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On Sunday, I thought it was finally pulling up, but Monday just knocked everyone awake. BTC is back to 79472, ETH back to 2302, SOL at 100.58. Yesterday I still felt I hadn’t bought enough, today I’m glad I didn’t add more, seriously frustrating.
I’m not waiting for this rebound anymore; I want to switch to shorting on the rebound. Especially ETH, it just got back above 2350 last night, didn’t even touch 2370, and then dropped back to 2300. I plan to short a bit when it can’t bounce between 2315–2325, cut losses at 2340, sell some at 2295 first, and watch 2281 for the rest. Chasing shorts now feels awkward since the previous low is right underfoot.
BTC’s 80000 level is lost too, the 20-day moving average is at 80028. I originally wanted to go long here, now I have to see if the rebound can climb back. I’m preparing to short between 79800–80000, and if it goes above 80300, I’ll exit. I’ll take some profit around 79340 and close some longs near 79168. If the previous low really breaks, I’ll keep a small position watching 78500, not risking the whole profit to gamble.
I’m not as eager to trade SOL as ETH for now. Circle minted 250 million USDC today, but even though the coins are minted, SOL still hasn’t reclaimed the 101.2 moving average. Just looking at the news doesn’t cheer me up. I’ll try shorting again if it can’t get above 101–101.2, exit at 101.6, take some profit at 100.3 first, and watch 99.5 for the rest.
I was hoping for funds to come back on Monday over the weekend, but instead got this hit. Now I just want to wait for ETH to bounce back to give me a position, so I won’t complain about it being slow when it rises, or rush to chase when it really drops.#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The most exciting moment in the crypto world this week is about to arrive, as the Federal Reserve's "boot" is about to drop, and the market has already started to tremble in advance. From October 27 to 28, the Federal Reserve will hold the FOMC meeting. The whole market has basically reached a consensus: this time it will most likely hold steady and keep interest rates unchanged. CME data shows that the probability of no rate cut has soared to 90%. The market for Bitcoin is also very honest now, directly dropping 1.2%, with funds all in risk-off mode watching and waiting. But I have to remind my brothers not to think that just because the words "pause rate hikes" come out, the crypto market will take off immediately. This meeting will not release the latest economic forecast; the real highlight is the decision statement and the chairman's press conference at 2 a.m. Beijing time on October 29. Then, on the evening of the 29th, the preliminary GDP for Q3 and the September PCE inflation data will be released. My personal view: The market has long digested the expectation of a "pause in rate hikes." What can really stir things up are the wording in the policy statement and the attitude at the press conference. Inflation remains high, and the economy is quite resilient, so the Fed is in a difficult position. As an old community member said, what everyone really wants to hear is not "pause," but how you explain the path of interest rates going forward: under such high inflation, how long do you plan to maintain high rates? As long as he does not clearly hint at an imminent rate cut, the expectation of "maintaining high rates for a longer time" will hang like the sword of Damocles over everyone's heads Today's assessment: I will continue to remain cautious this week. The Federal Reserve is about to announce its interest rate decision, and the Middle East conflict has added uncertainty to energy supplies. From the perspective of spot ETFs (exchange-traded funds), last week capital favored BTC more, while ETH and SOL continued to see net outflows. BTC's capital situation is relatively better, but institutional buying across the market has not fully returned. On the OKB side, no new staking demand has been confirmed. 1. ETF: BTC still had inflows throughout the week but weakened in the last two days. Last week's (October 19–23) capital situation: * BTC: net inflow of $301.2 million; net outflow of $137.9 million on the 23rd. * ETH: net outflow of $220.7 million; slight net inflow of $4.4 million on the 23rd. * SOL: approximately net outflow of $17.6 million; disclosed funds on the 23rd totaled zero, data not yet fully consolidated. BTC's purchases in the first three days were not completely offset by redemptions in the last two days, but the continuous inflows did not persist. ETH turned slightly positive on a single day but has not changed the overall weekly outflow. SOL data is incomplete, so no judgment on the direction on the 23rd yet. My view: BTC capital is relatively more stable but the return flow is not sustained; ETH and SOL remain weak. 2. Middle East conflict escalates, pay more attention to energy supplies this week. The conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi forces has intensified. Saudi Arabia stated it intercepted missiles and drones targeting Riyadh and the south, and the Saudi stock market fell significantly. What concerns me more is whether oil facilities and shipping will be affected. If supply continues to be threatened, energy prices #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
The news about Hynix's special dividend basically means they made money selling Kioxia and are sharing the big gains with shareholders.
But the company itself announced that they are still considering it and nothing is finalized yet. This is quite subtle—leaking news before the earnings report is a typical expectation management tactic.
Looking at the market, the US stock night session is hovering around 137, and the low point near 130 from a few days ago has held.
But don’t just look at the dividend; the yield is only about 1.8%, not enough to rush in just for the dividend.
The real key is that buybacks have stopped, so the support buying is gone, and there’s a lot of overhead supply trapped above.
Going long at this level is a bet on Wednesday’s earnings beating expectations plus the official dividend announcement. But the news has already leaked, and the stock price has bounced from 127,000 KRW to around 137 USD, so the short-term positive effect is about to be realized.
If you want to trade, wait for the earnings to land and see if the market "buys the rumor, sells the fact" or if real money keeps pushing it higher. $CT This 20x short position has been held from 0.2885 down to 0.1602, with an unrealized profit of 889.42%, the logic is very clear:
1. The TGE and listing benefits have been completely exhausted. On September 30, TGE occurred and it was listed on Binance Alpha, OKX, and others, expectations were overdrawn, early chips and high-point buyers have dried up liquidity.
2. The token model has a heavy original sin. Total supply is fixed at 1 billion with no inflation, the team holds 22% + investors 28%, totaling 50%, all subject to long-term lock-up constraints, the market fears future unlocking and selling pressure.
3. No value capture. Officially, CT is clearly only a governance and allocation token, with no equity, no debt, no profit sharing/dividend rights.
4. Technical breakdown triggered a stampede. After breaking the support zone, long positions were forcibly liquidated, accelerating the decline in a thin market.
Next: support is seen at 0.15, then down to 0.14. Resistance first at 0.1602, then up to 0.19, 0.2885.
Judgment: Holding 0.15 may lead to a rebound to 0.1602, but without dividends and pure governance narrative, no major bullish catalyst is expected before new triggers. If 0.15 is broken down, the short position continues to target 0.14.
Currently holding, first reduce leverage. Whether 0.1602 can be reclaimed is more important than the long-short direction. $BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ The explosive profits in Q3 were contributed by HBM4's "high price" rather than "volume increase"; what the market truly bought into was the combination of "HBM4 high price × universal DRAM/NAND across-the-board price hikes," not the shipment volume of HBM4 itself. Last night I was still waiting for 81000, but this morning I’m showing you 79472 directly. ETH2302, SOL100.58, that little rebound momentum is gone again. Damn, the most annoying thing is every time it rallies it looks promising, but it turns out to be fake.
I’m going to drop the idea of going long for now. BTC’s 15-minute 20 MA is at 80028, MACD is still going down, 79340 isn’t far from the previous low of 79168, so chasing shorts now makes no sense. I want to wait for a rebound between 79800–80000 that fails, then open a small short position, with 80300 as the stop loss. If it drops to 79350, I’ll take some profit first, and then watch 79170. If the previous low is really lost, I’ll keep a little to test 78500. If it’s not here, I’ll just bet on a crash.
ETH is even weaker this time; the 20 MA at 2325 is already well above, and it only bounced a few points near 2300, showing no real buying strength. I want to wait for a short between 2315–2325, cut losses at 2340, first watch 2295, then 2281. If it doesn’t bounce, I won’t chase to avoid shorting above the previous low and getting stopped out by a random spike.
I’m not touching SOL longs for now. The price hasn’t even reclaimed the 20 MA at 101.2. I’d rather wait to see if it can’t bounce between 101–101.2 before shorting, with 101.6 as stop loss. If it drops to 100.3, I’ll reduce a bit, and then try 99.5 with the rest.
I’ll pick ETH for these trades first, won’t open all positions at once. Last night I wanted to catch the rebound, but since the rebound went bad today, I’m changing my mind. Don’t keep adding just to prove you weren’t wrong yesterday. Now I’m just afraid it won’t rebound and will drop straight down, so I’d rather watch than chase the last leg down again.$BTC has now lost the 80,000 level.
On the news front, there is pressure from both sides: US-Iran risks pushing oil prices, inflation concerns returning, and easing rate cut expectations cooling down; this week is the central bank super week, so everyone is watching first. On the capital side, ETFs have had net outflows for two consecutive weeks, with over 500 million exiting in the past two days; however, retail investors' 30-day net inflow has jumped from 5.5 billion to 10.75 billion, while whales have decreased from 5.9 billion to 3.8 billion — retail is buying, big players are stepping back. The sentiment index is 50, neutral, neither panicking nor optimistic.
Technically: the 80,500–81,000 range above has been repeatedly rejected, and the 85,150–87,500 range is even stronger resistance; below, watch 79,170–79,600 first, if lost then 78,000–78,600. Short-term 15-minute chart is bearish, with selling volume at 65.5%; but the 1-hour and daily charts show low confirmation, RSI/MACD are not oversold, so it’s not a full synchronized decline. Daily chart shows four consecutive bearish candles, weekly chart three consecutive bearish candles, moving averages are pressing down.
Most notable is the sharp contraction in volatility: the 30-day price spread has narrowed from 13% to 6%, stuck in the 80,000–86,000 range for 9 consecutive days; the 365-day moving average is key support, looking up to 86,000, watching if the moving average holds below.
In short: the bearish logic is more consistent, but a full decline hasn’t happened yet, and there will be fluctuations around 80,000. In the short term, watch 79,170–79,600; if it holds, consolidation can continue, if lost, the bearish trend may spread; the breakout depends on this week’s central bank decisions and core PCE.#Robinhood trading business growth: can it continue? Recently, I've been looking at Robinhood, and the trading business growth is actually still ongoing. Q2 trading revenue rose 44% year-over-year to $776 million, stock trading volume surged 85% to 956 billion, options also hit a record high, but crypto has remained weak. What's really interesting is their own Chain, which just launched in July; Q3 DEX trading volume reached 65 billion, tokenized stocks 13.7 billion, and network fee revenue 5.1 billion, even surpassing Ethereum. However, these numbers are somewhat inflated, with more than half the fees concentrated in 12 days of congestion, and after subsequent gas adjustments, they will most likely decline. The old business is stable, the new chain is in trial and error, and tomorrow's Q3 earnings report will reveal how much real value the chain has contributed. $BTC 🔥The most interesting part is here! CZ mentioned again that "Bitcoin is dead," and the last time the market heard similar reassurance, BTC later surged over 40%!
📊 On June 9, BTC once dropped to around $61,000, market sentiment was low, and CZ posted a reminder not to panic. Later, the market rose, and this statement was repeatedly mentioned by many.
🐂 Now CZ talks again about the old topic "Bitcoin is dead," and many naturally wonder: Could it be that another opportunity is coming?
🧠 But the market never runs on just one sentence. Similar sentiment does not mean the same macro environment; past gains cannot be directly taken as the target this time. What really matters is whether BTC can stop falling and stabilize, whether funds are flowing back, and if there is sustained buying after a breakout.
🛡️ I tend to treat CZ's remarks as an emotional indicator rather than a direct entry signal. Opportunities may exist, but position sizing and stop-loss must still be managed by yourself.
Brothers, if extreme panic occurs again in BTC, would you choose to build positions gradually or wait for a trend reversal before entering? #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK Hynix Q3 earnings report is coming, can HBM4 boost profitability? Just came across that batch of liquidation data, and my heart skipped a beat 💫 Is this the end of the panic, or the mid-stage of the decline? In the past 24 hours, the entire market saw about $170 million in liquidations, with longs accounting for $150 million and shorts only a little over $20 million. This ratio is very unusual, indicating that leveraged longs are being systematically liquidated—not just sporadic stop-losses, but mass exits. The 1-hour timeframe is even more interesting: BTC shorts liquidated 477,500, while longs only 27,000, indicating that some who chased shorts during the dip got bitten by the rebound; but looking at the 4-hour and 12-hour frames, long liquidations dominate again, with ETH 4-hour long liquidations at 4.68 million versus shorts at only 630,000, and CORE longs completely wiped out. The rhythm here is a complex cleansing: first killing longs, then baiting shorts, then returning to continue clearing longs. My own feeling is that sentiment has shifted from "adding on dips" to "survive first, then talk." This shift is more worth watching than the price itself. From a trend phase perspective, I tend to classify this as the first deep divergence after the start, rather than the distribution end. There are three reasons: first, 24-hour long liquidations account for nearly 90%, a typical characteristic of leveraged long liquidation, often forcibly loosened at the most crowded sentiment points; second, ETH's 4-hour data shows longs being liquidated more severely than BTC, indicating that speculative positions in secondary mainstream sectors are more fragile, usually a signal of divergence rather than trend termination confirmation; third, the complete long liquidation of small-cap assets like CORE means leverage in marginal assets is being squeezed out first, and risk appetite is moving toward the coreNext week, two major core domestic data points will be released simultaneously: PMI + Industrial Enterprise Profits
The short-term pricing power of A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and commodities is handed over to macro data, with the market continuing to shrink in volume and oscillate. Many are busy heavily betting on direction. However, institutional funds have long prepared multiple scenario simulations.
The current market game is no longer simply about whether stimulus will be introduced, but whether domestic demand can continue to recover and whether corporate profits are truly warming up.
If both PMI and profits significantly exceed expectations and strengthen, recovery expectations will rapidly heat up, and funds will flow from high-dividend stocks to cyclical and growth stocks; but overheated economic data will also compress easing space, causing small-cap stocks driven by liquidity to spike and then fall back.
Conversely, if data continues to weaken and the recovery logic is falsified, the market will immediately enter a pessimistic narrative. Even if policy easing expectations rise, high-valuation themes will first face valuation cuts, and funds will flock to defensive assets.
The most favorable market scenario is a weak recovery combination: PMI moderately rising, profits marginally improving but not overheating. The economy is not too bad, leaving enough room for policy, allowing risk appetite and liquidity to be balanced.
Do not prematurely bet on data to win or lose; focus on observing the immediate reactions of northbound flows, government bonds, and futures after the data release. The expectation gap is the main line, and the capital redistribution after data release is the real opportunity window.#Middle East crude oil transportation resumes, why do oil prices remain high?
The restoration of transportation repairs the "flow,"
Oil pricing is based on "deliverable, bufferable, insurable barrels."
The restored "quality" is far from normalized.
Delivery costs remain high: global crude oil transportation costs have risen from about $3/barrel to over $20/barrel; VLCC freight from the Gulf to East Asia has surged from $1.6/barrel to $42.4/barrel.
The landed price still includes freight, insurance, and transshipment premiums.
Inventory buffers are extremely thin: OECD government-controlled oil stocks have dropped to the lowest since 1989; U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are about 412.5 million barrels, approximately 3% below the five-year average. Even a slight supply reduction is enough to support prices.
Risk premiums remain intact: Brent forward spreads imply an average risk premium of $22/barrel, the second highest on record; the Strait and pipelines still occasionally face attacks.
Structural damage remains: Gulf production capacity is still about 20% below pre-conflict levels, Iranian output has halved; Middle East refined product exports have only recovered to about 60%, diesel shortages are expected to continue until 2027.
With no reduction in freight surcharges, no replenishment of inventories, and no removal of risk premiums, the recovery in transportation volume alone is unlikely to pull oil prices back to pre-conflict levels. @OKX中文 @OKX星球 $BTC #SK Hynix Q3 earnings report is coming, can HBM4 boost profitability? The market was weak today, with BTC down 1.3% and ETH down 2.0% in 24h (CoinGecko), yet ENA bucked the trend by climbing onto CoinGecko's hot search list, up 4.4% in 24h, priced at $0.2037, with a 24h trading volume of about $387 million; OKX spot ENA-USDT rose 4.7% in 24h.
The hype comes from news: USDe launched on Aave V3 via X Layer and OKX Wallet; previously, the fee switch proposal was approved, but buybacks will only start when USDe supply reaches $7.5 billion, with official data at $4.94 billion by the end of September.
My view: The volume is on par with the past week, with no obvious surge, more like relative strength and narrative-driven in a weak market. The real fundamental variable is whether USDe's scale can grow; the buyback trigger is still far away. $ENA The Ahr999 indicator shows BTC is approaching the bottom-buying zone. Should you buy the dip at this bottom?
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
The Bitcoin Ahr999 bottom-buying indicator dropped from 0.56 at the beginning of the month to 0.5, getting closer to the 0.45 bottom line.
Only below 0.45 is considered a historically undervalued zone; 0.45 to 1.2 is suitable for dollar-cost averaging, and above 1.2 is better to wait and watch.
Historically, it has fallen below 0.45 for 731 days.
I believe now is not the time to heavily buy the dip; light long positions or dollar-cost averaging are more appropriate.
The main reasons are threefold:
1. The indicator hasn't truly fallen below 0.45 yet, only approaching it. Historically, the best buying points mostly appear after breaking below.
2. The price is stuck around $80,000, fluctuating repeatedly. There is support below but strong resistance above, so short-term volatility is likely to continue.
3. The macro environment is still suppressing — the Federal Reserve's rate path is unclear, oil prices and geopolitical risks remain, the market is generally cautious, and funds are hesitant to enter aggressively.
Next $BTC trend analysis:
Short term, watch if $79,000–$80,000 can hold.
If it holds, it will likely continue to fluctuate in this range, waiting for the FOMC and subsequent data to decide the direction;
If it breaks down, it may test lower support, and the indicator is more likely to truly enter the bottom-buying zone.
On a rebound, $81,000–$83,000 is the first resistance.
Overall, it is still a "dollar-cost averaging friendly, heavy positions cautious" phase. Don't rush to go all in; buying gradually in batches is more stable.$XAU short-term support is around 3950
This level, if not broken, should still allow for a technical rebound
Short-term resistance is in the 4040-60 range
4230 USD is a key confirmation level to judge whether this round of correction has truly ended; gold price needs to retake this level to say the technical repair is basically complete
On the news front, suppressive logic and supportive logic coexist
Brent crude oil rose more than 6% last week, closing at 117 USD/barrel, with the market pricing in nearly a 90% probability of a Fed rate hike in December. In a high interest rate environment, US Treasuries and the dollar have both safe-haven attributes and clear yields; during risk aversion, funds tend to flow into US Treasuries rather than gold, which is the key reason gold has recently fallen despite rising risk aversion.
ETF long-term funds flow counter to the trend: In Q3, global gold ETF net inflows reached a record $31 billion, with holdings rising to a historic high of 4256 tons. Long-term allocation funds view the pullback as a strategic buying window rather than a signal of trend reversal.
The long-term hedging logic of geopolitical and fiscal factors remains intact: Policy uncertainty after the US midterm elections, French fiscal concerns, AI financing pressures, and other risk factors persist. Gold's function as a hedge against systemic risks in a multipolar world has not disappeared; it is just temporarily suppressed by interest rate logic. Franklin moved $150 million onto the XRP Ledger, but XRP remains unmoved.
Observation: On October 22, Franklin Templeton issued about $150 million worth of tokenized money market fund shares on the XRP Ledger.
The on-chain shares increased from about 48 million to nearly 193 million, second only in scale to Ripple's own stablecoin RLUSD.
However, the entire $150 million went into the same wallet; the signer and issuer are the same group, and the investors have not yet been disclosed.
XRP is still hovering around 1.29 today and did not rise over the weekend.
My view: This is "using the XRP chain," not "buying XRP." The fund shares themselves do not require holding the coin.
The growth of on-chain RWA is a good long-term story but is unlikely to directly translate into buying pressure in the short term.
Before Wednesday's FOMC, the default is to observe and not chase.
Invalidation conditions: More institutions follow suit, and XRP volume breaks and holds above 1.35, indicating the market is starting to price in this narrative, then I am wrong.
Conversely, if it falls below 1.25, this positive news will be overshadowed by overall market sentiment.
Do you think institutional adoption on-chain will eventually impact the coin price? Will it or won't it?
$XRP
#XRP #RWA #TokenizedFund Holding steady then breaking down again! Is it going to fall further?
Market divergence suddenly emerges.
After BTC held the 80,000 mark over the weekend, retail investor enthusiasm clearly increased. Binance's retail BTC inflows hit a 6-month high, with 30-day cumulative small deposits jumping directly from 5.5 billion to 10.75 billion USD.
Interestingly, whales are acting in the opposite way, with deposit volumes continuously declining. Simply put, large holders are slowly cashing out while retail investors are buying in along the trend. This kind of long-short mismatch tends to push the market into a choppy tug-of-war.
On the macro side, two institutional views are also noteworthy.
✅ Goldman Sachs predicts the Fed will pause rate hikes in October but will raise rates one last time in December, directly extinguishing short-term market hopes for rate cuts. High interest rates will persist longer, which is not a friendly signal for crypto assets.
✅ On the other hand, DBS Bank suggests that with safe-haven funds flowing in, the 10-year US Treasury yield could fall back to 4.8%. A decline in Treasury yields theoretically provides some breathing room for risk assets.
On one side, retail investors are actively entering while large holders quietly retreat, causing capital divergence. On the other, Fed rate hike expectations and Treasury yield decline expectations offset each other. BTC is now stuck in this contradictory environment.
In the short term, it’s hard to see a clear one-sided big move; the 80,000 level will be tested repeatedly.
Retail investors entering en masse often bring overheated sentiment, but without large holder capital support, selling pressure above can emerge at any time. From an operational perspective, avoid blindly chasing highs; in a choppy market, the risk of repeatedly stepping on the rhythm is significant. Continuing to track $PONS, recent daily buybacks are roughly 40,000 to 60,000, while V1 fees in the past 24 hours are about $7,100, and around $65,000 in the past 7 days — buybacks sometimes exceed the daily V1 revenue. The position's open interest is about 21.6 million U, almost flat in the short term, and the fee rate is also stable.
There is no significant increase now; the data basically reflects sentiment. It can still be considered a self-selected bottom-fishing coin, but it is not suitable at the moment. $HYPE
An old buddy told me that a whale dumped 494,300 HYPE on Coinbase, worth 37.83 million USD, a sign of a dump, run fast. I didn't buy that.
If it were really a dump, the price wouldn't react by just 1%. HYPE is now 75.6, down 1.17% in 24 hours, while BTC dropped 1.5% in the same period, so it's more stable than the market. The holding volume is 1.3 million, and the funding rate is still positive, with no signs of longs retreating.
Of course, I might be proven wrong; I can never guess a whale's plan. But the market isn't cooperating now. If 490,000 really get sold, someone has to be able to absorb it first. I'll just watch and not act.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $SOL
SOL hit a low of 100.37 today, just a few cents shy of the whole number level, now hovering around 100.9. BTC has already fallen below 80,000, currently at 79,700; everyone can see the market's mood.
At this moment, the meme coin Kimchi on the Solana chain once surged past a market cap of 15 million USD, up 47% in 24 hours. The market is playing dead while the small-cap tokens on-chain are partying; I've seen this combo a few times, and it's basically not a good sign—the hot money in the market hasn't exited but only dares to gamble in small caps.
I tend to think that even if the 100 level breaks, don't rush to buy the dip. The kind of pump Kimchi is getting attracts only fast in-and-out short-term money, which can't support a trend. The real test for SOL isn't today's spike but whether it can keep up if BTC continues to drift down in the coming days.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 A brief analysis of BTC short-term trends (strategy suggestions) from Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Wave Theory, volume-price relationship, order flow, and price action
Comprehensive judgment
Dow Theory confirms spring bottom failure, downward structure resumes
Chan Theory center [79,900-80,900] shifts down, no buy point
Wave Theory Y' wave ⑤ sub-wave extension, target 78,300-78,900
Volume-price relationship shows selling pressure exhaustion but absence of buyers, waiting for volume increase and directional candlestick
Order flow extremely oversold, 78,400 old POC is the ultimate value area
Price action shows a slow decline forming a bottom, 79,700 is the last defense line.
Six-dimensional comprehensive: short-term bearish bias pointing to 78,300-78,900, but all exhaustion signals (declining Delta, lowest volume, deep discount) suggest the "last drop" is near. The gain or loss of 79,700 will determine whether it is a "panic volume bottom" or a "slow decline continuation".
$BTC #星球日报 $BTC is around 80K, with a dip during the night. Everyone has been looking for various reasons, such as a poor macro environment, a decrease in stablecoin supply, and so on.
One thing is certain: the chips are already highly concentrated, and the probability of large fluctuations ahead is continuously increasing.
Let's review BTC's history again. After the bear-to-bull transition, when BTC reclaims the 365D SMA, in past bull market cycles, except for the 2020 COVID black swan event where it briefly broke below, there was no effective breakdown in other phases.
Currently, the 365D SMA is about $77,694. Of course, this cycle has a difference from the past: after BTC stood above the 365D SMA, it hasn't rapidly pulled away for a long time like before, but has been oscillating repeatedly near the moving average. This point is indeed worth continued observation.
But so far, I believe BTC's early bull structure has not significantly deteriorated.
Currently, the STH-RP is about $75,695. In my view, the real reason to start being pessimistic is if BTC effectively breaks below the STH-RP and fails to recover for several consecutive days. Before that, I think it's still too early to be pessimistic now. Don't wait for the “altcoin season” anymore. The truth in Q4 2026 is: all ETF channels are open, but the price is flat at 80,000 — this is not a bear market, liquidity is just realigning.
Bitcoin spot ETFs still saw a net outflow of $314 million in October, and Ethereum ETFs bled even more, with a monthly outflow of $1.18 billion. On the other hand, Swiss FINMA approved Europe's first legally recognized Bitcoin spot ETF (BBIT) on October 20, with segregated custody, launching on SIX in November. Meanwhile, the SEC is planning to relax restrictions on investment advisors directly custodianing crypto assets. The gates are opening, but the flow of funds is not evenly distributed across all pools.
RWA is no longer a concept; it is cash flow. BlackRock's on-chain U.S. Treasury yields 4.5%~5% annually, and Ondo's tokenized government bond products have a collateralization rate as high as 95%. JPMorgan's JPMD deposit tokens are already piloting on public chains. This is not a “narrative,” but traditional finance's balance sheets moving onto the blockchain.
The privacy sector is exploding silently. ZEC has risen about 25 times in the past 18 months, not driven by memes, but by a structural return of privacy demand after hacker incidents.
Dan Tapiero said a big truth: Bitcoin’s long-term target is 1 million, but the window for 100x returns has closed. The next Alpha is not about “what to buy that will rise the most,” but about “who is generating real on-chain revenue” — fees from perp DEXs, interest flows from RWA, settlement fees from Agent execution layers. Narratives can deceive, but cash flow cannot.$SAND brothers, the one-hour chart for SAND shows the downtrend channel is about to end, and the market is starting to consolidate and contract, likely to rebound soon.
I entered a light long position around 0.047, betting on a rebound. Although the overall major trend is still bearish, the bears have nearly exhausted here. Once funds come in, the rebound strength won't be weak.
The short-term target is around 0.05, which is the previous resistance level. The current low at 0.04705 is the key defense point. As long as this low isn't broken further, the channel has a chance to break upward.
However, be aware that this is just a battle within the downtrend channel, not a direct reversal. If the support is smashed later, this contraction and consolidation will fail, and the price will continue downward.
This coin belongs to the metaverse sector, with high market elasticity. It's only suitable for small positions to try out, but it should be able to rise BTC's current market situation is quite interesting. Retail investors are frantically shorting right now. If this continues, the main players will probably start a big squeeze:
In the past day, shorts have surged by 15 percentage points. The short ratio is now as high as 71%, with longs only at 29%. This is classic—when everyone thinks the price will drop and rushes to short, the price often stops falling. Around 79,300, there is clearly capital supporting the bottom, and the momentum to push the price down is weakening.
Between 81,400 and 82,000, there is a dense cluster of high-leverage short positions, which is basically fuel prepared for the main players. As soon as the price pushes up a bit and breaks through 81,400, a short squeeze will occur, directly driving the price higher. So the most likely scenario now is some consolidation and grinding, then a sudden rally to blow out those shorts above.
Now, about my personal short-term trading plan:
I absolutely will not chase shorts at this level. Shorting here is like dancing on the edge of a cliff. If you want to go long, you can try a light position around 80,000, or wait for a pullback to about 79,600 to add a bit. Always set a stop loss, placing it below 79,000. If it breaks below, it means my judgment was wrong, and I’ll cut losses and exit.
Looking upward, the first target is 81,400. Once it breaks and holds above that, it will likely reach 82,000. When it really reaches the 81,400 to 82,000 range, if it stalls, consider reducing positions or exiting. If it breaks through, expect a nice rally. #ThisWeek Elon Musk speaks out: Over 200 AI computing power companies worldwide are about to face a major reshuffle🚨
In the Neocloud (new AI cloud) sector, only a few may survive in the future, while most will go bankrupt or be consolidated.
The most awkward are those mining companies that shifted from Bitcoin mining to AI—IREN, WULF, CIFR, HIVE, etc.—which have land, power, and mining farms, and thought they found a second spring, but instead ran into a financing winter.
The business model is simple: throw money at buying GPUs, build data centers, then rent computing power to OpenAI, Microsoft. But the problem is—
AI data center costs are far higher than traditional mining farms
GPU upgrades happen extremely fast, posing high asset depreciation risks
Many projects haven't stabilized profits yet but are already burdened with huge debts
The data is alarming:
CoreWeave carries about $50 billion in debt, with some bond yields soaring to 15%-16%
As of October 22, short sellers of CoreWeave, IREN, NBIS, and three others have made about $6 billion in floating profits in October
SpaceX can complete $40 billion GPU financing, relying on independent revenue from Starlink and rocket business as credit backing
But many Neocloud companies lack such assets and can only hope to repay debts with future computing power rental income.
History is eerily similar. In 2000, during the internet bubble, companies that frantically laid fiber and built infrastructure mostly didn't survive to see the industry's true prosperity.
Now, the same script may be replaying in the AI computing power sector.The input of this information is very clear: According to Bloomberg, as the U.S. midterm elections approach, AI and corruption have become focal points. Trump's crypto businesses are being questioned by the Democratic Party and some Republicans. The Democrats also view his stock trading and crypto business profits during his tenure as examples of using the presidential position for personal gain.
From a code review perspective, my judgment is: this seems more like a political trust risk and not yet industry regulation enforcement. The controversy will bring the question of "whether crypto projects serve the public interest" to the forefront. Crypto businesses linked to politicians are most likely to be magnified; institutions and ordinary users will also pay more attention to conflicts of interest, information disclosure, and compliance boundaries. If this is seen only as positive or negative, it might mix the public opinion layer and the business layer into one bug.
If I were a maintainer, I would continue to watch two things: whether the criticism turns into specific restrictions, and whether it affects the actual operation of related businesses. Please help review if there are any flaws in my judgment: will this controversy first damage the trust in politically connected crypto projects, or could it spread to the entire crypto industry?$TSLA
Gross profit growth, so why did operating profit decline?
Tesla's gross profit in Q3 was $5.494 billion, compared to $5.054 billion in the same period last year; operating expenses were $4.776 billion, up from $3.430 billion last year; as a result, operating profit dropped from $1.624 billion to $718 million. The improvement in gross profit was offset by faster-growing expenses.
This does not mean all investments are ineffective, but it implies that AI, R&D, and business expansion require higher revenue or stronger profit contributions to form a return loop. Looking only at gross margin misses the constraints at the expense level.
If future revenue and gross profit growth begin to outpace expense growth, operating leverage will improve; if expenses continue to grow faster, expectations for profit recovery should be lowered rather than explaining valuation solely by new product attention. Brothers, this funding rate chart clearly explains the crowding of longs and shorts.
The current funding rate is 0.007%, positive, meaning longs are continuously paying shorts. Looking at the timeline—from late September to mid-October, the funding rate fluctuated repeatedly between positive and negative, with three obvious negative periods: early October, October 13, and that deep green bar on October 20, which directly dropped to -0.005%.
The pattern is clear: every time the funding rate turns negative (shorts paying longs), it marks a short-term bottom area, followed by a price rebound. Because a negative rate means shorts are crowded, once the price stabilizes, short covering fuels the rebound.
But now? After that deep green bar on October 20, the funding rate quickly turned positive and has continued rising to the 0.008%-0.01% range, recently maintaining a high level. What does this indicate? After shorts were washed out by the October 20 rebound, longs started aggressively adding positions again, making the funding rate expensive once more.
Looking at three indicators together: long-short ratio 2.08 (67% retail longs), open interest at a high of 30,000 BTC, and funding rate 0.007% positive and rising. These three signals resonate—longs are too crowded, paying to be long, just waiting to be harvested.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC Index 54 Neutral Mask: Three Types of Capital, Three Types of Waiting
Index 54 appears “neutral,” but the market is diverging: BTC at 80226, ETH falling below 2325, ZEC benefiting from the NU7 upgrade with a net inflow of $41.1 million, standing at 1185. Some are waiting for volatility to narrow before a breakout, some are forced near liquidation by deleveraging, and others are betting on the privacy veteran coin.
📌 $BTC: Volatility has narrowed to 6%, direction is in countdown. Slight drop of 0.77%, 30-day price spread shrank from 13% to 6%, stuck between 80,000–86,000 for 9 consecutive days, rebounded after touching the 365-day moving average yesterday. 86,000 is resistance, the 365-day moving average is the defense line, 80,000–81,000 is the accumulation zone.
📌 $ETH: Deleveraging nearing the end, risks remain. At 2324, down 1.39%, Binance open interest decreased by $1.3 billion. Last night’s low was 2282, a $400 million long whale is only $30 away from liquidation; breaking below 2245 could trigger liquidation intensity up to $561 million.
📌 ZEC: NU7 countdown. At 1185, down 1.78%, but weekly net inflow exceeds $41.1 million. Upgrade around November 5, block time reduced from 75 to 25 seconds, with 96.6% support; the old Sprout pool with about 22,000 ZEC faces soft freeze and must be transferred within 11 days.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 🚨 Black Monday alert? What market risks should be watched before October 26?
The original text believes that the global financial market is facing multiple pressures:
→ Geopolitical risks between the US and Iran are heating up
→ Oil prices are highly volatile, inflationary pressures may resurface
→ US Treasury holdings and overseas demand in Japan and China are under scrutiny
→ Rising US Treasury yields may push up global financing costs
→ The high interest rate environment continues to suppress stocks, real estate, and crypto assets
If these factors accumulate, market volatility could indeed further intensify.
The logic is simple: rising oil prices may drive up inflation, inflationary pressure will affect interest rate expectations; if US Treasury yields continue to rise, risk assets may face greater pressure, and $BTC will also find it difficult to remain completely unaffected.
However, it should be noted that the original text’s claims about "Black Monday," "massive crash," and specific US Treasury sell-off amounts need further verification and should not be taken as established facts.
What really matters is not blind panic, but checking positions, controlling leverage, and preparing risk management in advance.🚨$BTC still couldn't hold 80,000
Twice over the weekend it was pulled back near 79,146, I thought 80,000 could hold for a while. But this morning at 9 AM, a bearish candle smashed down to 79,340, now hovering around 79,500, the rebound is weak, the hourly chart hasn't even touched 80,000.
My view: 80,000 has turned from support into resistance. Funding rate is still positive (about +0.006%), bulls haven't really fled. The Fed meeting is on Tuesday and Wednesday, big money likely won't rush to go long in advance.
Key levels:
· 79,950-80,100: previous platform and round number support, break below this
· 80,480: this morning's 6 AM rebound high, if it breaks above here, I'll admit I'm wrong
· 79,150: weekend low
· 78,600: next level down
My plan:
· Direction: short on rebound
· Entry: 79,950-80,100
· Stop loss: 80,480
· Target 1: 79,150
· Target 2: 78,600
If it doesn't rebound and goes straight down, I won't chase shorts. If volume pushes back above 80,500, this trade is invalid, possibly a false breakdown. Volatility will be high around the Fed meeting, keep position size small.
Do you think 80,000 can be reclaimed?
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice, DYOR
#BTC #ContractStrategy #FederalReserve#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
DRAM and NAND ASPs continue to rise (Q3 DRAM ASP is expected to increase by about 20% quarter-over-quarter, NAND also rises significantly), with AI inference and data center demand driving tight supply and demand. This is the core support for nearly 80% operating profit margin. Some analysts have already lowered their 2027 HBM operating profit margin expectations (for example, from about 80% down to around 60%).Are gold mining stocks possibly nearing the end of a phase of selling?
Look at the data for $GDX:
About 92% of component stocks have fallen below the 50-day moving average
About 90% of component stocks have fallen below the 200-day moving average
In the past 21 trading days, the proportion of stocks falling below the 50-day moving average has increased by 80 percentage points
This is a very clear oversold signal.
Previously, similar market conditions appeared in March and December 2024. In the following month, $GDX rebounded by 21.5% and 15.4%, respectively.
Of course, past rebound magnitudes do not guarantee a repeat this time, but when most stocks are sold off, continuing to short requires more caution.
The market often begins to nurture opportunities at its most pessimistic moments.
Gold mining stocks are worth continuous tracking, and so is $BTC; the key is to wait for signals, not to guess the bottom. #SpaceX raises $40 billion, Musk warns of AI cloud loan cutoffs
The boss has something to say
On October 25, Musk made a big move and also sounded the alarm. SpaceX secured $40 billion in GPU debt financing to purchase AI chips delivered in the first half of 2027. But he also warned that the debt market has almost stopped financing AI data center companies lacking other income sources, and over 200 emerging AI cloud providers are expected to face bankruptcy or consolidation.
I believe this is a clear signal that the AI infrastructure frenzy is beginning to "de-leverage." SpaceX can get $40 billion because it has Starlink and launch business as a backstop, but neoclouds relying solely on computing power leasing can no longer borrow money. Some comments say this increasingly resembles the 2008 housing bubble. The blunt truth is that in a high-interest-rate environment, business models that burn cash without cash flow support are being abandoned by capital.
The impact on crypto is indirect. If AI infrastructure financing breaks down, triggering systemic liquidity contraction in the tech sector, risk assets will come under pressure, and BTC will hardly remain unaffected.
On the market, SPCX dipped slightly by 0.26%, with funds on the sidelines.
BTC had a waterfall drop last night; now we watch if the 80,000 level can hold. If it doesn't hold, expect a deeper correction, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Do not chase the rally or sell in panic; set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC US Semiconductor Weekly Expectations Summary
Storage
• WDC Western Digital: FY2027 Q1 revenue $4.38B, adjusted EPS $4.64, both exceeding consensus expectations, and raised Q2 guidance to revenue $5.0–5.2B, EPS $5.60–6.00; target prices diverged after earnings, JPMorgan $600→$650 (+8.3%), Citi $740→$660 (-10.8%), TD Cowen $540→$430 (-20.4%), UBS $470→$435 (-7.4%).
• Storage spot prices showed no significant fluctuation this week: DDR4 +0.84%, NAND -1.28%.
Semiconductor Chips
• AMD: Susquehanna $550→$620 (+12.7%). MarketBeat comparison
• TSM TSMC: Weiss upgraded rating from Hold (C+) to Buy (B).
• AVGO Broadcom: Tigress Financial initiated coverage on October 22 with Buy rating, target price $600.
• LRCX Lam Research: Q2 guidance basically met consensus expectations but did not exceed high market expectations; management stated supply chain constraints caused some shipments to be delayed to the March quarter, total volume unaffected; after earnings Needham $390→$290 (-25.6%).Brothers, this BTC open interest chart clearly explains the long-short battle.
Current price 79455, down 1.41%. Looking at the open interest trend: from the end of September to mid-October, OI climbed from 27,000 BTC to over 30,000, indicating this rally was built up by leveraged funds, not driven by spot buying.
The key is the recent wave—when the price surged near 82,000, OI simultaneously peaked at 32,400 BTC, with a nominal value of 2.6 billion U. Then the price started to fall, and OI quickly shrank to 28,300. What does this mean? The first drop was due to long positions being passively liquidated and actively closed, representing leverage clearing.
But note, now the price has dropped to 79,455, and OI has bounced back from 28,300 to 30,700. This means someone is reopening positions at the low—possibly bottom-fishing longs or adding shorts. Combined with the liquidation pain point chart just now, the long position danger zone below is around 79,700, and these newly opened longs are right on the edge.
Comparing with ETH makes it clearer: ETH’s open interest has dropped 20% in a month, leverage has mostly been washed out; but BTC’s OI remains above 30,000 at a high level, indicating leverage hasn’t been fully cleared.
In plain language—BTC’s current drop hasn’t finished washing out leverage, and there’s likely another dip ahead
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC 24-hour spot fund flow released! BTC dumped over 70 million in a single day, while ETH and SOL attracted funds against the trend, market divergence is extreme
📊24-hour spot funds:
✅ BTC: 24-hour net outflow of 71.2289 million U
12-hour net outflow of 21.4446 million U | 6-hour net outflow of 36.9326 million U
✅ ETH: 24-hour net inflow of 2.8325 million U
12-hour net inflow of 1.9083 million U | 6-hour net outflow of 29.8514 million U
✅ SOL: 24-hour net inflow of 8.6306 million U
12-hour net inflow of 6.1044 million U | 6-hour net outflow of 0.708 million U
Key points:
The daily-level divergence has reached its peak, BTC and XRP continue to dump and flow out, with BTC’s single-day net outflow exceeding 70 million, making it the core source of selling pressure in the entire market.
But on the other side, a quiet turnaround has begun: ETH and SOL daily levels have turned positive first, and the 12-hour level also maintains inflows, indicating that mid-to-short-term funds are gradually accumulating at low levels; USDC even shows net inflows in both daily and 12-hour periods, with cumulative entry exceeding 20 million, and on-site liquidity is continuously replenished.
A typical rhythm of dumping while absorbing, funds have not fully exited, but are rotating from BTC into assets like ETH and SOL, with sector divergence cutting, not a full collapse.
Just a personal view, trading is self-reliance
#SpotFundFlow #BTCMarket #MarketAnalysis #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ robinhood chain, Robinhood's blockchain, where users trade stock tokens. From October 6 to 12, decentralized exchange trading volume dropped by 30% to $6.35 billion. However, from September 30 to October 12, the total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance rose to $1.058 billion, with the lending protocol Morpho holding $486.8 million in outstanding loans on the chain. Therefore, lending has now become a significant use case, not just trading. That week, borrowers on Morpho paid about $417,000 in interest and liquidation bonuses, but Morpho recorded zero protocol revenue. $SIGN Many people are waiting for $BTC to drop again to the long lower wick of its historical bottom, but they overlook the macro background behind that extreme drop back then.
At that time, the SEC sued Binance and CZ, sued Coinbase, tried to freeze Binance US assets, and the Federal Reserve also released hawkish signals.
These negative factors combined to create that kind of panic selling.
Now, unless there is a bigger negative factor yet to be released, I won’t blindly focus on that wick waiting to bottom fish.
History can be referenced, but it doesn’t necessarily repeat.
Are buyers still waiting in the fourth quarter?
My approach is: to dollar-cost average into $BTC in batches over the next few weeks.
The current roughly 9% pullback is not exaggerated in a bull market. $ETH Buy when no one cares, sell when the crowd is roaring. You ask me what the mainstream thinks, I just watch lying down.
It's not hard to see that in the past two weeks, the #Ethereum spot ETF has had a net outflow of over 500 million, the market has plummeted, retail investors have all shouted and fled, but upon careful observation, I found three signals:
First, the selling pressure is exhausting. #BlackRock institution ETHA was dumping every day before, on the 14th it ran 110 million, but on the 23rd, it directly stopped, what does this mean? It means the big money's strength to dump is used up.
Second, looking at the smart money, Fidelity FETH had consecutive small declines last week, quietly absorbing over 20 million. Grayscale's small funds also started turning positive, indicating institutions are quietly accumulating at low levels. Those running now are the shaken-out retail investors; those taking over are the ones who understand.
Third, the funds are not leaving the market, they are relocating. You think the money ran away? No, it just moved from ETH to BTC. This shows institutions are not bearish on crypto; they are just reallocating internally. Once $BTC starts to rise, ETH, which has been stagnant for a long time, will be even stronger than BTC.
With the midterm elections approaching, the mainstream dips again but does not break recent lows; instead, it remains resilient, indicating large orders are still supporting the bottom and resisting the fall. Once the mainstream counterattacks, the extent of the rise is predictable.
In the short term, don't rush to go all in. Wait for BlackRock to switch from "redeem" to "buy"; that turning point is the real signal to attack. Now is the time to bottom out, accumulate quietly, and lay ambush. Today's data summarized in one sentence:
Bitcoin: Whales hold firm without selling, while retail investors are frantically moving coins into exchanges, the most intense in half a year.
First, let's look at retail investors.
In April, $5.5 billion worth of Bitcoin was transferred to exchanges in one month.
Now, it's $10.75 billion.
Doubled.
Now, the whales.
Since the end of August, their transfers have decreased by 36%.
The amount transferred by retail investors is 2.8 times that of whales.
Why are retail investors rushing to transfer?
Transferring coins doesn't mean selling, but once coins are on exchanges, they can be sold anytime.
Simply put: they're scared.
The price is stuck at 80,000, they just want a rebound to recover some losses and get out quickly.
Why don't whales move?
They accumulated at low prices, selling at 80,000 isn't profitable.
October inflation data dropped 3.3%, yet they still don't move.
They haven't fled; they're waiting for better prices.
The question now is: who will sell?
If the price rises further and whales still don't move — all sellers will be retail investors, who will collectively exit halfway through the rise.
If whales move — sellers will double, and the price will drop even faster.
My stance:
Whales are waiting for high prices, small retail investors fear further drops.
Let's not follow emotions, but watch the whales' positions.When I saw this at night, I stared at the "$50 million" for a few seconds. The number itself may not be the scariest part; what really keeps people awake is that the financing ceiling might constrain the project's roadmap even before the product and users do. 🌙
According to Lummis, the Democrats previously requested to lower the annual financing cap under the Regulation Crypto framework from $75 million to $50 million and add a $200 million lifetime financing cap; the Republicans accepted these two requests and incorporated them into the CLARITY Act.
My judgment is that this is somewhat negative for the US crypto industry but more like a tiered screening rather than an immediate shutdown of the industry. Early-stage projects have to handle R&D, auditing, compliance, and market expansion simultaneously. Once the annual quota tightens, the financing rhythm may be fragmented; with a lifetime cap, the space for continuous financing will also narrow, and capital will more easily favor teams with existing users or revenue.
If the rules end up with very narrow boundaries, project teams might arrange part of their issuance and operations in other jurisdictions—this is my speculation, not a confirmed subsequent event. A reminder to myself: don’t just focus on the eye-catching "$50 million" figure; also consider who can use it, how to declare it, and where the exemption boundaries lie. Who else is still awake at this hour, watching how this bill will affect project financing?导语 市场料将测试75000～78000区间。 本文所提及市场、项目、币种等资讯、观点及判断，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 撰文 0xWeilan @ eMerge IS 本周$BTC BTC在79,107—84,856美元之间反复拉锯，全周微跌0.76%，走势相当疲弱。宏观一侧，美国经济依然在“强劲”和“隐患”之间撕裂，油价带来的通胀隐忧未消，好在美债收益率和加息预期本周有所收敛，美元指数基本横盘。另一边，市场开始猛烈质疑科技巨头AI资本开支的变现周期，风险偏好收紧，直接逼着BTC向下砸盘测试支撑。
BTC日线走势（Coinbase） 回到加密市场，场外通道并不差——ETF一周吸金约3亿美元，长手没动，短手在加仓，“鲸鲨”群体也在逆势吸筹。盘面隐忧在于：交易所里的抛压在悄悄堆积，短期持有者的利润被持续挤压，衍生品未平仓量还在往上推。现在的核心博弈就是场内这口疲软的现货买盘，到底能不能消化掉涌出来的边际抛压，市场正处于反弹受阻后的弱势平衡中。下周美联储议息会议加一连串经济数据砸过来，这个弱平衡很快就会面临考验。 按「EMC Labs BTC周期研判模型」，大盘目前处于大涨后的“修复期$MAGIC mid-term trend is downward, but there is a very high short-term risk of a "short squeeze" pbit anomaly. Under such extreme negative funding rates, the probability of the whales pulling a spike to blow out the shorts is very high. Look for opportunities to exit first
Long-short ratio:
Retail side: Binance retail account long-short ratio is 0.7599 (bearish), OKX retail account long-short ratio is 1.17.
Whale side: Whale account long-short ratio is 0.8975, but whale position long-short ratio is as high as 1.5041
Funds and on-chain data: Spot market is bleeding heavily, but the main force is "secretly repositioning"
Capital flow: Coinglass shows a 24-hour net spot outflow of $6.26 million, and contract outflow of $3.97 million.
On the surface, funds seem to be fleeing wildly, but on-chain entity data hides a mystery:
Chip relocation: In the past 24 hours, Upbit (Korean exchange) increased holdings by 27.19% (about $1.67 million), Gate increased holdings by 56.79% (about $920,000), Bybit increased holdings by 25.69% (about $710,000).
Meanwhile, Bitget reduced holdings. This indicates that the main force has not completely given up, but has concentrated spot chips and transferred them to these specific exchanges, especially Upbit!
$BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Q1 revenue was about $4.38 billion, up approximately 55% year-over-year, non-GAAP EPS about 4.64, up approximately 161% year-over-year. The midpoint of next quarter's guidance is thrown out at about $5.1 billion and about 5.80 EPS, yet on Friday $WDC still closed around 343.67, down about 3%—I suspect the market doubts the "AI storage price increase" can hold.
Company statement: revenue about $4.381 billion, non-GAAP gross margin about 58.1% (last year about 43.9%), operating cash flow about $1.6 billion, free cash flow about $1.38 billion, dividend raised about 17% to $0.175.
Q2 guidance midpoint revenue about $5.1 billion, non-GAAP EPS midpoint about 5.80. The numbers are solid.
I believe demand is still there, but I also believe that Friday's bearish candle (open about 346, high about 360.7, low about 339.6) discounts whether ASP can continue to rise; I don't think the premium from the price increase has already been fully priced in around 343.
First watch if it can hold around 340–344; if it recovers to about 354–360, then we can talk about whether sentiment has been repaired; if the daily close breaks below about 339–340 down to about 332, it leans more toward "pricing is unsustainable."
Do you trust the guidance that price increases can continue, or do you believe Friday already knocked out the premium?
$WDC
$STX
#Today'sMarketTalkLast night ETH fell below 2300, and Big Brother Maji's 25x long position was fully liquidated, with cumulative losses exceeding $35.37 million. After liquidation, only $5,357 remained in the address.
The hardest part isn't losing money, it's the timing difference. The liquidation happened late at night, and 8 hours later ETH rose back to 2350. The direction was right, but the position was gone. This kind of mistake is the most painful and common because when reviewing, you realize your judgment was actually correct.
The tolerance for a 25x leverage is only 4%. ETH dropped from 2350 to 2300, a 2.1% decline, which doesn't seem much, but with 25x leverage, more than half of the principal was already wiped out, and the rest was taken away by the liquidation engine with one click. The ETH/USDT depth is already calculated, with very little slippage, so the problem is never liquidity, but that the position size itself was too large.
Many people think liquidation means the judgment was wrong. In fact, most liquidations happen because the judgment was right, but the position couldn't hold until the market bounced back. Leverage amplifies not the profit, but the need for precision down to the minute, and the market never gives that precision.
My approach is simple: single position size does not exceed 5% of total funds, leverage is controlled within 3x, stop-loss orders are set in advance with conditional orders, and I don't rely on manual monitoring. This way, if the direction is wrong, you just earn less, not go to zero.
The market always has opportunities, but the principal only comes once. $ETH