On the question of whether $ETH prices are fearful of high prices, I have a data that can provide an alternative perspective: That is Ethos, which was very popular some time ago! Since this project is currently entering a period of depletion of traffic, many players who use ETH as collateral on it have gradually begun to withdraw... The reason is not that I think these ETH are risky, but because I feel that ETH is rising very well and want to sell it for profit! Most players stake very little ETH on it, generally less than 1 ETH, so observing their unlocking behavior can be reflected as a side reflection of retail investor sentiment. After ETH broke through $2500, I can see 5~6 people every week who have unsecured and completely unlocked all the guaranteed ETH, and their unlocking represents the belief that ETH will not rise in the short term... As long as this unlocking behavior can continue, it means that people are still handing over their chips to the main force, and the bullish trend of ETH has not stopped. After all, who would destroy their hard-earned credibility for 1 or 2 ETH? Only retail investors... From my point of view, even if the players on Ethos are not optimistic about this project, they will not easily unstake, after all, the reputation score will drop a lot when the guarantee is released, and I will also release the guarantee for me, and I can see that their score is directly deducted 30~50 points... Therefore, it can be concluded that only those who care about this little amount of money will do this... That must be retail investors... Otherwise, it is even more impossible to explain why the more ETH rises, the more people unguarantee...
$ETH 历史筹码峰值区域在早上周线收盘后,正式完成突破! 目前仅剩高位3800美元的一点点残余供应,如果能够继续突破,ETH的二级市场上就几乎不存在套牢盘了! 如果说过去3年ETH的弱势来自长期高位供应的压制,那么经过这三年的持续消耗,供应已经释放的差不多了,突破这个最后供应区从筹码层面上会 带来类似供应消失的现象。 简单说来就是供需关系中仅剩下盈利筹码,而没有套牢筹码的供应了! 这种情况下,只需要少量的需求,价格就可以持续上行,预期ETH会有持续1个月的缩量阴涨行情,直到放量出现。 当然,这一切的前提,都是当前市场有能力完成这个最后供应区的突破。 至于交易思路,我的建议是,持有现货的优势大于期货,未来一旦突破,波动不会小,涨20%,跌10%的节奏会常常出现,拿稳现货可以规避掉大部分极端波动风险。 我在3638按计划止盈了30%的现货,全部是按照长期计划进行的,如果价格可以突破新高,我还会止盈20%,留下剩下的50%现货长期持有。 想要拿的久,就必须适当止盈,否则随着价格持续上涨,一不小心就会做出“赚的够多了,清仓!”这样的操作。 从而导致错过最后的高潮行情!
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