如何给circle估值,主要是拍脑袋法,假设美联储未来十年平均中性利率2.5%-3%,假设稳定币市场规模到1万亿美金、usdc占比30%,扣除分给coinbase一半的收入、随着支付网络扩大逐渐减少补贴,最终获得发行规模×1%的净利润率。5年后总发行规模3000亿、利润30亿、给与20倍pe,600亿市值。5年3倍,中等机会。这种假设,业绩上偏乐观,估值上偏保守。最大的风险是美股和美国经济黑天鹅+暴力降息,那业绩和估值都难看,那是极端情况,不排除。
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