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Pressed the same stone twice: the second time the money doubled, but it dropped by 0.1.
07:00 touched 11.02 using only 389,000 contracts, closed at 10.63 with a long upper shadow. 08:00 used 844,000 contracts (the largest volume of the day, nearly a quarter of the 24h volume), the highest was only 10.95, down 0.07, closed at 10.64—it's not that no one is above, someone is pressing.
09:00-10:00 699,000 contracts cut from 10.95 down to 10.33. 11:00-12:00 337,000 contracts only recovered to 10.76, didn't even reach 10.95. 13:00 a bearish candle with 209,000 contracts pushed back to 10.59, currently 10.41, only 0.08 away from 10.33.
24h -1.89% / MA20 10.68 with a resistance of 0.27. It's only 02:00 Eastern US time, market opens at 21:30, no anchor.
Rebound between 10.55~10.62 but closed bearish with volume at 10.33 only 1.5 times, longs to 11.02 only 1.8 times, neither side reaches 2, no trade.
Waiting for a breakout: short if volume closes below 10.33 (≥200,000 contracts) with a rebound between 10.36~10.40, stop loss at 10.52, target 10.10, odds 2.0.
$KORU
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)BTC's market situation these days is worth pondering.
From Monday to Wednesday, about $1.075 billion flowed into the US spot BTC ETFs, indicating significant institutional entry, yet the price has not risen accordingly. The turning point in the market came at the end of the week, with continuous outflows on Thursday and Friday totaling about $774 million. Preliminary data shows a net inflow for the whole week, but buying momentum has clearly cooled, and the divergence between bulls and bears is widening.
Both Cz and Fidelity have mentioned that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle logic has long been broken.
The foundation of the four-year cycle comes from Bitcoin's halving mechanism: a fixed total supply cap of 21 million, with the current circulating supply around 19.9678 million. However, the explosive effect brought by halving has significantly weakened by now, making it difficult to simply apply historical trends to predict bull or bear markets.
Going forward, judging BTC's market phase should no longer focus on the halving cycle but rather on the trend of US dollar depreciation and the real market enthusiasm. $BTC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Personally, I think the short-term benefits of crypto and options trading are still there, but in the long run, the emotional nature of retail traders determines the strong cyclicality of their performance. The key is whether trading users can be converted into wealth management users (such as Gold subscriptions). What does everyone think?”$OKB
The platform token's performance is close to the overall market; does it require an independent event explanation?
In this morning's spot snapshot, OKB's 24-hour price change was -1.34%, ranging between 106 and 109.37 USDT.
The pullback is similar to BTC's, so there is no need to create platform events to explain daily fluctuations. Research should separately verify business demand, token supply, and overall risk appetite to avoid letting price act as evidence for news.
If the market stabilizes but relative weakness continues, then look for specific supply and demand changes; if the recovery is synchronized, market factors should still be prioritized.Is BTC falling below 80,000 just the beginning? Bulls are still waiting for a reversal, while bears are eyeing below $79,800
$BTC is currently around $80,696, down -0.61% intraday, with the price close to the 7-day low of $80,513 and just one step away from the 30-day low of $79,800. The EMA structure is weak: the price is below the short-term moving averages, with EMA7 around $82,068 and EMA25 around $83,065, forming continuous resistance above; the MACD death cross has persisted for 25 daily bars, and the green histogram is still expanding. You can be bullish, but don’t mistake a small rebound for a reversal signal.
What’s more concerning is the lack of volume-price coordination. Today’s trading volume is only 0.19 times the 7-day average volume, with no incremental funds supporting the rebound; instead, high-level chips continue to be digested; net capital outflow is about 288 BTC, and large orders are also biased bearish. Many retail investors love to shout “it won’t fall further” at this kind of level, then blindly bottom-fish and hold long positions, ultimately misreading a breakdown as a “main force shakeout.”
The key now is not whether bulls can shout, but whether $80,513 can hold: if the daily candle breaks down effectively, the market may continue to test the $79,800 level; if this area is lost, the risk of a structural pullback will further increase. The short logic is not superstition about decline, but respect for the pressure given by the trend, volume, and capital flow together. Do you think this is the last drop, or the starting point of the bulls’ shattered illusions? 🟢$HYPE is around 76 USD, still panicking and selling at a loss? The most interesting market situation is that everyone is focused on the decline, but no one seriously calculates how much the protocol is actually buying every day!
Brothers, HYPE has retraced more than 20% from around 98 USD, making it painful for those chasing highs, and the bears are starting to feel confident. But as of October 26, the latest data shows that Hyperliquid generated about 83 million USD in fees over the past 30 days, and the protocol's aid fund repurchased about 749,500 HYPE, worth approximately 56 million USD during the same period! This is the core logic that bulls should pay attention to.
📢 There's another new development! On October 23, Hyperliquid Strategies increased the company's stock repurchase authorization to 100 million USD. Note, this repurchase is for company stock, not a direct buyback of HYPE, but if it reduces token selling pressure in the future, it could indirectly affect market supply and demand.
📊 Key levels highlighted!
Currently, around 75 USD is the short-term observation zone; only consider rebound opportunities if it stabilizes and shows higher lows; above that, first watch 79 USD, and after a volume-supported hold, look at 82–85 USD. If it effectively breaks below 75 USD, be cautious of further decline and avoid blindly adding positions.
Personally, I lean towards focusing on HYPE's rebound opportunities, based on protocol revenue, ongoing buybacks, and the development of the perpetual contract market. But don't overlook the planned unlocking of about 9.92 million HYPE on November 6, as supply pressure still exists.
$ETH $BTC When quantum risk truly materializes and the market confirms it as a real threat, a 50% drop is a moderate probability scenario but not inevitable; the final extent of the drop depends on whether upgrades can be implemented and how existing high-risk coins are handled. Approximately 30% of BTC across the network are high-risk coins with exposed public keys, while the rest, such as new SegWit addresses, do not expose public keys unless actively transacted. The risk is layered, not all bitcoins will be unlocked and stolen simultaneously.
1. Under what conditions is BTC likely to be halved (drop by half) directly?
1. The market confirms the practical use of quantum machines, but the Bitcoin community fails to reach consensus on upgrades.
Bitcoin has no centralized management; post-quantum signature upgrades (like BIP-360) require broad coordination among miners, exchanges, wallets, and whales. If debates drag on and hard fork proposals fail, the market will apply a huge "security discount." Institutions and ETF funds, being risk-averse, will reduce holdings en masse to hedge, causing capital flight combined with cascading liquidations in derivatives, easily triggering a deep 50% level crash. This is what many experts fear most: not quantum theft happening immediately, but confidence collapse caused by governance and coordination failure.
2. The "store first, break later" risk narrative is repriced by institutions.
On-chain historical transactions are permanently stored; attackers could have already collected all exposed public keys in advance, waiting for quantum devices to mature to crack them in bulk. Even if no theft has occurred yet, if the market deems this risk unsolvable, it will refuse to assign the original valuation. With 30% of assets in high-risk status, valuations could be halved, a pricing reaction the market can easily give.
3. Structural capital shifts occur, with some funds moving to native post-quantum resistant assets.
The market will compare: BTC’s underlying algorithm has a long-term security time bomb, while coins like STRK designed as post-quantum L1s from the ground up, and privacy coins like ZEC undergoing post-quantum upgrades, will absorb some of the safe-haven capital. Capital outflows from BTC to quantum-safe narrative coins will further amplify BTC selling pressure, driving the halving scenario.
4. Amplified downside due to macro and regulatory resonance.
If quantum negative news coincides with high interest rates, continuous ETF redemptions, and tightening regulations, multiple negative factors will resonate, causing confidence to collapse and potentially triggering a halving or even deeper drop.
2. Under what conditions will there be no halving, only a mild correction (20%-30% drop)?
1. The Bitcoin community reaches consensus early and successfully completes a soft fork upgrade, launching standard post-quantum resistant addresses.
Holders have ample time to migrate coins from high-risk addresses to new post-quantum addresses. The risk becomes a solvable engineering problem with a timeline, not a deadlock. The market will only apply a small risk discount, not a 50% haircut.
2. Most high-risk coins are dormant (e.g., early Satoshi coins, lost private key coins) and won’t be stolen in bulk in the short term.
Even if theoretically crackable, these coins are not actively traded and won’t cause concentrated sell-offs. The market will rationally differentiate: only early reused addresses and P2PK addresses are high-risk; modern SegWit addresses have limited risk and won’t be uniformly discounted by 50%.
3. The two most extreme scenarios:
- Optimistic: orderly upgrade completed, risks gradually resolved, only short-term volatility with shallow declines;
- Pessimistic: upgrade stuck in long-term splits, fork failure, first large quantum theft confirmed, consensus severely damaged, drop far exceeding 50%.
4. Key distinction: is the drop expected first, or does it happen after actual theft?
Most likely, the drop won’t wait for hackers to steal coins but will be a market risk anticipation and pre-pricing. Once authoritative institutions confirm practical quantum computers can break ECDSA, institutions will rush to sell first, causing prices to react ahead of the risk, i.e., the so-called "risk hasn’t arrived, price falls first." The most striking current data is that 64% of net long positions are built above $81,993. For every hour BTC hovers around $80,000, the unrealized loss pressure on these positions accumulates another layer.
$BTC is around $80,000. This week, ETF net inflows reached 301 million, ending two consecutive weeks of decline, but on Thursday and Friday combined, outflows totaled 773.5 million, with October still showing a net outflow of 314 million. The weekly figure is positive, but the monthly gap remains unfilled. $80,000 is the anchor point for the bull-bear battle, with $79,200 and the $78,000–$78,600 range coming into view below.
$ETH is around $2,300, having broken below the 100-day moving average. ETH ETFs saw outflows of 221 million this week, with a cumulative October loss of 1.18 billion. ETFs are withdrawing, but on-chain, 170,000 ETH were withdrawn from exchanges in a single day, and staking volume hit a record high. The sellable and non-sellable are diverging.
$SOL is around $101. SOL ETFs have seen cumulative outflows of 68 million this month, with zero net inflow on the 24th. The $100 level is repeatedly tested, but buying pressure is temporarily absent.
In short: The FOMC meeting will conclude on the 27th–28th, followed closely by the PCE data. The cost lines for long positions in these three coins are simultaneously being held down. ETFs turned positive weekly but have not recovered monthly. Money is waiting for data to provide a reason.
For record-keeping of market conditions only, not investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The Fed takes no action in October—has the rate hike really peaked?
The 10-year US Treasury yield is around 4.97%, the S&P 500 is about 7623 points, and the market is clearly still digesting tightening expectations. Goldman Sachs' FCI has only tightened by 30 basis points, mainly because the market has priced in rate hikes in advance; the Fed won't see this as a reason to stop directly.
Skipping a rate hike is a strategic pause.
Skipping October is just to observe data for two more months; the probability of a final 25 basis point hike this round in December is very high.
The source of inflation is on the supply side.
Middle East tensions push up oil prices, AI computing power drives hardware price increases—these cost pressures are hard to solve by aggressive rate hikes alone; aggressively crushing demand would instead hurt employment.
The real risk is next year.
More than staying put this month, we need to guard against a secondary inflation rebound triggered by concentrated corporate price adjustments early next year.
October's pause is an illusion; December is the finale. Don't misinterpret a short-term pause as a shift.
DYOR ENA +8% to $0.208, but I'm not chasing this breakout yet.
USDe just went native on X Layer and OKX Wallet via Aave v3.
ENA is up ~13% from the $0.185 low and pressing $0.21.
The catch: the buyback is still off.
USDe sits near $4.8B vs the $7.5B trigger.
275M ENA unlock on Nov 1, and a big whale dumped 14M ENA last week.
I think the catalyst is real, but supply is heavy.
Holding $0.21 opens room; losing $0.20 kills the move.
Breakout or bull trap before the unlock?
$ENA $ETH
#EthenaLast week, the US spot BTC ETF finally had a net inflow of about $301 million, but on Thursday alone, $636 million flowed out, and on Friday another $138 million left. The first three days saw an inflow of over $1 billion, but the last two days gave back most of it. The funds fluctuated repeatedly.
$BTC is now hovering around 80,300, with a 24-hour high of 81,070 and a low of 79,840. The volatility is very narrow, funding rates are roughly neutral, and contract leverage hasn't noticeably increased, indicating that no one wants to recklessly add positions at this time.
I feel the ETF buying is still there but very fragile. A large portion came in from Monday to Wednesday, then IBIT and FBTC led the way out in the last two days. It looks more like probing positions rather than continuous buying. The price has held above 80,000, but the volume around 81,000 is insufficient to push higher.
In the short term, I consider 79,800 to 80,000 as the support zone. If it breaks 79,800, reduce positions and wait. The resistance above is between 81,000 and 81,300; if it can't break through, don't chase. Focus on light swing trading with a stop loss below 79,600. Don't stubbornly fight the sentiment.
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 Bitcoin chips are concentrated in the hands of a few big players. Even if these big players choose to stick to consensus, it cannot stop the reasons for a deep market correction summary
1. The "holding firm" by big players mostly means locking their positions without moving, not continuously injecting new funds to support the market
Whales and institutions hoard coins, many just hold without selling, but they won't keep injecting new funds to continuously buy. Holding chips ≠ unlimited buying pressure.
Stopping a price drop requires continuous new buying power; big players just don't sell, but they won't keep spending heavily to absorb all floating sell orders in the market. Locked positions can only reduce some supply but cannot actively prop up the price, which is the core difference.
2. There is no unified consensus among big players; some hold firm, others take profits in batches when prices rise
Don't assume all major holders share the same stance. Early whales, ETF institutions, and strategic enterprises have vastly different holding costs. Some long-term believers choose to hold; others face asset rebalancing, risk control, repayments, and fund redemption pressures, and will reduce positions when the market weakens.
As long as some big players choose to sell, it offsets the support from those holding firm, causing internal division and preventing a unified defense force.
3. Tradable floating chips mean pricing power is not in the hands of locked big players
A large amount of Bitcoin is dormant long-term, but short-term price movements are determined by circulating supply, ETF subscription/redemption, leveraged positions, and retail trading. Even if 90% of chips are locked by whales, if floating selling pressure exceeds buying, prices will still fall.
Locked chips are just stock and do not participate in market bidding, so they don't directly support real-time prices. The thinner the liquidity, the easier it is for small sell orders to cause large price drops.
4. Macro liquidity is the top-level trend; no matter how strong the belief, it cannot resist the US dollar cycle
Bitcoin is a high-risk asset, with pricing fundamentally influenced by Federal Reserve rates, US Treasury yields, inflation, and geopolitical situations. In high interest rate cycles, capital naturally prefers fixed income assets and avoids cash-flow-less crypto assets.
This is a systemic macro environment that cannot be reversed by the consensus of a few big holders. When liquidity tightens, institutional risk control will passively reduce positions, which is a passive rule unaffected by personal beliefs.
5. Derivatives leverage is an independent amplifier of declines, unrelated to whether big players hold firm
There are many contract long positions and margin holdings in the market. Once key price levels are broken, it triggers cascading liquidations and automatic market sell orders, forming a downward spiral.
This is a programmed forced liquidation process; regardless of whether whales want to defend the market, liquidation orders will automatically flood out. Even if big players don't sell coins, the leverage liquidation wave can keep pushing prices down deeply.
6. Regulatory risks and long-term cryptographic risks are systemic negatives; consensus cannot withstand regulatory and technological pressures
National regulatory policies, anti-money laundering audits, and quantum computing long-term security risks are underlying narrative risks.
Once these risks ferment, institutional risk budgets will shrink directly. Institutions have compliance boundaries and won't rely solely on belief to heavily buy against the trend. The personal belief of big players cannot change global capital's risk pricing.
7. Incremental funds are exhausted; in a stock game environment, belief has no new capital relay
Bull market rises rely on continuous influx of new off-exchange participants and funds to take over. When market heat fades and incremental off-exchange funds stop, the market becomes a zero-sum game.
No matter how many coins big players hold, they cannot conjure off-exchange funds out of thin air. Without new participants to take over, relying only on old players exchanging among themselves, the downtrend is hard to reverse.
8. Big players' holdings also face passive pressure; they don't hold forever unconditionally
Many institutions and enterprises buy coins with borrowed money, facing interest and repayment pressures; ETFs face client redemptions, which require selling BTC to pay out.
When the market keeps falling and margin is insufficient, even firmly bullish institutions will passively reduce holdings. The so-called "holding firm" has limits and is not unconditional permanent holding. The volatility this week will still be intense. Although oil has pulled back a bit, it is still around 100. Right now, too much capital is choosing to seek safety in U.S. Treasuries rather than gold. The liquidity in the pool is somewhat insufficient.
Coupled with the uncertainty of the interest rate meeting in the early hours of the 29th, most people are currently watching and seeking safety.
If the rebound starts early this week, it means expectations are being prepaid; after the rebound, there will be a retreat. If there is no rebound and the market remains volatile, it means waiting for negative news to surface. We still need to probe the short-term bottom.
It’s uncertain whether this level can fully stabilize, so one can only slowly operate on the left side; for ultra-short-term trades, buy a little when it’s oversold and exit the same day.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 This morning's short position was in the right direction, gaining 4.7 points, but no profit was made — the stop loss was placed incorrectly.
At 08:00, a volume of 367,000 contracts (4.5 times the previous 81,000) opened at 85.27, surged to 86.69, then dropped to 83.05. The 86.69 high was only 0.14 below the 24h high of 86.83, yet it was 0.29 above the stop loss at 86.40 — a spike that triggered the stop loss on the short position before the price dropped.
All targets were hit: 83.91 reached before noon, 83.40 by 9 AM, with a low of 82.08. Placing the stop loss outside 86.83 yielded 2.6 times the profit; placing it at 86.40 resulted in a -1R loss.
Current price is 83.42 / 24h change -1.02% / MA20 at 84.80. The new resistance is at 85.02 at 13:00 (82,000 contracts, closed bearish); the support at 82.08 has not been broken. It's only 02:00 Eastern Time, and the 21:30 market open is what really counts.
If the price rebounds between 84.0~84.3 but fails to break through and closes bearish with volume (≥50,000), short with a stop loss at 84.90 and a target of 82.08, offering a risk-reward ratio of 2.8.
If it closes above 85.02 with volume (≥80,000) and then pulls back to 84.7~84.9, go long with a stop loss at 84.10 and a target of 86.83, risk-reward ratio 2.9. Avoid trading around 83.4.
$SOXL
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)$MON is bearish. On November 24, there will be a cliff unlock, approximately 33% of the already unlocked circulating supply, and there are 29 days left until that day. The real focus should be on the week from November 17 to 23. Our backtesting of similar large unlocks shows that underperformance against the market almost always concentrates in the 7 days before the unlock; two sample periods align in direction, with three out of four closing negative. There is no stable direction after the unlock day, so there's no need to bet on the 24th itself. Currently, the contract market is very small; liquidations are mostly scattered long positions, leverage is not stacked, and the price is mainly determined by spot. The chart shows lower highs and bearish moving averages, consistent with supply logic, indicating this weakness will likely drag through the window period. Starting from the 17th, watch two things: whether $MON starts to lag the market and whether the rebound has volume. The condition to turn bullish is to reclaim and hold 0.02193 before the 17th, while remaining relatively strong against the market during the window period. If both conditions are met, then withdraw the bearish view. Turnaround, turnaround! As soon as the votes opened, the Brazil ETF perpetual futures plunged over 23% in one day 😂
The weekend Brazilian presidential runoff results came out: Lula, in his 80s, got about 51.8%, his opponent about 48.2%, becoming president for the fourth time. The market had been betting on the other side all week; at Friday's close, the ETF tracking the Brazilian stock market was still around $42. After the vote turnaround, before the US market officially opened, the after-hours quote was smashed down to around $35, dropping nearly 20% overnight.
The EWZUSDT perpetual on European exchanges was even more brutal, down about 23.4% in 24 hours, crashing from around $45 at open to about $34, with a trading volume of approximately $65.5 million and nearly 400,000 trades. Watching the first three hours after the vote count came out, trading volume already exceeded $50 million, about 16 times the previous day's full-day volume, and open interest surged from about $2.9 million to $7.5 million. The Brazilian real futures once dropped over 10%, and related oil stocks were also hammered.
Those holding election-related positions over the weekend basically let the votes decide for them. This kind of overnight pricing makes you sweat for your positions just watching.
For beginners, it's recommended to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC When the whole world is waiting for the same door to open, the real danger is often hidden behind another window.
This week, the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting is about to take place.
The market has almost reached a consensus! It is highly likely that there will be no rate change in October, with the probability of maintaining the current rate exceeding 90%.
Retail investors breathe a sigh of relief at this number, thinking "the bad news is all out, it's time to rise."
But this is precisely the biggest trap.
The real fatal issue is never whether there will be a rate hike in October, but that after the meeting, the market will suddenly realize that a rate hike in December is still looming overhead.
Goldman Sachs has clearly predicted that the Federal Reserve will adopt a "skip one hike" pace, skipping October and implementing the second rate hike of this cycle in December.
ING's judgment is the same: October is just to buy observation time, and December will be the real restart.
What does this mean?
It means that even if the October meeting maintains the current rate, as long as the statement and press conference reveal any hint of a hawkish tone "paving the way for a December hike," the market logic will instantly switch from "bad news is all out" to "the next one will hurt more."
DWS's chief economist bluntly states that the most likely scenario in October is "hawkish pause."
Maintain rates, but with a sharp edge in the words.
And Federal Reserve Chair Powell is precisely someone who almost never provides forward guidance.
He won't give you a clear anchor, and the market will fall into greater uncertainty after the meeting.
Uncertainty means volatility, the roar before the meat grinder starts.
My short position is still in hand, with an average price of 2583, and the floating profit has already exceeded 10 times.
If the market temporarily rebounds because of "no rate hike in October," that will be my window to add to my short position.
If after the meeting, the market starts to price in the December hike early, the decline will come even faster.
Don't bet on the meeting's result. Bet on how the market will interpret the next result after that outcome is announced.
$BTC $ETH
$SOL
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $PEPE This market situation is a bit absurd.
The coin price keeps climbing, but the funding rate has been crushed to an extreme negative value, with shorts paying interest every day to hold on stubbornly.
Coincidentally, Sun directly withdrew 7.2 trillion spot tokens from the exchange. Big players don’t care about technical indicators; they openly move the tokens into their own wallets.
A large portion of the spot circulating supply has been pulled out, while the contracts are still full of stubborn shorts.
As soon as there’s any bullish candle, all these shorts will be forced to liquidate and become fuel for the rally.
#PEPE
$PEPE
👇Night session anomaly observation: Three targets strengthen simultaneously, but the driving factors behind them differ and cannot be simply categorized as the same type of market. **$SLX｜Rental income logic combined with sector sentiment** Currently at 0.05104, up 2.22% intraday. SLX splits the long-term equity of wafer fabs into on-chain shares, with the income logic mainly derived from quarterly rent rather than solely relying on spot price fluctuations. Recently, the price has slowly risen from around 0.048, but the trading volume is only $4.52 million, indicating relatively limited liquidity; large trades may trigger significant volatility. The warming sentiment in the storage sector may provide some support, but whether it can sustain requires observation of subsequent transactions and capital flows. **$UNITREE｜Up nearly 25% in a week, clearly news-driven** Currently at 94.95, continuously rising from around 76 over the past week, with a cumulative increase close to 25%. On-chain shares related to Unitree Robotics are easily influenced by news such as product delivery and financing progress. Due to the relatively small market size, news stimuli may further amplify price volatility. Going forward, it is important to distinguish between genuine business progress and short-term speculative hype. After continuous gains, the risk of chasing highs is also worth caution. **$RE｜Slight rebound, but liquidity remains a key issue** Currently at 0.37724, rebounding 1.7%. As a target related to on-chain risk compensation funds, its trading volume is only $310,000, showing clearly weak liquidity. Such targets may rapidly surge in the short term but can also quickly give back gains. To form an independent market, it still requiresFranklin Templeton has submitted the registration for two dividend-reinvesting Bitcoin index ETF shares to Nasdaq: FBEQ and FIBT. Form 8-A was filed on October 22, with the prospectus effective date set for October 27, and trading has not yet started. The index initially consists of about 95% U.S. stocks and 5% Bitcoin, with dividends reinvested into BTC on the next trading day after the ex-dividend date. Quarterly rebalancing: if BTC weight exceeds 5%, it is cut back to 4.5%; if the closing price rises over 20% between two reviews, it is also reset to 4.5%. Fees are 0.09% for FBEQ and 0.19% for FIBT. CoinGecko spot BTC is about $80,131 (snapshot around 14:05 Beijing time), down about 0.43% in the last 24 hours.
The key point is not just that there are two more Bitcoin ETFs, but the rule that dividends are mandatorily reinvested into BTC. Opponents might say the 5% starting allocation is too small and that since trading hasn't started, it doesn't represent new inflows. However, the prospectus clearly states the reinvestment mechanism and circuit breaker reset; once effective, dividends will continuously buy BTC as they are paid.
The observation window is set for one week after the prospectus becomes effective on October 27: first, check if there are tradable tickers. If no listing or trading occurs within a week, treat this as registration news rather than actual capital inflow.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #ETF$ATOM
On October 28th, at 8 PM Korea time, Upbit suspended deposits and withdrawals of ATOM from that moment.
The previous message just mentioned Upbit putting INIT on the warning list, now it's Upbit again, but these are two different matters. The announcement clearly states it is to cooperate with the Cosmos Hub network upgrade; trading continues as usual during this period, and the resumption time will be notified separately. Those who think a suspension of deposits and withdrawals means a run are mostly scared by rumors.
I checked the price. Upbit spot is 2,190 KRW, which converts to 1.654 USD at an exchange rate of 1,324, while OKX is at 1.64 USD, a premium of less than 1%. If anyone is rushing to exit, this price difference is too small to matter.
The market is still thin; OKX perpetual positions total 4.16 million USD, with daily volume over 2 million. Spot rose 1.3% in a day, but the contract funding rate is negative, so few are willing to pay to chase longs.
I also glanced at Upbit's 52-week range: it reached 4,750 KRW last November, now at 2,190. I don't touch these old coins. But for announcements like this, I spend a couple more minutes reading the reason fully, to avoid mistaking technical maintenance for a run.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 At 7:50 this morning, Bitcoin fell below 80,000, with Coinbase's one-minute chart hitting 79,732 and closing at 79,777, showing a long lower shadow before recovering. This is the first real breach in over a month.
But the more important event today is that gold also dropped. Spot gold is at 3,991, down from 4,140 six days ago. Brent crude is at 110.46.
In a week of real war and oil prices at 110, two "safe-haven assets" are being sold together, with only crude oil rising. This is not a failure of safe havens but a liquidity squeeze—when institutions need cash, they sell the most liquid assets, not the least trusted.
On October 30, options expire on 140,844 BTC, with a notional value of about 10 billion. The biggest pain point is at 78,000. This figure has three caveats: it changes with every contract opened, academic conclusions differ, and three platforms calculate it as 76,000/79,000/80,000.
The real informative aspect is the distribution shape: bullish positions above 95,000 account for 13% of open interest, with a notional value of 1.6 billion, requiring a 23% rise in four days to have any intrinsic value. Put options are densely clustered at 70,000, 72,000, and 80,000. Hedgers buy insurance down below, speculators buy lottery tickets above.
Funding rates remain positive: +0.0054% per 8 hours, annualized at 6%. Volume is 32.7 billion, down 26% from the previous day. Open interest is 53.3 billion.
These three numbers together indicate: the price has dropped 36%, but there is no surrender. A real crash would show negative funding rates plus a collapse in open interest; neither is present today. This is fatigue, not a crash.
Key levels: 84,000–85,000 rebound zone, 82,000 resistance, 80,000 lost, 79,000 short-term support, 78,000 magnet, 77,500 lower boundary.
My probabilities: grinding between 78,000–80,000 until delivery 45%, breaking 78,000 to 75,000–77,000 35%, returning above 82,000 20%.
The asymmetry is: 5% down, 5% up, but the conditions to trigger a drop are easier to meet.
Are you worried about breaking 78,000, or are you adding positions at this level again?
Not investment advice, risk at your own discretion.
#MarketAnalysis $BTC$BTC
I never follow long positions with 30x leverage that keep adding as the price drops. Today I ran into a perfect example again.
The BTC long position ranked fourth on Hyperliquid opened on October 23 at an entry price of 81168. When the price dropped to 79322 today, he didn’t exit; instead, he added another 302.5 coins and added $2.15 million in margin. Now holding 795 coins worth over $63 million, with an unrealized loss of $878,000.
I calculated that from 81168 to the lowest 79322, the price difference is 2.3%. With 30x leverage, that means 70% of equity is wiped out. Only 30% remains to add margin, which suggests this person either made substantial profits before or has more funds in the wallet.
The same address also holds a ZEC long position of 4717 coins, entry price 1195, now at 1212, so this side is profitable. BTC is now around 80200, down only half a percent in 24 hours, and the perpetual funding rate is slightly positive. The market isn’t as scary as the breaking news suggests.
I used to follow whales adding positions, thinking someone was supporting the price. After being taught a few times, I realized it’s not about being right, it’s about being able to hold on. I can’t hold on, so I just watch the show.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Conclusion first: $ENA rose 9% today, but the buyback funds haven't arrived yet; what came first is the unlocking.
After Ethena's August proposal "All net income to buy back ENA" fee switch (The Block 8-27), the new proposal on 10-21 changed the trigger conditions and unlocking schedule: USDe supply must reach 7.5 billion to start buybacks (Pluang, CryptoTicker). According to DefiLlama on 10-26, USDe is only at 4.583 billion, priced at 0.99952, still 63.6% short.
What landed first is the unlocking of 275 million ENA on November 1, about 56.9 million USD, accounting for 2.05% of the 1.34 billion circulating supply. At the same time, Arthur Hayes transferred 14 million ENA to Cumberland, with a cumulative transfer out of 28.81 million USD (TokenPost 10-25).
Market: ENA-USDT-SWAP at 0.2084, 24h high 0.2115 low 0.18868, volume 69.67 million USD, open interest 17.92 million USD; funding rate settles every 8 hours, multiple periods at 0.0001, annualized 10.95%.
Market cap 2.81 billion, 86% below ATH 1.52. Can this wave of expectations hold until November 1?#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
"On the Eve of the Fed Decision: BTC's 80,000 Gamble"
This week, the Federal Reserve will announce the October interest rate decision, and everyone is watching how Powell will speak. BTC just surged past $84,000, then immediately fell below the $80,000 mark, now hovering around $80,200.
On-exchange trading volume has been cut in half from over $500 million to $150 million, with major institutions locking in their chips; no one wants to give away chips for free before the rate decision.
The $80,000 level has become the battleground for bulls and bears, with institutions on both sides waiting for the decision statement to be finalized before making the next big move with their positions. $BTC $BTC's 80,000 defense battle turned into an "80,000 tug-of-war," showing the bulls' true resilience. Watching the market all morning, BTC mainly played a "low-volume death feint," briefly dipping below 79,277 at dawn, then wobbling back near 80,000 now, ending up a bit pointless.
ETH's drama is even bigger. A certain giant whale's 115,000 ETH long position is just $30 away from liquidation. At dawn, they urgently added 9.21 million USDT margin, forcefully pushing the liquidation price down to 2,181. Currently holding nearly $400 million in long positions, the liquidation line is right underfoot.
Don't ask about direction; the answer is the whale is holding, and we're just watching. The margin they added could cycle through my account 800 times; I can barely even play the hype man now. Let's see if the "whale's lifeline" at 2,181 gets touched.#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $ETH $BTC $SOL BTC dipped to 79,840 over the weekend, then regained the 80,000 mark, but trading volume was only half of the 7-day average, indicating a typical low-volume consolidation pattern. The Middle East situation has become a secondary background factor and is no longer the core logic driving the market. Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the market is likely to remain in a narrow range around 80,000. Hold spot positions patiently and avoid frequent trading; if you want to engage in short-term speculation, it is recommended to wait until after Wednesday's rate decision.
The market faces clear resistance above, with multiple moving averages suppressing the price. The MA30 is at 82,900, and price rebounds to this level tend to encounter resistance and pull back; the upper limit of the range at 87,200 is a stronger medium- to long-term resistance level.
Looking at ZEC, there is a divergence between volume and price. The price fell from 1,373 to around 1,200, and during the rebound phase, volume shrank, indicating insufficient follow-up funds. The current price of 1,196 just holds above the MA20, RSI is 47.8, showing moderate strength and not entering the overbought zone. However, it is one of the few coins with positive returns over the past 7 days. This round of the privacy sector has shown an independent counter-trend performance, worth noting.
For ETH, do not blindly bottom-fish around 2,300 to catch a falling knife; patiently wait for the whale liquidation price test to settle. On-chain, a long position worth $397 million had a large investor add $9.21 million in margin last night, lowering the liquidation price from 2,256 to 2,181. The current ETH price is 2,327, only $146 above the liquidation line, with risk looming overhead.
Summary: BTC is consolidating with low volume awaiting the interest rate decision;Crude oil has once again risen above 100, but I expect crude oil to soon experience a significant pullback——
The U.S. midterm elections start on November 3rd, and it is unlikely that Trump will cause trouble at this time.
At that time, gold will see a rebound $XAU #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
K Hynix Q3 earnings report is imminent, can HBM4 boost profitability?
1. Profit structure: Driven by general DRAM price increases, not just HBM
• Q2 DRAM revenue was 58.3 trillion KRW, of which HBM accounted for only 9.4 trillion, about 16% of DRAM; the remaining approximately 49 trillion was general DRAM (calculated by subtracting the two figures).
• The main reason Q2 revenue missed expectations was DRAM; general DRAM revenue was 9.7% below consensus, and HBM shipments were also 7.4% less than expected.
• In other words, current profits are mainly driven by memory price cycles; HBM serves as a technological moat and long-term contract support but is not yet the main profit source.
2. Q3 expectations: Dual boost from prices and HBM4
• FnGuide estimates Q3 operating profit at 76.96 trillion KRW, and Q4 at 87.27 trillion. Compared to Q2's 60.54 trillion, Q3 is about a 27% increase.
• Meritz Securities estimates Q3 DRAM and NAND prices will rise by 22% and 15%, respectively.
• Nvidia's next-generation platform Vera Rubin's HBM4 sales will start from Q3Went through the candlestick charts of BTC and ETH from start to finish, here’s some straightforward analysis
BTC is currently at 80200, the 20-day moving average is 82076, and the 50-day moving average is 81854. The price is below both lines, and what’s worse is the highs: after 84899, the highs are 82060, 81849, 81070, each day lower than the last—a classic bearish alignment.
But bears shouldn’t celebrate too soon. Below, there are supports at 79220, 79377, and 79577—three sharp spikes all piercing the 79200 to 79600 range. Every time it dips there, buyers step in. Also, volume has shrunk by 30% over the last 5 days, meaning the selling pressure is weakening.
So the current situation can be summed up in one sentence: moving averages are pressing from above, support is holding from below, and neither side can decisively break the other.
For going long, I only trust one signal: a volume-backed recovery above 82000. That level is a psychological integer combined with the 20-day moving average. If it breaks above, the bearish structure is broken. The next target above is 83100. Bottom fishing before that is gambling, not trading.
For going short, don’t chase near 80000—it’s too close to support, and the risk-reward ratio isn’t favorable. Either wait for a failed rebound at 82000 to short, or wait for a break below 79200 to follow the trend. If it really breaks, the next dense support zone is between 76600 and 77000.
ETH is weaker, at 2325, still 5 points below its 20-day moving average. 2282 is its critical support; don’t expect it to strengthen first.
The FOMC rate decision is at 2 AM on the 29th. In such a tight range, false breakouts and breakdowns are most likely. Keep your position light and don’t let a single spike make your decision for you.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC $ETH $ENA has something going on today, up nearly 9% in 24h, and volume has picked up, with over 30 million U traded in one day 👀
First, the structure: In the past two days, it has been oscillating between 0.184–0.197, with the 0.196–0.197 line acting as resistance several times but never broken. Last night, a volume surge pushed it straight above that line, reaching around 0.211. In the past few hours, it has been consolidating sideways between 0.201–0.211, with the lower shadows mostly held above 0.201, indicating that the previous resistance is now turning into support.
Funding rate is still slightly negative, so the long positions are not overcrowded.
My own plan:
Direction: Buy on pullback, no chasing highs
Entry: 0.2035–0.2055
Stop loss: 0.1985 (if it falls back below the 0.201 platform, it means the breakout failed)
Target 1: 0.2113 (previous high)
Target 2: 0.218
The current price is very close to the previous high, so chasing directly has a poor risk-reward ratio; therefore, I will wait for a pullback. At Target 1, I will take half off and move the stop loss to breakeven. If it breaks below 0.201 with volume, I won’t hold hard; I will wait for it to return near 0.196 before reassessing.
What do you think, can ENA hold above 0.211 this time?
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice, DYOR
#ENA #ContractStrategy #AltcoinsCan Robinhood's trading growth continue? I'm ready to change my perspective: first, let's see if users are still bringing money in.
It's obviously good to see platform assets increase, but there could be two completely different contributions here. One is new user deposits, and the other is the price appreciation of existing stocks and crypto assets in accounts. When the market is good, both happen together, making the financial reports lively; when the market cools down, the difference becomes clear.
If asset growth mainly relies on market appreciation, that part of the growth is more dependent on the market. Continuous net user deposits better indicate that the platform is capturing real capital migration. Of course, net deposits must also be considered alongside promotional activities and statistical criteria; you can't stop questioning just because you switch metrics.
My expectation for Robinhood is whether it can transform from a "trade when the market comes" app into an account where users are willing to keep their money long-term.
This is much rarer than a sudden spike in monthly trading volume. Trading enthusiasm can rise quickly and disappear just as fast; users willing to leave funds require product, service, and trust to accumulate slowly.
So, if the next financial report shows strong trading revenue, I will be happy. But what would truly make me want to upgrade my judgment is if, after the excitement, users' money continues to flow in. That would indicate the platform has gained more than just a temporary market boom.
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ 一家此前鲜为人知的韩国船东，正在全球最敏感的石油运输通道上书写财富神话。凭借近60亿美元囤积73艘二手超大型油轮（VLCC）的押注，韩国兴亚海运集团（Sinokor Group）已在霍尔木兹海峡油运市场确立近乎垄断的地位——其船队单月运油量超过排名其后三家国家级船东的总和。 今年9月，Sinokor旗下船舶共通过霍尔木兹海峡运输原油1.056亿桶，占当月该海峡石油过境总量的近40%。紧随其后的三家船东——沙特国家航运公司（Bahri）、科威特石油运输公司及阿布扎比国家石油公司旗下航运部门——同期合计运量仅为9730万桶。10月前10天，Sinokor的占比更进一步攀升至逾50%。 一场精心策划的战略豪赌 Sinokor的崛起始于一场业界罕见的大规模二手船收购行动。2026年迄今，Sinokor Maritime已主导二手VLCC收购市场，累计购入73艘VLCC，总耗资近60亿美元，等于全球其余八大油轮买家收购支出的总和。所有73艘船均于今年完成交付。 支撑这场收购狂潮的是全球最大船东地中海航运公司（MSC）的财务背书。MSC今年早些时候收购了Sinokor Maritime 50%的股SK Hynix's Q3 earnings report will be released on October 28. Market consensus expects revenue of about 98.2 trillion KRW, operating profit of 76-77 trillion KRW, and an operating margin approaching 78%, potentially setting a record for the sixth consecutive quarter.
The core focus is on HBM4. The company began mass production and shipments in Q2, with Q3 expected to more clearly reflect contributions related to Nvidia Vera Rubin. High-priced long-term contracts and rising prices for general DRAM are the main supports for maintaining high profit margins.
However, the market is also digesting some concerns: some channels report that HBM4 shipments have been below expectations for two consecutive quarters, involving Rubin's schedule and mass production adjustments; there are voices about backend equipment deliveries being delayed until 2027; Samsung is clearly catching up in HBM4 yield and market share, with Bernstein even estimating that Samsung's Q3 HBM revenue might briefly surpass SK Hynix's.
Conclusion: HBM4 is indeed contributing incremental growth, but in the short term, it looks more like a "structural shift on a high base" rather than a pure volume surge. The earnings report will focus on management's statements regarding HBM4 shipment pace, ASP trends, and 2027 capacity planning. The sustainability of high profit margins still depends on whether the supply-demand gap can continue. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ The "digital gold" consensus of Bitcoin is being repriced, and this time it's not based on narrative but on numbers. If even ETFs and corporate treasuries are quietly changing the BTC holding structure, are you still valuing it based on "decentralized faith"? I noticed a subtle signal while reviewing data these past two days: long-term holders on-chain haven't moved much, but the BTC holdings in centralized custody addresses are climbing. On the surface, it looks like institutional adoption, but from another perspective, the "accessibility" of chips has changed—when more and more coins lie in the hands of regulated custodians, the anti-censorship selling point is being diluted bit by bit. What the market is trading now is more like "compliant BTC" rather than the one described in Satoshi Nakamoto's whitepaper. The bullish logic is clear: after the ETF channel opened, the threshold for traditional funds to allocate BTC dropped to a historic low. With brand effect plus over a decade of network effect, no one can replace it in the short term. Institutional entry has indeed suppressed volatility, making BTC more like a macro asset. Under this path, the price has support, and sentiment has a floor. But the overlooked risks lie in the structure. Hashrate concentrated in a few mining pools, source code authority in a small core developer circle, and ETF custody giving regulators indirect touchpoints—each alone is not fatal, but combined they are cause for caution. More importantly, the potential threat of quantum computing to old address public keys is not a "if it will come" question, but a "can the community coordinate after it comes" question. Decentralization, in the face of upgrades, ironically becomes the heaviest burden. The altcoin side feels this more directly.The afternoon's trend suddenly changed; the bulls were liquidated in the morning, and now BTC has pulled back from 79,686 to 80,206, directly standing back above 80,000. The liquidation list has completely flipped, with the shorts now being selectively liquidated.
Key data:
1️⃣ BTC | About 1.2-hour sample | Total liquidation 77.3721 million U | Short liquidation 77.3721 million U, accounting for 100% | No long liquidation in the sample, all low-position short sellers were trapped by this pullback.
2️⃣ ZEC | About 4.1-hour sample | Total liquidation 22.7813 million U | Short liquidation 14.8422 million U, accounting for 65.15% | Long liquidation 7.9391 million U, current price 1214.52, again near the 1215 threshold. During the rise and fall, shorts were liquidated first.
3️⃣ SOL | About 3.7-hour sample | Total liquidation 264,600 U | Long liquidation 213,400 U | Short liquidation 51,100 U, total volume is still small, no significant liquidation trend in either direction.
This whole morning and noon, both longs and shorts were liquidated once. This is the most frustrating part of the 79,200 to 81,100 range — before the direction emerges, leverage on both sides takes turns paying. Note that this rally was driven by short covering, not spot buying. How far it can go depends on the volume when the US stock market opens tonight.
BTC 79,200 is temporarily holding, but before firmly standing above 81,100, the rebound should still be seen as a short-covering move, not a reversal.Weekend Market Notes: Low Volume Bottoming, Don't Rush to Catch the Falling Knife (｡•̀ᴗ-)✧
BTC dipped to 79,840 over the weekend but bounced back above 80,000, though the trading volume was only half of the 7-day average, a typical low-volume bottoming (￣▽￣)~*. Middle East news has been downgraded to background noise, no longer the main logic. Before the interest rate decision lands, it's highly likely to see low-volume oscillation around 80,000: hold your spot in spot trading and don't fuss; if you're itchy, wait until after Wednesday.
The three moving averages above are pressing down, with the MA30 near 82,900; a rebound to that area will likely be pushed back; the upper boundary of the range at 87,200 is an even bigger ceiling (¬_¬). ZEC shows volume and price not cooperating: it fell from 1,373 to around 1,200, with shrinking volume on rebounds and few chasing the rise; the current price at 1,196 is just a bit above the MA20, RSI at 47.8, neither strong nor overbought. However, it's the only one with a positive 7-day gain; this privacy coin is indeed showing some strength against the trend ✧(≖ ◡ ≖✿).
Don't catch the falling knife near 2,300 on ETH; wait until the whale liquidation line is hit. That on-chain $397 million long whale added $9.21 million margin last night, pushing the liquidation price from 2,256 down to 2,181; current price is 2,327, only $146 away from the critical point, tension is maxed out (°ー°〃).
In short: BTC is low volume waiting for the interest rate decision, ZEC is counter-trend but volume and price lack momentum, ETH is watching the whale's critical point first. This is just a market record, not advice～
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 I originally wanted to open a long position around 80000, but after checking the liquidation chart, I immediately pulled back my hand. It's not that I don't understand the direction, but my position is exactly caught between two layers of mines. Opening a position here means the stop loss will either be triggered or on the way to being triggered. I've been shaken by this kind of sandwich more than once.
The chart is glaringly bright 👀: there's a yellow zone around 81000 overhead, and from 81300 to 81500 there's another resistance; at the bottom around 79700 it's also bright, and from 79000 to 79200 there's another zone. The highest level on the legend marks 36.04 million, with positions stacked waiting to be triggered both above and below. The current price at 80163 is right in the middle; whichever side breaks first will trigger a chain reaction.
Options are even more twisted: among existing open interests, 59.57% are bullish, betting on an upward move; but in daily trading volume, bearish orders account for 52.67%, meaning short-term traders are already buying protection. The latest sell-side depth in the order book is slightly thicker than the buy side, and the thick buy orders from the morning have already flipped. These three factors combined mean the sentiment is bullish in words, protective in action, and there's a selling wall overhead—quite awkward.
My strategy is fixed: I will only go long if it holds above 81500, with a stop loss set below 81000; I won't catch a falling knife below 79700, and will wait to see after the 79000 zone reacts. For ETH, SOL, and ZEC, I only follow BTC's chart; I won't touch any of them before the chart signals. No trades in the sandwich zone—I'd rather miss out than be fuel for the mines above and below 😤Elon Musk warns: Among more than 200 new AI cloud service providers worldwide, only a few may survive in the future, with most going bankrupt or being consolidated.
The most awkward are those companies that switched from Bitcoin mining to AI: IREN, WULF, CIFR, HIVE, etc. They have land, electricity, and mining farms, seemingly holding a strong advantage. But AI data centers are much more expensive than mining farms, GPUs update rapidly, and many haven't stabilized profits yet, already carrying heavy debts.
CoreWeave has about $50 billion in debt, with some bond yields soaring to 15%-16% at one point. As of October 22, short sellers of CoreWeave, IREN, NBIS, and three other AI infrastructure companies have accumulated floating profits of about $6 billion in October.
SpaceX can complete $40 billion in GPU debt financing, relying on independent revenue from Starlink and rocket launches to support its credit. Many Neocloud companies lack this foundation and can only hope to repay debts with future computing power rental income.
Doesn't this feel like the 2000 internet bubble? Back then, many companies that frantically laid fiber and built infrastructure didn't survive until the industry truly prospered...#Middle East crude oil transportation resumes, why do oil prices remain high? As the U.S. midterm elections approach, the market is focusing on how the shift in congressional control will impact crypto regulation. The current Congress's crypto regulatory bills have encountered obstacles, and the outcome will determine whether the new Congress will restart related legislation. If it leans crypto-friendly, it will help clarify the regulatory framework and benefit institutional capital deployment; if regulatory tightening expectations rise, Ethereum's DeFi ecosystem will face greater pressure, typically underperforming Bitcoin. Before the election results are finalized, polling fluctuations will amplify market volatility, with long and short positions being liquidated back and forth. But it is important to understand that the midterm elections are merely a catalyst for the market; the core factors determining the major trends of BTC and ETH remain the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and ETF capital flows. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Trump: "The moment of decision" has arrived, either negotiate or fight. Four possible scenarios before the midterm elections👇
① Continue with rhetoric, no immediate action (most likely)
Starting a war would push up oil prices and increase casualties, which would backfire on the Republicans. Iran also wants to wait for the election results. The market will fluctuate repeatedly with the news.
② Achieve limited diplomatic results
First reach partial consensus on reducing attacks and ensuring shipping safety, leaving difficult issues for after the election. Risk appetite will recover in the short term, but sustainability depends on whether shipping truly improves.
③ Limited strikes to show toughness
If the deadlock harms the tough image, Trump might opt for a quick decisive strike. But the scale of the strike is controlled by the U.S., while the scale of retaliation is not. If Iran restrains itself, the impact will be short; if energy facilities are affected, it will get out of control.
④ Forced escalation due to sudden events (most to guard against)
U.S. military casualties, new Israeli actions, or obstruction of the strait could all ruin the "wait until after the election" plan. Oil prices will rise again, and U.S. stocks and Bitcoin will be sold off first.
Watch closely for three signals: whether there is a joint arrangement, whether shipping improves, and whether there are major casualties.
The election gives Trump the motive to control the situation but does not give him the ability to control the opponent's reaction.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ In short: Q3 depends on whether the fundamentals can be stabilized; HBM4 is not about the present, but about the expected realization of AI storage's second growth curve.#OilFlowsRecover
*Oil flow recovery this week — short summary:*
*What happened:*
- *September rebound was real:* Gulf crude exports *+4.4 mb/d to 13.9 mb/d* in Sep — *>75% of pre-war*. Hormuz total flows *+3.7 mb/d to 10.9 mb/d* (ship-to-ship transfers + East-West pipeline). IEA says global supply 102.3 mb/d in Sep.
- *This week crashed again:* Oct 7 Hormuz flows dropped to *2.72 mb/d from 12.26 mb/d* on Oct 4 due to Houthi attacks. Weekend attacks on Saudi airport + oil facilities. ETH near 2300, BTC holding 80,000: Which one shows support first, and is worth following?
I will first check if BTC holds 80,000 USD, then look at ETH's support at 2300. The reason is simple: if BTC stabilizes at this key level, it indicates that the overall market risk appetite has at least not worsened; ETH bouncing near support might just be a short-term rebound, and entering solely on that could mean buying into a retracement. Currently on OKX spot, BTC has just returned above 80,000, while ETH remains near its 24-hour low, with strength and weakness not yet reversed.
However, "BTC stabilizing first" doesn't mean ETH can't strengthen first. If ETH repeatedly tests but doesn't break below 2300, raises its lows, and reclaims the 24-hour opening price near 2353, while BTC holds 80,000, that would be a higher quality relative strength; if it's just a wick pullback without volume support, I wouldn't call it a confirmed support.
Conversely, if BTC breaks below the 24-hour low near 79,378 and fails to rebound above 80,000, even if ETH temporarily holds 2300, it could be dragged down by the broader market; if ETH effectively breaks below around 2293 and fails to rebound, its own support judgment fails. My observation sequence is BTC first providing the risk bottom line, then ETH confirming the bounce. If ETH reclaims 2353 first and continues to outperform while BTC remains sideways near 80,000, then the "look at BTC first" judgment should be overturned.
$BTC $ETH #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Charging funding fees, positions may become increasingly difficult to hold. In the position update on October 26, Duoganqiu stated that Maji Brother's HYPE short position had an unrealized loss of 2,537,000 U and funding fee income of 1,093,600 U. This record was provided by the author, has not been independently verified, and is not a real-time position. If these figures are consistent in scope, the funding fees can only offset part of the floating loss and cannot be considered a profit for this short position. The income looks considerable, but it does not mean that continuing to hold the position can cover adverse price fluctuations. My view is that having BTC shorts, ETH longs, and HYPE shorts simultaneously does not mean the risk is hedged; divergent trends among different coins may instead concentrate losses on one side. Would you first look at how much funding fee can be collected, or first check if the losing position has shrunk? Source: Duoganqiu https://www.okx.com/zh-hans/orbit/post/91055354823168#Microsoft Azure grows 43%, can AI commercialization accelerate? Azure rose 43% in a single quarter, surpassing 100 billion for the full year for the first time. AI commercialization is no longer a question of "whether it makes sense," but a question of "money actually coming in"—and now, it really is coming in.
Several key signals:
• Copilot paid seats have surged to 30 million, with GitHub Copilot holding 50 million users
• Business backlog stands at $678 billion, with new orders mainly coming from traditional enterprises, not just a few large model providers
• The charging model is shifting from "per headcount" to "per usage," and token consumption can finally be linked to revenue
This indicates one thing: AI is transitioning from showing off capabilities to becoming a regular line item in enterprise IT budgets. This quarter's capital expenditure was $41 billion, with free cash flow declining. The $678 billion order backlog averages 2.3 years to recognize, with only 30% expected to materialize within 12 months—this is "future rainfall," not current profit.
So a more accurate judgment is: Microsoft has proven "people are willing to pay for AI," but has not yet fully proven "every AI revenue stream can consistently generate profit."
The next three observation points are more important than growth itself:
Azure's growth stability around 45%
Copilot renewal rate (not whether they buy, but whether they renew)
Whether unit token cost can continue to be reduced
The inflection point for AI commercialization has indeed arrived, but the profit inflection point is still ahead It's just past 1 PM, I just finished lunch and opened the market screen. Do you feel like BTC is now oscillating up and down and seems to have stabilized, making your hands itch to jump in and bottom-fish? Don't rush to act yet!
Look at the green bars in front on the $BTC chart: there is indeed a net inflow of fifty to sixty million in 1-hour and 2-hour intervals. Retail investors think the opportunity has come and rush in hard, but if you look further right at the long-term data, the 30-day contract net outflow is as high as 7.682 billion, and spot has also lost 1.237 billion. The short-term inflows are all to lure retail investors to take the bags; big money started a crazy retreat a month ago.
Now look at $ETH — this data is even more painful! The short-term 1-hour just saw an inflow of over 80 million, but over 30 days, contract funds have fled 8.595 billion, and spot outflow is 3.784 billion. The capital loss in ETH is even more severe than BTC. Every short-term rebound is providing liquidity for big money to unload.
Finally, look at $SOL — it’s somewhat more resistant to decline, but the 30-day contract has also outflowed nearly 2 billion. The overall trend is still outflow.
Summary: Don’t be fooled by the green bars in front of you for just a few dozen minutes. This is called giving you a little sweetness in the short term while hollowing out your principal in the long term. Big money is cashing out crazily on the rebounds. Without real gold and silver to support the bottom, what can drive the price up? I firmly stay out of the market and watch the show.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议