The Central Planner price

Next week (July 21-27) will be a week of information overload and extreme sensitivity in market sentiment. In the absence of the Federal Reserve, Europe's policy decisions, global Flash PMI, and the earnings reports of tech giants will collectively determine whether the market leans towards optimism or pessimism. The European Central Bank is currently at a very awkward crossroads. The interest rate cut in June seemed more like a politically correct gesture, aimed at demonstrating its decision-making independence from the Federal Reserve, and responding to concerns from some Southern European countries about the economy. However, the rebound in inflation data (June CPI 2.7%) has ruthlessly slapped Lagarde in the face, making the option of continuous rate cuts in Europe very dangerous, and this week there is a high probability that Europe will shift towards a hawkish stance and stop cutting rates. Additionally, on July 24, the S&P Global will release the Flash PMI for manufacturing/services in the US, Eurozone, UK, Japan, Australia, India, etc., which can be considered a direct indicator of the global economic health. Let’s talk about why this PMI is important. First, the inventory replenishment in manufacturing in June is likely temporary, as the market currently cannot determine whether the replenishment is a passive response to low inventory levels or if non-end demand is indeed recovering. The question is whether the replenishment of manufacturing inventory is accompanied by a sustained increase in new orders. Moreover, the services PMI is crucial, as the service sector is the main driver of growth and inflation in developed economies. Whether it can achieve a soft landing still depends on the momentum in the service sector, and the persistently high prices in the service sector also pose a risk of lowering expectations for rate cuts in September. Finally, the earnings reports from tech companies are also the most impactful aspect for the crypto space. The focus is mainly on the earnings reports of Alphabet (Google) and Tesla, and of course, the focus is no longer just on the performance of these two companies; it’s about whether the core logic supporting this bull market narrative around AI can continue. Google's issue lies in its high valuation; the future is whether it can maintain such a high valuation. Tesla's issue is whether Robotaxi and Optimus can be realized, and whether there is enough money to spend. We will have to wait for the reports to be made public to judge; if the earnings reports are poor, it may be time to gradually sell off AI-related positions.

I don’t have any thesis. But I lowkey think $Trump can run back to its high. Or maybe I am retarded.

Have a great Sunday ☀️

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