[Skills to Improve Trading Win Rate] I would like to share some important things I consider when trading. These are survival methods I have learned and honed over the years in the national and altcoin markets, as well as principles I strive to uphold. You may already know some of this, but I hope you find it interesting. I will try to express the jumble of thoughts in my head in a somewhat organized manner. 1. Trade in the hottest themes and sectors in the market. 2. If there are multiple tokens in one theme or sector, always trade the leading token. 3. To determine what the leading token is, consider factors such as whether the project is at the center of the issue (narrative), how often it comes up in discussions among users, as well as market cap, FDV, growth rate, trading volume, etc. (Personally, I place significant importance on sufficient FDV, trading volume, and growth rate.) 4. Avoid trading second-tier, third-tier, or latecomer tokens as much as possible. For example, if Ripple has good news and rises by 50%, but Stellar Lumens only rises by 10%, thinking 'Stellar Lumens is the next runner, I will definitely follow it!' and buying Stellar Lumens instead of Ripple means that when Ripple rises further, Stellar Lumens will rise less, and if Ripple falls, Stellar Lumens is likely to fall more. If you continue to trade primarily second-tier and third-tier tokens, your trading win rate will drop significantly. Additionally, second-tier, third-tier, and latecomer tokens are usually relatively low-cap and not solid projects, and they often have many traps. 5. The reason trading leading tokens results in a higher win rate is that they tend to rise more when they go up, fall less when they go down, and have a higher probability of bouncing back, allowing for opportunities to exit even if you get caught at a high price with a small loss or by averaging down. In contrast, second-tier, third-tier, and latecomer tokens are likely to die off in a one-way manner once the issue is over. In light of the current situation, I believe it is better to put real effort into Ethereum rather than playing beta with half-baked ideas. 6. Instead of predicting and buying in advance, it may be more probable to buy when the rise you anticipated actually begins. For example, if you think Ethereum will break $4,000 and buy in advance but it falls, it can be hard to hold on. The likelihood of repeating buying and cutting losses increases, which can lead to a poor risk-reward ratio, and the money being tied up during that time is also a cost. It might be more profitable to wait until it breaks a significant level like $4,000 before buying. This isn't just hindsight! What if it breaks and then drops again? If it can't hold the breakout level and drops, you have to cut losses... But buying after seeing it break is a completely different approach than predicting it will break and buying, and the win rates will differ as well. 7. In a similar vein, do not recklessly predict and act on the next sector; instead, think and organize ideas in advance (prepare scenarios) and move when the market actually moves that way. For example, if Ethereum has risen significantly, thinking that Solana will also experience explosive growth and then taking profits on Ethereum and moving everything to Solana is not advisable. How much more will Ethereum rise? And when will Solana rise? Of course, it’s a valid idea and the probability of it rising is high, but it’s uncertain whether that will happen in a week or two weeks. I believe trading is not about hitting the future but rather about responding to it. Buying after confirming is more comfortable and has a better win rate. If my average price for Ethereum was $3,000 and I took profits at $3,100 or cut losses at $2,900, then seeing it break $4,000, I might think, 'I originally had 1 Ethereum, but if I buy now, I’ll only have 0.6... I can’t buy at this price because it hurts.' But I need to try not to think that way. That kind of thinking is meaningless; I should just shout 'Damn!!!' at my past self and shake it off, and then close my eyes and buy at least 0.6 Ethereum, which I consider a response. I apologize for being a bit disorganized... I hope this helps you all in some way. Thank you.
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