The financial market is heading into a recession. If someone tells you this, it is simply an uncertain guess. Because even economists have predicted recessions incorrectly: • In 2007, two-thirds did not see this happening. • In 2022, two-thirds thought it was about to happen. A recession is when real GDP is negative for two consecutive quarters. With the latest announcement, the real GDP for Q2 in the U.S. has increased the most in two years. The clearest evidence shows that there is no recession here. But that is the present. The future remains a question mark that no one can be sure about. Because monetary policy has a certain lag before it creates a real impact, fully permeating the economy (this is referred to as "long and variable lags"). → Therefore, the way the market is rising but with a bit of caution is understandable. And your job is to follow closely, especially during periods with many uncertainties, like the present. This is a precaution to be ready for both scenarios of recession and no recession. For now, if no other special variables appear, we are experiencing more upside than downside - those holding assets are holding the handle of the knife, while those holding cash are in the opposite position and are looking for ways to hold the handle. You can clearly see this when looking back at how the market has grown recently: Gold (a safe haven asset) has increased, and at the same time, risky assets have also risen. Additionally, the job situation is moving in the opposite direction to the growth trend of assets. I have analyzed these factors in detail in the IVY Newsletter reading last Sunday along with some special observations from the week. Link to the article in TWEET 2, you can read more details 👇 ——— When no one talks about a recession anymore (when it officially becomes a recession or when no one is worried about a recession), that is when it becomes scarier. Because at that point, most people are aligned in the same direction. And when everyone stands in the same direction, it often has a high likelihood of being the peak of the cycle.