What happens once BMNR trades below 1x NAV?
Bull case – Market arbitrages the free value, pushing it back above 1x NAV.
Base case – Nothing happens. Stock trades below 1x NAV for a while. Company remains frozen until a catalyst pushes the price up.
Bear case – Triggers max panic among shareholders. Cash on hand is used to buy back stock—or worst case, ETH is sold to support the stock.
It gets interesting when you think about:
1. What happens if the stock repeatedly trades below 1x NAV?
2. What are the implications for other TCOs?
The worst-case scenario is a complete meltdown of multiple TCOs, where the sell-off from one company pushes down stock prices of another which increases probability of one selling eth.
This could create an inverse flywheel—likely spilling over to non-Ethereum TCOs too.
There’s like a 1–2% chance of a global crypto meltdown happening in August.
TCOs trading below 1x NAV could be the trigger.
In 98% of cases, nothing serious happens when a TCO trades below 1x NAV.
But there is a path where a sharp sell-off in one treasury company’s stock leads to a cascading sell-off across other TCO stocks.
With every additional TCO that trades below 1x NAV, the probability of one of them selling ETH to buy back stock increases.
If one TCO sells ETH, it becomes very likely that another will follow.
This could trigger an inverse flywheel where everyone starts selling ETH.
And we could see a spillover into non-ETH TCOs, as they’re also forced to liquidate their treasuries to stop their stocks from going to zero.
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