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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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850美元的ZEC,你敢追吗? 先看表面:从450一路干到888,翻倍只用了两周。 近一周涨超60%,近一月涨超70%,创8年新高。24小时期货量爆到数十亿美元,市场FOMO到极致。周线倒头肩突破,Ichimoku多头排列完整,大级别反转已确认,上涨空间打开了。 第一件事:ETF来了,但你可能在接最后一棒。 Grayscale多次修订SEC文件,拟将Zcash信托转为现货ETF(ZCSH),可能在NYSE Arca上市。市场直接疯了——"首个隐私币现货ETF"这个叙事,比比特币ETF还稀缺。 ETF提交的消息,从5月就开始传了。为什么现在才暴涨? 因为狗庄需要你追高。消息是真的,但价格已经从450涨到了888。利好没变,变的是你的FOMO程度。 第二件事:矿业机构化,但散户只剩接盘的命。 Winklevoss兄弟支持的Cypherpunk Technologies启动大规模ZEC挖矿,占网络算力约18%,并持有大量ZEC。Ironwood升级激活,新屏蔽池上线首日就有大额流入。 机构挖矿成本可能只有300-400美元,他们在450以下已经建仓完毕。现在850,是他们的出货区间,不是建仓区间。 NU7币持有者投票8月25日启动,治理叙事很强。但每次治理投票前后,都是波动率最高的时间段。 第三件事:技术面出现了必须警惕的信号。 日线RSI 80-88,极度超买。布林带上轨受压,MACD柱体虽为正但动能可能放缓。从450到888,几乎没有像样的回调——抛物线越陡,摔得越狠。 支撑在800-820,如果能守住,还有机会冲900-1000。如果跌破780,第一目标650,第二目标600甚至455。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: Grayscale Zcash ETF持续推进,首个隐私币现货ETF 周线倒头肩突破,大级别反转确认 矿业机构化,Winklevoss系重仓 Ironwood升级+NU7投票,生态活跃 隐私叙事在AI监控时代越来越值钱 一边是: 一周涨60%,一月涨70%,严重超买 RSI 80-88,历史上每次到这个位置都有一波回调 机构成本300-400,850是出货区间 ETF预期已部分定价,容易"sell the news" 监管风险:隐私币始终是靶子 关键位置 上方阻力:888(8年新高)→ 900-960 → 1000(心理关口) 下方支撑:820-800 → 780(破位走人)→ 750 → 600-650 操作策略 短线选手: 820-800分批低吸,止损780,第一目标880-900,第二目标1000。 稳健玩家: 等放量突破888并站稳再追,止损前高下方,目标1000+。或者等回调到750-780区间再建仓,盈亏比更划算。 空头/对冲: 只在日线收盘跌破780后考虑,目标600-650。 仓位管理: 总仓位不超过10-20%,严格止损。ZEC波动率极高,过往暴涨后常有30%+回调。别All in,别扛单,留现金等机会。 ZEC现在就像2021年的SOL——* 从5块涨到50,所有人说"贵了",结果涨到200。但从50跌回20的时候,骂得最狠的也是同一批人。 888突破的那一天,你会发现: 原来不是ZEC不行,是你每次都在最高点追、最低点割。 你的ZEC成本是多少? 850这个位置,你敢上车吗? $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC突破80000美元,能否站稳新关口
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
Bitcoin just broke through $80,000, and the whole market is celebrating. Strategy, the largest Bitcoin whale on Earth, didn’t move a muscle last week. From August 17 to 23, Strategy sold 18.26 million shares of MSTR stock through the ATM program, raising $2 billion net. And then? Not a single BTC was bought. Holdings stayed at 840,447 coins, completely unchanged. But that’s not the point. The point is— They now hold $6.7 billion in cash. $5.1 billion in USD Reserve, plus $1.59 billion newly established USD Cash. $6.7 billion sitting in the account. That’s equivalent to 0.56% of Bitcoin’s total market cap, and about one-third of the daily trading volume. This is not pocket change; this is a nuclear bomb. Strategy’s past playbook was simple: raise funds → buy BTC → raise funds again → buy more BTC. But this time it’s different. After getting $2 billion, $136 million was used to repurchase STRC preferred shares, $300 million replenished the USD Reserve, and the rest was all put into the newly established USD Cash account. The CEO publicly said: “As of August 23, Strategy holds about 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply, with net leverage at 0%.” Net leverage at 0%. A company that once bought coins on borrowed money now says it’s zero-leverage. It’s like the gambler you know who always goes all-in suddenly telling you he’s now holding only cash, no chips. Do you believe it? I don’t. This is not retreat; this is gathering strength. Next, watch three signal lights: Signal One (short term, 1-2 weeks): What management says. The CEO has already hinted—“plans to continue increasing Bitcoin holdings before year-end.” But words are words, money is money. In the coming weeks, if SEC filings explicitly state “continue to increase BTC holdings,” MSTR’s premium will quickly recover. Currently, MSTR’s mNAV has dropped from a high of 1.4x at the start of the year to about 0.7x—meaning the stock price is cheaper than the value of the Bitcoin it holds. This means the market is selling this “Bitcoin proxy” at a discount. Any signal of accumulation will quickly narrow this discount. Signal Two (mid term, Q4): When the price hits a range, will they act? If BTC pulls back to a range—say $55k-$58k—watch if Strategy makes a move. Note, their average holding cost is $75,385. BTC is now above $80k, so they have an unrealized gain of about $3.4 billion. But what if it falls back? If Strategy acts in the $55k-$58k range, it means they recognize that as the “value zone.” This will be the strongest psychological support in the market—if even the biggest whale is buying at this level, what is there to fear? Signal Three (long term): Where will the money go? $6.7 billion, three paths: First, buy BTC. The most direct path, the strongest buying pressure. Put $6.7 billion in, see how much BTC can be pulled up. Second, large-scale repurchase of MSTR stock. If management chooses this path, it means they believe their company is seriously undervalued—mNAV at 0.7x is indeed cheap. This would also indirectly support BTC, since MSTR itself is a proxy asset for BTC. Third, continue paying down debt and optimize capital structure. The dullest but most stable path—zero-leverage Strategy is a Strategy that can survive until the next bull market. My personal bet: $6.7 billion won’t all go down one path, but one path will definitely lead to BTC. Operational advice, simple and direct: For BTC spot holders: Strategy’s “gathering strength” is not bearish. A whale holding $6.7 billion in cash with zero leverage can act at any time. Be patient and wait for Q4 catalysts. For MSTR traders: Short term faces pressure from premium contraction—mNAV dropped from 1.4x to 0.7x, which hurts. But long term, a financially healthier MSTR should enjoy a higher valuation multiple than a “high-leverage gambler.” The discount is an opportunity, as long as you can withstand volatility. $6.7 billion is not for bank deposits. Trump’s bragging and Fed’s talk can’t affect BTC’s long-term trend. But Strategy’s $6.7 billion is real money. This money will definitely be put to use—either turned into BTC or into credit endorsement for MSTR. Either way, it’s worth more attention than politicians’ words. This is the real “smart money movement.” $BTC $MSTR $XSTRC #Strategy增发扩充现金,BTC配置节奏受关注

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