funds are simply not buying it.
Technically, recent support has been broken, basically following the overall market, it's hard to have an independent rally.
SOL
Holding around $100, relatively resistant among altcoins. Today is the October ecosystem conference call, the market is waiting for any new developments.
The downside is ETF has had outflows for three consecutive weeks, putting pressure on funds. Fortunately, the Breakpoint conference at the end of the month is expected to support it, so it hasn't collapsed yet.
It depends on whether $100 can hold; if it doesn't, it will have to look for support lower.
ZEC
Current price around 1,260, down 3% with the market. But on November 5, the NU7 mainnet upgrade will triple block production speed.
Usually there is speculative money before upgrades, so a drop might be a good opportunity to pay more attention. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $BTC $ETH $SOL At 2 a.m. Beijing time on October 29, the Federal Reserve voted 10 to 2 to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75% to 4%. Two officials dissented, advocating for an immediate rate hike. The meeting statement changed the economy description from "solid" to "strong," and also said inflation remains high. Waller's remarks were more direct, saying financial conditions have tightened but are not tight enough. In short, not raising rates is not a dovish turn, just a delay in hiking.
Before the decision, $BTC surged as many thought no rate hike was good news and rushed to buy. After Waller spoke, the "pause" was effectively described as a "reprieve," with the probability of a December rate hike rising from about 78% to about 85%. The price then plummeted. In 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $157 million, with $109 million liquidated from long positions. The rally was driven by temporary sentiment, the plunge by harsher reality; once sentiment faded, reality regained dominance.
Moreover, pressure on BTC is not just from the Fed. Last Thursday, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day outflow of $636 million, and the Nasdaq fell 2.6%. Brent crude oil rose above $116; with oil prices not falling, inflation is hard to truly cool down, making a December rate hike no longer a low probability.
80k is a psychological support line; if broken, the next stop is 78k, then 77k. In the short term, BTC will likely continue to consolidate around 80k. The future direction depends on whether oil prices can be contained and whether the December rate hike expectation turns into reality.
Pausing rate hikes is not entirely positive; it's safer to treat it as postponing the problem.The rebound looks encouraging, but the quality of the buying matters more than the price recovery itself.
BTC ETF inflows of $110M show institutional demand is still present, while ETH’s $88.58M in outflows highlights a clear difference in capital flows. Meanwhile, $149M in liquidations, mostly from shorts, suggests forced buying helped accelerate the move.
For BTC, reclaiming $81.3K with stronger spot demand would make the recovery more convincing. *Federal Reserve October 28 = Spoiler alert, $DOGE too lazy to applaud 🐶*
Result? 90% probability to keep 3.75%-4.00% unchanged, not a word off.
$DOGE reaction:
$0.078 → $0.080 → $0.0797
This is not a rebound, it's a polite applause, the applause was withdrawn before it even ended.
Why no rise?
This is a hawkish enhanced version of holding steady:
Opposition votes = not hawkish enough
Economic tone: steady → strong
December rate hike probability 70-80%
Translation: not no hike, just no hike this time
$DOGE has dropped 90% from the peak, those scared off by rates have already fled early
Now only watching three things: Bitcoin's mood + community heat + ecosystem progress
No matter how loud the Fed is, it only sounds like white noise to the dog's ears
Core signal: $DOGE no reaction precisely means it has become desensitized to macro
Stop staring at Washington, focus on inflation data + on-chain activity
#DOGE The biggest news in November: How Trump manages to secure votes in the Senate and House despite the deadlock
The market expectation is already set that the Republican Party will definitely lose both chambers.
If the Democrats take over, they can block Trump's legislation and impeach investigations against him.
The market sentiment now is that the Republicans will lose and Bitcoin will crash.
Currently, the overall trend for Bitcoin looks bearish, and the Nasdaq also looks bearish.
However, Bitcoin hasn't dropped yet, and neither has the Nasdaq; funds are still in a wait-and-see mode.
The good news is that prices can temporarily hold steady now, and there is no crash yet.
The bad news is that if the outlook worsens near November 3rd or 4th, there will be concentrated sell-offs leading to panic declines.
Generally, there are three scenarios. The House needs 218 votes, and the Senate needs 51 votes:
1. Best case scenario
House > 218 + Senate > 50
A sweep of both chambers, Trump's policies can proceed normally, and Bitcoin and US stocks will rebound strongly.
2. Split chambers
Hold the Senate, lose the House
Legislation will be difficult to advance. This is the toughest market scenario. The main trend will first fall, and whether it can rebound depends on how Trump handles it.
3. Total loss
House < 218 + Senate < 50
Democrats will investigate, impeach, block budgets, and stall policies. Risk-off sentiment will peak, Bitcoin will crash hard, and US stocks will also plummet.
Generally, in midterm elections, there will definitely be risk-off sentiment. Shorting first is reasonable. Bitcoin is at 80,000 with some rebound and upward shorting opportunities. When it rebounds further, short again—same old strategy.
82,200-83,000 can be light short positions.
84,000 can be normal short positions.
Above 85,000, decisively short.
After the midterm elections end, expect a bull market starting next year. In the few dozen days after the midterms, Bitcoin will significantly rally and rebound. Starting from this year's Spring Festival period, gradually buy more on dips and buy on pullbacks.The market situation is very interesting. The overall market did not experience a major drop; instead, a large number of short positions were squeezed out. Even the Federal Reserve's decision couldn't help the shorts.
Last night, the Fed announced it would keep interest rates unchanged. Many traders saw this as bearish news and decisively entered short positions.
But reality surprised many.
In the past 24 hours, the total liquidations across the network reached $259 million, with short liquidations amounting to $156 million and long liquidations only $103 million.
Breaking it down, BTC short liquidations were $43.33 million, ETH short liquidations were $33.6 million.
BTC only rose slightly by 0.5%, and ETH just tested the 2350 level. There was neither a big bullish candle nor a violent pump; shorts were slowly worn down in a calm consolidation.
This is the most frustrating aspect of the current market:
You predict the bearish news has been fully priced in and the market should go down, but it just moves sideways;
You see the Fed's hawkish stance and are sure the market will crash, but it slowly consolidates and rises.
Many people opened high-leverage short positions waiting for a crash, but the market neither fell nor exploded, slowly grinding down margin like boiling a frog in warm water.
Ironically, the market now prices in an 82.6% chance of a rate hike in December. The macro conditions are fully bearish, yet short sellers continue to face pressure in the short term.
This market specifically punishes traders who subjectively predict "it should go down."
Are you still holding your positions stubbornly, or have you been washed out by this grinding market? Feel free to discuss in the comments.
$ETH $BTC It is said that after Google's earnings report day, the stock drops more than 8%, and continues to fall the next day, but on non-earnings days, the drop rebounds!
$GOOGL #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 $HYPE, does having an ETF product not equate to sustained institutional buying? As of October 28, the spot HYPE ETF had no net inflow on a single day, with a net outflow of about $43.1 million over the past 30 days; cumulative net inflow remains positive. Short-term capital withdrawal and long-term product retention can occur simultaneously. If average daily trading, fees, and holding demand remain steady and ETF flows turn positive, the fundamentals are more convincing; if the product continues to see outflows and trading heat cools down, the premium needs to be reassessed.$GOOGL drops 9.5% after its Q3 earnings miss, and the reaction goes beyond the headline numbers.
Alphabet is spending heavily to secure its position in the AI race, with $51.4B in AI spending and free cash flow turning negative at $9.1B.
Investors are now questioning how quickly these investments can translate into stronger earnings and cash generation.
#GoogleQ3MixedResults INIT rose 21% today.
But its mainnet is still down.
⚠️ What happened
On October 23, Initia was attacked.
A vulnerability allowed attackers to mint coins without permission.
About $2.7 million was reportedly taken.
The team immediately suspended the mainnet.
🩹 Turning point on October 28
The foundation approved funding to cover the iUSD shortfall.
The 1:1 backing will be restored when the chain recovers.
Note: This is an "approval," not a "transfer received."
The amount is pending verification, and the transfer awaits approval.
📈 How the price moved
On October 28, the daily high was 0.2579.
Trading volume was $21.1 million.
The 30-day daily average was $2.75 million, an eightfold increase.
It rose 334% over 90 days.
🧮 Structural details easy to overlook
Circulating supply is 211 million tokens, total supply 1 billion tokens.
Only 21% released.
Market cap is $45.2 million.
Fully diluted is 214 million, 4.7 times the market cap.
Small market cap means it pumps fast and dumps fast.
🤔 My interpretation
Timing-wise, the compensation matches this price surge.
But correlation does not equal causation.
A simpler explanation is that the circulating supply is too low.
The mainnet is down, on-chain data is zero.
Fundamentals cannot be verified now.
Data sources: Initia official announcement, CoinGecko
$INIT $BEAT second pump? The possibility is quite high.
I haven't changed my overall bearish view on Audition.
The project team has been continuously selling from the same address, clearly controlling the market to pull back, but looking at the long-short positions ratio across the network, the shorts have the upper hand. This means the manipulator is very likely to violently pump the price a second time and then quickly dump it, causing a double kill on both longs and shorts.
Whether it can break the previous high this time is still unknown. With a high level of forced liquidation, holding a short position steadily is not a problem. Those seeking stability and doubling can take a wave first; the chance of a second pump is very high.
#霍尔木兹重开方案浮现，油价回落能否持续？ $SHIB
SHIB's open interest in contracts has dropped to $37.3 million, falling far short of the $50 million benchmark traders consider healthy.
The trading structure is even more interesting: according to breaking news, 24-hour futures volume is $49.3 million, while spot volume is only $10.8 million. More than four times the leverage is betting on a coin that no one is buying in the spot market, with about $20 million in positions liquidated in between.
I checked OKX, SHIB's current price is 0.000004875, down 2% in 24 hours, with contract open interest at 6.7 million. The fee rate hasn't turned negative yet, and shorts haven't gained an advantage; it's purely a leverage retreat.
This is how meme liquidity works: when the market comes, leverage piles up; when the market leaves, leverage is cut first. SHIB is now a scene with no takers. Let's talk about a second wave when spot trading volume returns first.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 For crypto, this creates a liquidity problem. Without clearer signals of monetary easing, speculative capital has less incentive to rotate aggressively into riskier assets.
That helps explain why an expected decision can produce a brief price reaction without establishing a lasting trend.
The next phase may be less about the headline rate and more about the path markets begin pricing in for the months ahead.
#FedKeepsRatesUnchanged $SOL
A couple of days ago, I wrote in a post that if SOL 100 doesn't break, I won't short. Tonight it broke, I admit this trade.
Just pulled some data, current price 100.1, 24-hour low 99.26. The trigger is easy to guess: a whale sold 1.02 million SOL over five days, $104 million, averaging 20 million per day flowing out.
What's interesting is the market reaction. Fees are almost zero, open interest is still over 3.2 billion, not a single contract less. Spot is dumping, but no one is running on the contracts, bulls are still holding positions waiting for a rebound. This kind of structure fears slow grinding the most; if it stays sideways for a few days without a rebound, leverage will withdraw first.
I admit defeat at the 100 level. But whales never dump all in one day; I'd rather wait for a rebound confirmation before acting. Chasing shorts or bottom fishing at this level is equally foolish.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 I care more about these inconspicuous underlying security patches rather than treating them as "Ethereum has another problem" news: the security on-chain also depends on the off-chain software environment as a safety net.
This time, Teku and Besu have released Docker security fixes, and binary users need to separately check the Java runtime environment. The incident involves the private keys of eight emSign G3 intermediate CAs under eMudhra being recoverable; they admitted a script error generated weak keys, and the related intermediate certificates were revoked after being reported on October 17.
I think the real risk lies in the gap between "already revoked" and "already secure." The Teku announcement points out that Java does not check certificate revocation status by default, so handling the certificate on the server side does not automatically mean the affected runtime is safe. Just glancing at the fix title can easily miss this distinction.
Another key point is the deployment method: Docker has a fix, but that does not mean binary users have completed the fix. If operations confuse the two, then in my estimation, the risk window could be prolonged. This message more directly affects node operations; I would not infer the coin price direction based on this. Next, I want to see if the fix truly reaches the runtime environment, not just whether the announcement has been fully issued.Good news hits the face, so why hasn't $XRP risen yet?
$RLUSD got Moody's A2 rating and was listed on Coinbase, which sounds like another win for Ripple. What about $XRP? It has dropped about 11% recently, barely benefiting from this good news.
A2 is investment grade, only attracting pensions, insurance, and corporate treasury funds; BNY manages reserves, New York State regulation, OCC trust license adds another layer of federal endorsement, anchoring it steadily near 1 dollar. But its scale is only about 2.6 billion, compared to USDC's over 70 billion and USDT's over 180 billion, it's still a small player. Stablecoins rely on reserve interest for income; small scale means thin profits, and the money goes back to the company, not the coin price.
Coinbase shares revenue with Circle, so promoting USDC is more profitable; partnerships like Robinhood, Bitstamp, BNY expand RLUSD, not XRP. On Ethereum and Base, RLUSD can be used without touching XRP at all; even on its own ledger, it only generates a small amount of fees and account reserves.
A stronger company doesn't necessarily mean a more valuable token.
We only need to watch two things: whether anyone writes XRP as a bridge asset, and whether RLUSD grows faster on XRPL than on other chains. Until then, don't automatically translate stablecoin success into XRP price movement.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 DTCC’s launch matters because it tests tokenization where market plumbing is already trusted. The initial 34 instruments and 20 signed institutions show real institutional intent, while 1:1 backing preserves familiar rights rather than creating a parallel asset.
The open question is operational: 24/7 transfer is compelling only if settlement and collateral workflows gain measurable efficiency.
#DTCCTokenizationLive With "multiple universities will pay salaries through digital RMB" trending, the domestic progress in promoting digital RMB has clearly accelerated.
On one hand, it adapts to domestic development and demand,
but more importantly, I believe it is to counter the global expansion of the US's cryptocurrencies and stablecoins.
The direct competition between digital RMB and USDT/USDC is getting closer. The domestic side will definitely defend rigorously.
Therefore, the difficulty of cashing out and depositing can be imagined. $BTC has dropped to around 80,000, and even veteran players holding for more than half a year are starting to see unrealized losses? This set of on-chain data, I think, is much more interesting than guessing the bottom.
① First, look at a rather exaggerated number
Data shows that as of October 27, the amount of BTC held by long-term holders in an unrealized loss state has reached 4.08 million coins.
Seven days ago, it was only 2.82 million coins, an increase of 44.83% in one week.
Here, long-term holders refer to coins that have not moved on-chain for over 155 days.
In other words, many coins held since half a year ago are now looking bad on the books.
② But don’t rush to say the veterans can’t hold on
4.08 million is the amount of coins in unrealized loss, not 4.08 million BTC ready to be sold.
More interestingly, long-term holders still hold about 14.57 million BTC in total.
That is to say, although the unrealized loss coins have increased significantly, there is no evidence that these people are collectively cutting losses.
When the price drops, coins that were originally profitable turn into unrealized losses, which itself pushes this number up.
③ What really deserves attention is the rebound
The latest report mentions that around 84,000–85,000 USD, a large amount of cost basis coins held by long-term holders have clustered, which has suppressed BTC rebounds multiple times this year.
For BTC to move up from 80,000, it not only needs new funds to enter but may also face selling pressure from some previously trapped coins. #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 CORE: A 'public chain' with a TVL of 3.82 million and daily transaction volume of 900 USD, ranked in the top 200 by market cap
A set of highly contrasting data is presented: the circulating market cap still firmly ranks within the top 200 cryptocurrencies, but the Core chain's native DeFi locked assets have shrunk to 3.82 million USD, and the on-chain DEX daily transaction volume is only 900 USD. This huge contrast is the most realistic portrait of CORE today. Many people confuse two layers of data: the BTC staking assets supporting the market cap narrative, and the Core chain's DeFi funds, which are completely separate systems. The BTC used to support the BTCFi story is locked through CLTV time locks on the Bitcoin mainnet to participate in consensus staking; these assets have not entered Core chain DeFi contracts. The 3.82 million TVL and 900 USD daily transaction volume represent the true activity level of the Core chain's internal DeFi ecosystem. This data exposes the core contradiction: the token still maintains a decent market cap ranking, but the on-chain application layer funds have almost completely fled, causing huge slippage and liquidity exhaustion. Ordinary users are unwilling to conduct trading or lending activities on the Core chain, on-chain fee income is nearly depleted, and the foundation's envisioned value flywheel of fee buybacks for tokens is difficult to realize❌. However, it cannot be directly concluded that the project is completely worthless: the BTC staking narrative at the Satoshi Plus consensus layer still exists, and institutional BTC yield products are still advancing. Relying solely on consensus layer staking data to support market cap while the on-chain DeFi ecosystem is in shock is itself a very high-risk signal. This is compounded by the continuous withdrawal of independent validators.$BTC 81171.9, up 0.49% today, still red but the position looks bad. The four moving averages are pressing down layer by layer from above, down 0.30% over 7 days, basically grinding in place. Volume in the last 5 days dropped to 0.76 times the previous 20 days, money is quietly flowing out. RSI 46.8 stuck in the middle, neither rising nor falling. Resistance above is at 84902.2 on October 21, support below is at 79241 on October 24; if broken, it will have to test MA120. Among these three, it’s the calmest one.
$PEPE gained 10.11% in 24 hours, the only one with a bottom among the three. All seven moving averages are fully holding. Up 15.00% over 7 days, positive returns in both cycles, rare in this market. Volume in the last 5 days is 1.82 times the previous 20 days, real money is pouring in. The strongest in this group, with no capital withdrawal.
$AAVE 134.25, up 0.63%, don’t take it seriously, it’s the worst looking among the three. Down 8.50% over 7 days, down 18.74% over 30 days, falling harder than anyone else. Volume at 1.09 times looks okay, but that’s volume from selling, not buying. RSI 34.4 is close to oversold. The only thing it can rely on now is 129.53 from October 27; if it can’t hold, it will head straight to MA120. Every rebound in this token is just an opportunity to exit.The boot has dropped, the Federal Reserve meeting results met expectations, and Bitcoin is unlikely to have a major short-term rebound!
At 2:00 AM last night, the Federal Reserve meeting kept interest rates unchanged as expected. There was a split in the vote, with two members supporting a rate hike. Overall, the stance remains hawkish, retaining the possibility of a rate hike in December. The market's expectation for loose liquidity was dashed, and Bitcoin experienced a significant short-term rebound!
BTC
The daily candlestick shows a bearish engulfing pattern with extremely low volume, indicating an overall trend of oscillating downward. The short-term focus is mainly on rebounds, with attention during the day on the 8050-8080 range for rebounds, and support below at 7920-7760.
ETH
For Ethereum, focus during the day is on the 2336 range for rebounds, with support below at 2280-2220. This correction has already reached the daily-level bottom. The next major correction will need to break below 2220. You can consider buying around the 2220 area. $BTC $ETH $BTC #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
The 80,000 level is critical! The hawkish aftereffects of the FOMC are fermenting; is the surge and pullback a shakeout or a false breakout?
The 1-hour chart shows BTC currently priced at $80,016.3. After the decision, it surged to $81,820 before quickly falling back, now breaking below the 80,000 integer level. KDJ has entered the oversold zone, MACD's green bars continue to expand, indicating concentrated short-term bearish momentum release. Short-term resistance is at $83,000.1, core support at $79,730.1, with a large oscillation range between $79,500 and $82,000 intact, but the short-term trend is clearly weak.
News remains a tug-of-war:
✅ Institutional funds remain bullish: In the two days before the decision, spot ETFs saw a cumulative net inflow of $286 million, with BlackRock products dominating, showing a clear preference for BTC, sharply contrasting with continuous outflows from Ethereum ETFs.
⚠️ Macro pressure reemerges: The Fed maintained rates at 10:2, with two members voting for a hike. The statement emphasized inflation remains above target, raising December rate hike expectations. The market is revising the optimistic "steady ≠ easing" outlook, trapping momentum-chasing funds.
Within 24 hours post-decision, long and short liquidation volume neared $400 million, with intense two-way shakeouts. On-chain indicators show potential buying support in the current area, but the true directional choice awaits confirmation of holding above the 80,000 level.
Do you think the 80,000 level can hold? What signals did Microsoft's and Google's earnings reports send? Why did the market fall instead of interest rates being cut?
Last night's performance of tech stocks is worth a thorough study.
Microsoft's and Google's earnings reports once again highlighted a problem for the market: AI investments are increasing, but how much actual return these investments can bring is uncertain. If capital expenditures continue to rise while monetization lags, the market will naturally reassess the valuation of tech stocks.
Looking at the Federal Reserve, maintaining interest rates unchanged is not surprising in itself. The real issue is how much rate cut expectations the market had already priced in. After the positive news is realized, if there is no new stimulus, it is not unusual for funds to choose to take profits.
So the core now is not simply judging whether the news is positive or negative, but rather how high the market's prior expectations were and whether actual performance can continue to exceed those expectations.
What should we do next?
I believe a short-term rebound cannot be ruled out. AI investment returns, corporate earnings, the Middle East situation, and whether the Fed cuts rates in December could all become catalysts for market volatility.
For me, at this stage, controlling position size and retaining initiative are more important. The semiconductor sector, which has seen significant gains recently, especially requires caution. We should not overlook short-term valuation and drawdown risks just because we are optimistic about AI's long-term development.
From the rising rate cut expectations in September, to the semiconductor surge and pullback, and now the market's reassessment of AI investment returns, these rounds of market movements remind us: having the right direction is important, but timing your trades is equally crucial.
Looking ahead, are you more optimistic about tech stocks strengthening again? Early 8's 2347~2391 box, at 09:00 a single 2.52 million volume broke through.
2353.6 dropped to 2313.16 (-1.72%), the first target for short positions in the morning session at 2321.31 was directly penetrated, at 10:00 another 3.05 million volume pierced 2292.25.
The key is the pullback: from 11:00 to 13:00 three bars with 3.18 million volume, highest at 2334.97, still 4.6 points short of MA20 at 2339.54. At 13:00, a 1.427 million volume attempt also failed to push it up.
At 14:00 only 295,000 volume remained, falling back to 2316.75. Pullback failing to surpass the moving average = confirmed breakdown.
Break 2292.25 (1H≥2.5 million) then short on rebound at 2305~2312, stop loss at 2326, target 2255, risk-reward ratio 2.5.
Close above 2339.54 (1H≥2 million) then long on pullback at 2330~2336, stop loss at 2318, target 2391.16, risk-reward ratio 4.1.
Current price 2316.75 / -1.62% / MA20 overhead by 23 points. US Eastern Time 02:00, pricing fixed at 21:30.
$ETH
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)Tonight PCE and GDP together: If inflation cools down and growth weakens, which side will BTC trade first?
At 20:30 tonight, PCE and GDP will be released simultaneously. On one hand, inflation may cool down; on the other, the economy may weaken. Should BTC be happy or worried?
My judgment: If inflation cools and growth only slows moderately, the market may first trade on easing rate hike concerns; but if GDP is weaker than expected, growth worries might outweigh this positive.
The Federal Reserve just kept rates unchanged, with two officials still advocating for a hike, and the statement said inflation remains high. So if core PCE is below expectations, rate hike expectations might ease, and risk assets could breathe a sigh of relief first.
Don’t rush to chase the first green candle. If GDP is clearly below expectations, concerns go beyond rates to corporate earnings and risk appetite. A drop in U.S. Treasury yields may also reflect growth worries, so this alone can’t be taken as a positive for BTC.
Tonight I’ll watch $80,000 first. If after the data BTC closes above this level on the hourly chart, and a pullback doesn’t break it, then consider following the rebound; if it rallies then falls back below $80,000 and the rebound can’t reclaim it, then give up chasing longs for now. Below, watch the previous 24-hour low near 79,709.
The counterpoint must be acknowledged: even if GDP is weak, if BTC retakes and holds the previous 24-hour high at 81,820, it shows buying strength stronger than I expected, so growth worries can’t continue to weigh on the market.
$BTC $ETH #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温