I was browsing Polymarket and saw some bets that I feel are skewed: Erling Haaland as the top goalscorer in Premier League 25/26: Bet NO. Odds: 3.89 which implies that the market on Polymarket has him as a 75% favorite to take this home. Haaland leads this by 9 goals, the next on the list has 6 goals, but it's only played 7 matches out of 38, and injuries might happen, he might lose form, etc. No doubt he is the favorite and he is a fantastic goalscorer, but the other players should have at least 30% to snitch him (odds: 3.33). This gives us a +EV bet on $16.7 (in the long run we are expected to win $16 for every $100 we wager with these odds. MegaETH FDV one day after launch over 2b: Bet YES. Odds: 1.28. One of the most hyped projects over the last 2 years together with Monad. By the amount of dogshit that has been launched over the years and that still is over 2b FDV, this feels like a no-brainer to me. If you like include stablecoins there's 83 coins that have a FDV over 2b. I give this at least 80% probability, which makes it +EV. Other bets I think will go in, but I am not sure if the odds are +EV: -Aster all time high by Dec 31st: YES -Pepe ETF in 2025: NO -Lighter FDV over 2b: YES -Lighter airdrop before Dec 31st: YES -Will ETH hit $17,000 in 2025: NO PS: you get 4% APR on your bets and you can sell the bets at the market price at any time.

Haaland at 2.32 odds now