EOY 2025 Ethereum Price Scenarios (Current Price: $2,400) Repricing the ETH Thesis in a Fear-Driven Market Recalibrated Core Metrics: Annualized Protocol Revenue: ~$7.3B (Source: Token Terminal) Circulating Supply: ~120.1M ETH (Source: Etherscan) Implied P/S Multiple: At $2,400, ETH trades at ~40x P/S — a level that reflects high uncertainty and defensive positioning. This revised baseline reframes our forward-looking price bands within a market pricing in fear, not fundamentals. A. Bear Case — "The Washout" Narrative: ETF demand evaporates. Macro risk-off dominates. On-chain activity contracts, and forced liquidations cascade. The crypto market enters a new downcycle led by capitulation, not valuation. Assumptions: Fee Revenue: -20% → $5.84B P/S Multiple: Contracts to 25x Price Target: → ($5.84B × 25) / 120.1M = $1,216 Implication: A break of structural support. ETH trades near cycle lows, despite underlying infrastructure improvements. Institutions step back. Retail exits. B. Base Case — "The Slow Re-Accumulation" Narrative: ETH finds equilibrium. $2,400 proves to be a long-term accumulation zone. Institutional inflows persist at a measured pace. On-chain revenue gradually improves with ecosystem stability and renewed developer activity. Assumptions: Fee Revenue: +15% → $8.40B P/S Multiple: Recovers to 45x Price Target: → ($8.40B × 45) / 120.1M = $3,147 Implication: A measured repricing. No hype-driven surge, but steady conviction rebuilds. ETH regains momentum as a productive, institutional-grade asset. C. Bull Case — "The Spring-Coil Effect" Narrative: The market has overshot to the downside. ETH supply is thin across exchanges. A macro or sector-specific catalyst—such as regulatory clarity, AI-on-chain, or explosive ETF inflows—releases pent-up demand. The market re-rates ETH rapidly. Assumptions: Fee Revenue: +50% → $10.95B P/S Multiple: Expands to 60x Price Target: → ($10.95B × 60) / 120.1M = $5,470 Implication: This is a sharp and aggressive rally—reclaiming new highs not through hype, but by a fundamental mismatch between price and on-chain performance. The Analyst’s Thesis: At $2,400, ETH is trading at pessimistic multiples last seen during distressed phases. But the fee base remains strong, and institutional structures (ETFs, staking, custody) are in place. This creates clear asymmetry: Downside to Bear Case: -49% Upside to Base Case: +31% Upside to Bull Case: +128% The setup favors accumulation, not euphoria. The repricing is a function of fee trajectory and capital rotation—not hope. This is the new post-hype reality. And that’s where disciplined capital wins.